Handicapping vs Process

Enjoy the deep handicapping dives on the thread….there are many ways to skin a cat. 
i lack the level of college football knowledge that cappers have on this forum.  But….I tackle college profitably more with process than handicapping. Some concepts:

1. Have multiple outs. I’m not gonna be profitable with one book. No way no how. 
2. Shop for lines. 
3. Have a North Star book. I use Circa to look up what I feel is a sharp number and work from there. 
4. Pay attention to line movement. 
5. Do not be afraid to play both sides of a RSW total when a middle opportunity arises. 
6. Keep an accurate spreadsheet. 
7. Learn from errors. 
8. If you can’t beat a particular sport stop playing that sport and focus elsewhere. 
9. Work with friend to increase time on task and available to books.  
10. Have a short memory for losses and trust your process. 

I'll add .. find a couple reliable advanced state power rating sources and track the jumps and dips each week.. Just starting w a couple baseline power rating opinions for the season and keeping tabs on the ebbs and flows of these statistically sound models can help keep you grounded in reality ..... Obvi then want to compare the model numbers vs what the sportsbook is offering each week .. combine that with tracking the sportsbook line movement and you'll start wondering if blowing your bankroll on a red hot public fav team thats laying a TD more than the models is still a great idea ..lol .. 

There's alot more you can do from there but all starts w learning to leverage the advanced stat models that experts have already prepared for you .. next step is gotta know that all a model wants to do is be statistically sound for 130 teams .. not provide a sharp line on the couple of games you want to play .. lotta limitations on the accuracy like often use the same HFA for all games, if any ..  ignore pace of play... won't know a good or bad spot or high/low effort game or rivalries .. may not break down particulars of a matchup like run / pass .. doesn't see injuries or personnel changes or new HC/OC/DC's .. models also biased to prior years' successes esp early on makes them less flexible early on, sharper later on .. 

Generally like to play/fade teams that have changed better or worse to start of the year, catch that value early .. if I see models and vegas agree on a game then even better since it prob means bookies are just not all that sure how to power rate them and just going off the model... def looking to play the opening numbers early on ... ideally want to make more use of models later on, look for teams vegas is deviating on because they've been playing real hot or cold .. maybe the mid-week or late number is better in that case esp fading a real popular team .. that's always been a tough transition for me when to start trusting models, usually have teams I like and hang on after vegas catches up .. always something to improve on in this game ..  

Good luck this year .. 

Excellent thread. The funny thing is that always people like you who are profitable in the long run because your “lack of knowledge “ is actually a blessing because you can look at games more objectively. Many people on here who “know” college football , myself included, can at times allow predisposed notions interfere with an objective opinion. Example many people who are laying uga week one say “Bo is always horrible vs Georgia they have his number” . Well that maybe true but how does it tie into this SPECIFIC game. Also I would add on top of forgetting your loses , it’s as important to forget your wins. All of my most vicious losing streaks have come on the heels of a fabulous win streak. 

Good intel boys. Thanks. 
What site do you trust for advanced stats and power ratings? I recall using Colin Wilson on action App as a solid baseline for power ratings.  

nm

This applies more to CBB and MLB but can help in CFB some weekends. I attempt to play odds more than teams. Odds in one way that I’m trying to find ML underdogs to win SU, and then in another by reversing the juice to the book. Underdogs win everyday in both of these sports. For example- I ran numbers on the first two months of the CBB season on spreads less than 10 and an underdogs won 9 times straight up  per day on average over the course of two months worth of games. Going a bit deeper, parlaying 4 at an average of less than +150 will pay about 40 to 1. This is actually an optimal betting strategy because streaks are apart of sports gambling and you do win 4 in a row during the season, often several times. Win one, your next forty are paid for. Fading the public is a theme I tend to associate with this. I do not think statistical research, injury reports, etc. are good use of time when evaluating lines to bet unless there is a very strong relationship to the football environment/culture of that team or program. Vegas does a lot of that work for you when they set the line. Paying heavy juice for a long term and/or volume bettor with max wager limits will kill anyone.