***GWarner27's Week Eight CFB Picks (9-7 56.3% YTD)***

+1.20

Dogs 3-4 -1.40
Faves 5-1 +3.90
Over 0-1 -1.10
Under 0-1 -1.10
1st Half 0-0 +0.00
Halftimes 1-0 +1.00
Buybacks: 0-0 -0.10

Posted History
2007-08: 56-41-8 (57.7%) +22.127
2008-09: 45-42-3 (51.7%) -5.112
2009-10: 23-39-0 (37.1%) -15.303
2010-11: 36-46-2 (43.9%) -12.52

Futures
2007-08: 0-0 (0%) +0.00
2008-09: 0-1 (0%) -2.826
2009-10: 0-0 (0%) +0.00
2010-11: 2-2 (50%) -0.35
2011-12:
South Carolina to win SEC East (+260): 4-1 (T1st)
Baylor UNDER 6.5 wins (-145): 4-2

Dog wins SU: 3
Beating the line 2010: +36.0
Beating the line 2011: +1.0

Last Week:
-Michigan State ended up cashing and I think it was the only bet you could make on the game, but they played undisciplined football from jumping offsides on the first play to numerous personal fouls and they also fumbled the game back into doubt when all they had to do was keep the ball and punt. Pretty good day with USC winning and Baylor losing, but Vandy fell on a punt instead of returning it into the endzone and that may cost me my USC to win the East. Need UGA to lose this week to Florida, or in their second-to-last SEC game vs. Auburn...

Line guesses:
ARI 3.5
WVU 13.5
LOU 2.5
FSU 13.5
Ok State 9.5
WFU 2.5
K-State 6.5
GT 3.5
CLEM 10.5
ILL 11.5
Cincy 2
Iowa 17.5
UVA 7
ARK 18
VT 20.5
Cal 1
ORE 24.5
NEB 23.5
BOI 24.5
TAMU 14.5
Navy 3
LSU 18
Vandy 8.5
PSU 1.5
Bama 20
ND 9.5
OU 30.5
STAN 21.5
WIS 7.5
Wazzu 7

while I totally feel more comfortable playing dogs, here's two more faves...

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Washington State -4 (-110) vs. Oregon State
-The Cougs have no idea what it's like to be favorites in conference play, especially laying more than a possession, but I like what Paul Wulff has done in Pullman. Starting QB Jeff Tuel returned last week and wasn't great against Stanford, but that can be said about anybody considering the roll the Cardinal are on right now. Oregon State has been really unimpressive this year, and I just don't know if they can go on the road and keep it under a possession against a team going in the opposite direction that they're headed. Oregon State had an interception return and still struggled to make it a game at home against BYU, plus they wouldn't have covered this line against anyone besides FCS Sacramento State (who they lost to). I made this line closer to a touchdown and I expect it moves toward that number.
Wisconsin -7 (-110) @ Michigan State
-Arguments can certainly be made about how poor Wisconsin's schedule has been or how they've yet to do anything on the road, but the talent difference here is extreme. Michigan State stopped UM last week and cashed my -1, but the only way they did that was by showing zero respect for Michigan's passing game. Their idea to stop UM was to blitz their corners on almost every play, which Denard Robinson couldn't punish them for doing. Wisconsin is going to run on the Spartans, and if they employ a similar strategy Russell Wilson will throw all over them making this a blowout really quickly. Being a senior, I would expect more from Cousins and his receiving corps. They should have some success against the Badgers defense, but I think they'll be in catch-up mode all game long and we've clearly seen Coach Bielema run up the score so I'm not as worried about the backdoor.

The talent difference is extreme?  Hardly.  Wisconsin and Michigan State have very similar talent levels.

gl gwarner feel like wsu maybe my spread play of the week

good luck warner,on both WSU,and Wisky   

Agree to disagree I guess, but I was far from satisfied by that MSU defense and as a team they were so undisciplined I can't imagine it's 100% because of being little brother in the rivalry. That may have played a major factor in it, but they were reckless with the personal fouls, jumping offside, RTPs and they were careless with the football, too.

