How is TXSA

A 12.5 fav over TX State?   I believe TXS wins SU.  Went to Waco and beat. Baylor.  Now they are a dog?  What am I missing?

@bandit1010

UTSA had 3 turnovers and critical penalty that flipped a field goal into a touchdown vs houston, they should bounce back at home vs state

@bandit1010

 Recency bias. That’s what happening with you. I agree Texas state is way better than advertised….but if they lose at Baylor then this line is -20. 

likely a competitive game 

just bet the over and call it good 

Ty

TX ST is supposed to be in a rebuilding year, but this new coach believes in an up-tempo style (that he used to great effect at incarnate Word), UTSA on the other hand returens a bunch of quality players from an exceptional team last year...but, despite all that Im going to have to go with those +12.5 points.

texas state +11.5 UTSA

We all know what was supposed to happen, based on where the teams were last year.  Baylor was home and they were supposed to easily handle Texas State.  Baylor finished last year ranked 37 in the Massey composite, while Texas State was way down at 117.  Texas State got a new coach, from FCS Incarnate Word.  Big joke, right?   Baylor was a 28 point favorite last week.  Not so fast my friend.

Texas State hired an excellent new coach from Incarnate Word in G. J. Kinne, and they immediately hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in almost the entire offensive line from Incarnate Word’s FCS semifinal-reaching roster. Starting at QB for Texas State is TJ Finley.  That’s right, the same TJ Finley who played at Auburn last year.  So what happened last week?  Simply put, Texas State’s offense did whatever they wanted all game long.  They chalked up 42 points, and netted 441 yards of offense despite losing 2 fumbles.  Finley finished 22/30 for 298 yards and 3 TDs.  There is no question that Texas State has a legit offense, and holding them under 30 points will be a real challenge for every team. 

So what about UTSA?  While they had no trouble moving the ball, once again their QB Harris was haunted with inconsistency, throwing 3 interceptions.  They had trouble when it counted, going 4 for 13 on third downs and also committed eight penalties for 64 yards.  So we have an uncertain offense in the Roadrunners up against a team whose offense proved itself against a highly rated Baylor team.  It’s surely a must win game for UTSA, but I don’t need to win…I just need to cover and with Finley showing the way, the backdoor cover will always be available late in the game with this generous 11.5 points.  Give me an NFL QB in Finley and 441 yards of offense against a good team and I’ll take the 11.5 points anyday.  Going with the road dogs…I mean Bobcats +11.5.

I hate taking teams off huge upsets but i kinda like Tx State here, GJ Kinne basically did what Prime did at Colorado on a smaller scale with the portal, think he is a great coach and will be at Power 4? school soon 

TX State won't have an entire offseason to prepare for a team that was not prepared for the aforementioned new staff (system). TJ Finely has bounced from LSU, Auburn, and now TX ST. There is a reason he's no longer a SEC quarterback and the spread reflects that.