Has public betting changed?

I'm thinking historically the public TAILED hype... Now, I think maybe they FADE it..

Might be different win total vs. Individual game betting.

I'm thinking contrarian = "I'm so smart"

Any thoughts?

@jimrockford22

 I understand the question you are raising.  I have been a market reading capper for at least 20 years.  If you have ever studied contrarian investing, it is impossible for the public to win in the long run.  If it were possible, all sports betting would have shut down years ago if the public betting was sharp. Obviously, the public can win in the very short run or even a few high profile games.  But the best long term strategy is to always fade the public.  As you know, the difficult part is knowing which side the public is actually liking.  Every year, there is always one or two weekends when the public cleans up but invariably square-ness reasserts itself.   I don't think a bettor can win big by only fading the public but it is a great starting point to isolate which games to play every weekend

One thing I forgot to mention.  The more the public likes a game, the stronger the play.  Go back through any records you may have and verify.  I like to limit my public fades to games between roughly equivalent teams (P5 vs P5, G5 vs G5).  I like to avoid double digits lines but this is based on my own personal bias.  

Two game that is shaping up as good contrarian play on favorite for week 1.  Clemson -13 vs Duke - Normally, I would expect this game to be approximately 70% tickets on Clemson.  But instead, the ticket count is only 55% on Clemson.  At first glance, this tells me there is an unusual amount of action on underdog Duke.  Lean Clemson but I have much more to look at before game time.

Same exact situation exists on TCU

I rarely bet on favorites because favorites are generally where the the public money will end up.  But so far, not on these 2 games.

Its not the public changed!!! Interweb changed it!

Now online gambling... Im sure all u bettors cant believe what goes on at times.

Gambling is to even out bets...with the info out ther...go figure

the public bets favorites and overs...always has been that way, and they win 43% of the time, just enough to keep coming back for more, but they lose enough to continually give their bankroll away all season long. 

dogs and unders are typically money makers...its just the way it is...

unders are especially $MONEY$ in Regular Season Wins...if you add up all of the posted numbers for RSW, there arent enough games to get each team over their total, which is usually shaded half a win to the over (as pub likes betting overs)...so finding struggling teams or overhyped teams and betting under can make you money. 

@steponaduck

 Well said Duck.  It's just the way it is.  Has been for many years.

People bet on the teams that they like. Patsies, Vikes, Boys all dogs this week, get 2/3 of the bets, none cover...living in the past. Fade the espn, cbs, fox talking heads.

If that was true then you can bet against it every season, win 57% and make a profit.  

@tjohnsont35

 YES, YOU can certainly bet against the public and win 57% of the time...get the public numbers on any "too good to be true" line...you will come out ahead being on the side the books need to win, often...but like i said...the common joe public betting $20.00 per game likes the thrill of the action, and they like overs and faves. its just the way it goes. 

one week, two weeks, one year...whatever, but over the long haul it always shakes out the same. 

see, the books want you to win, otherwise its "rigged" and no fun. you would never go back if you know you are going to lose...so they want you to win some and keep coming back, because long haul, being on the public side results in losers. 

The real problem is actually knowing what side the public is on. And knowing which games the public will lose that day. Like the original poster said it’s a good starting point , but unless you are picking those games more than not it really isn’t a great strategy overall. Say it’s Saturday during NCAAF. There are loads of games that the public is on are you taking them all? Picking a few ? Just pick g the top one of the day? This is why Vegas will always win

Fading the public is not sustainable long term. 

However it is a great tool to have in the “tool belt” and sometimes a great starting point. 

Usually work backwards and if 70% of public is on a side - look why they would be on that side, and start to look deeper into the reasons. If you start finding holes in those reasons then it’s usually a good play to fade the public. 

I usually bet games i like within the 1st day or so the lines come out, been able to know where the public will go is important, it can help you get the best line which is what we all want when we like a game, if the line is -3 and your sure it will go up, grab at -3 or if you like other side you'll wait for it to go up, handicapping is knowing how the public bets, so you can get the best line, its important in my view, there will be times when you may be wrong, but i have done well doing that, just have to be right, but even then it don't mean you'll win, point is everyone should always try and get the best line for the game you like

gl 151