If MSU can keep stop Wisconsin, I don't expect to win. The same can be said if they can keep up with them on the scoreboard because I don't think either are likely to happen even if they're the home team. Sparty is going to need to force a bunch of turnovers, which I don't see, or dominate the return game to stay in it until the end. Even if that happens I could still push, so I'll take my chances as I doubt we see 6.5 again

Can't blame you shakes, think the line is low even when you consider how Wazzu hasn't been the favorite in a long, lonnnnnnnnnnnnnng time

Glad to see, if nothing else, that a Sparty backer came away from that game unimpressed with them.  I suppose you are right in the sense it was either MSU or no bet in that one, and I shouldn't have been so stubborn in forcing a play on Michigan in a bad spot...but I just haven't liked what I've seen out of East Lansing.  They deserved the W, but nearly gave it away despite being much better in the 2H.

The spot and the line deserved the play, as did their ability to run the ball down UM's throat, but that was not easy. Even up 14, they made me really nervous with their inability to get a drive going to bleed the clock in what seemed like the entire 4th quarter. The fumbles were terrible, as were the constant offsides and personal fouls that you just can't have in a competitive game.


Honestly it's a good thing UM can't throw, because if they could Sparty wouldn't have won the game

hope we get the 4-5.5 middle on that WSU GW got OSU at 5.5 early... liking Wisky....BOL bud

that would be lovely, at this point I'll take a push considering how it's moved against me and I've been taken to school by this movement

thinking a lot about playing Auburn this weekend...

Positives:
-LSU trying to escape with a win instead of trying to put it on the Tigers with Bama in two weeks
-the Jefferson/Lee combo throwing off momentum and rhythm
-line should reach 24 or even higher
-Moseley started to move the ball a little bit for AU last week
-Chizik is the luckiest coach in the world
-Malzahn will bring out a bunch of tricks
-McCalebb can score on any play (see last year's game)
-LSUs offense isn't about quick scores and they remind me of the '07 team right now laying a ton of points without a tremendous offense
-afternoon game not night

Negatives:
-AU Offense looked terrible last week for the most part
-AU Defense on paper is young and bad
-Tyrann Mathieu
-new QB on the road in the Tiger's den
-LSU could shut them out
-kicking problems

thoughts?

updated leans:
AUB +22.5
Ok St -6.5
Cincy +3

Good luck to you.  I am leaning the same way as you on Ok St.  I am not sure why their is so much love for Missouri on these boards.

there's a point where the road faves start to lose, I'm just not sure how Mizzou is going to score anywhere near enough to cover this spread (similar to my thinking about last week's game).

Weeden was terrible last week and they struggled to do anything, but everytime they needed to make a play he did it. Everytime we blitzed he had an answer.

As for the opponents, I had Texas and Mizzou pretty even at the start of the season and I would rank Texas above Mizzou right now. Okie State has a bad defense, but I don't know if I'd be comfortable playing Mizzou at anything below 14.5

playing this now before it drops based on the news that Spencer Ware, Tyrann Mathieu and another DB have been suspended for this weekend's game...

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Auburn +22 (-110) @ Louisiana State

Auburn !!!

AU

with ya on auburn.  i think they keep it in the spread..

like auburn this week

i honestly liked them before this news, as posted above, and I really don't think the suspension keeps them from winning the game. It takes out a major scoring threat on defense and special teams in Mathieu, which is why I think it's a big deal. Those are the scores you can't have when you're a 22-point dog, while LSU is deep enough at RB to have success even without Casper Ware

kab, ketto, clemezl, DTM

Week Nine:
-Most of these were made before watching Week 8
-Reminder that the * means I'm pretty much guessing

Guesses:
Pitt 9
HOU 20
MIAfl 9.5
TCU 8.5
UMD 9.5
USC 3.5
MICH 16.5
CLEM 6
PSU 2
Miss St 13
NW 6.5
WVU 6.5
FSU 20.5
UNC 6.5
VT 13
LOU 4
OU 17.5
AUB 16
TTU 11 (high?)
Ok St 13
ARK 14.5
Iowa 18
NEB 9.5
Utah 8.5
Cal 2.5
ORE 24.5
WASH 14.5
ASU 23
TAMU 12
SMU 3.5*
ND 15
UGA 6
TEX 29
STAN 13
WIS 10

looking for:
UVA +10 (especially if they lose)
GT +7 (especially if they lose)

interests:
WFU
Okie State o80?