I am HUGE (0-0 YTD) Week 1 picks and analysis

ARIZONA ST -25 kent state

Kent State is pretty bad.  No….Kent State is really bad.  Last year they only won one FBS game.  Of course that fact really doesn’t matter since they’re not going to win this game at Arizona State, so what we need to be concerned about is whether or not they’ll cover 25 points. 

The Golden Flashes defense was the worst in the MAC last year, yielding 467 yards and 37 points per game.  Their defensive line was their biggest weakness.  They couldn’t stop the run and they couldn’t generate a pass rush.  They cured that problem since all 3 starters from last year are no longer on the team.  The bad news is their replacements were JV last year.  The only time Kent State played a team as good as Arizona State last year, they lost by 53 points.  Their defense will be worse this season.  Arizona State’s Eno Benjamin was a stud last year running for over 1600 yards and 5.5 yards per carry. The Sun Devil O line returns four starters.  Eno will be laughing like a hyena when he sees the holes that get opened up against the worst D-line in the MAC.

Herm Edwards has his Sun Devil team all amped up.  They averaged 38 points per game in their 7 victories last season.  There aren’t many teams in the FBS as bad as Kent State…. but in the 2 games that the Sun Devils played last year against teams ranked 100 or lower, they won them by an average of 35 points.  They had a big offensive display in their home opener non-conference game against UTSA last season.  Expect the same on Thursday night against Kent State.

In the 5 games that Kent played last year against teams ranked 80^th or higher (Arizona State is ranked 47^th by the way) the Flashes averaged only averaged 14 points per game.  That’s a not very flashy offense.  So by my math, ASU needs to only score their average of 40 points to cover (against the weakest defense in the MAC).   They’ll most likely score 49 points.

Kent State has been practicing in 60 degree weather all week.  It’s going to be 107 during the day Thursday in Tempe and 85 degrees at kickoff.  The Golden Flashes are going to need some water to cool off their panting defense by the 3^rd quarter in front a frenzied partying opening night crowd.  The Sun Devil receivers will be WIDE open in the 2^nd half.    It’s likely the Golden Flashes will more than likely be getting a Golden Shower from the Sun Devils.  Lay the wood…I am taking Arizona State -25.

With you step...new qb in week 1...granted late August fest heat may wear Dow a Midwest opponent like mich st last season.  There are better plays on the board for big chalk like this...;)

OREGON STATE +14 ½ Oklahoma state

Mike Gundy is a man, but one thing he is not is defensive mastermind.  In this road opener they are giving up a lot of points for a team that finished 7-6 last year.  Add the fact that the Cowboys have a new redshirt freshman quarterback and a new Offensive Coordinator (from Princeton) and one has to wonder how they will get through the game without making any mistakes on offense, especially on the road.  You want to play a night game on the road against a howling hostile Corvallis crowd, you’d better be able to run the football to calm things down.  Oklahoma State doesn’t like to run the football.  They like the spread.  Now don’t get me wrong, Gleeson is going to be a great college football OC and his innovation could change college football permanently, but it ain’t gonna happen as soon as Friday night.

Turning to the other side of the ball, Cowboys ranked No. 97 in scoring defense and No. 112 in total defense - 453 yards and 33 points per game .  That’s not good…at all..and in the land of backdoor covers no one laying the points will be able to rest easily.  The even bigger concern is the defensive line, where six players —four starters and two rotating backups — are no longer Cowboys.  They tried to replace the spots at end with transfers from Colorado and Bowling Green but how they will fare on week 1 is anyone’s guess.  On top of that, their leading tackler at LB is gone. 

Now Oregon State isn’t a very good team but their offense isn’t terrible.  They averaged 400 yards per game last year and, most importantly, their two running backs are among the best in the PAC 12.  They are very physical ball carriers, the kind that make Big 12 defenses look like they are playing on roller skates.  Moving the chains and speeding up the game will make it more difficult for Oklahoma State to cover this point spread.   While their defense was terrible last year, they have 8 starters returning so it’s likely they will be improved. 

This game is a scripted backdoor cover.  The fact that the Beavers are home means that they will try to score meaningless touchdowns at the end while Oklahoma State is mugging for the cameras on the sidelines.   Laying 14 ½ is just too many against a physical rushing attack facing a touch football defense designed to stop the pass.   I’m taking the Beavers and the points!

Mississippi state -20 LOUISIANA

Let’s address the elephant in the room.  The Bulldogs will likely suspend 10 players for this game but just because WE don’t know who is playing, it doesn’t mean that Mississippi State doesn’t know.  They do know and everyone one of those Mississippi State players on the field will be better than his Rajun Cajun counterpart.  Moreover, the substitute Bulldog players will be playing their fools off, because it will be their time to shine in front of the coaches.  I expect even more of a sense of urgency and relentlessness from the favorites.

Last year, the Bulldog running game finished second in the SEC behind a mammoth O line.  We’ll see more of the same this year from the big boys.  Behind center is Penn State transfer Tommy Stevens who played before for Coach Joe Moorhead.  From camp reports their passing game is way ahead of where they were last year.  Speaking of last year, the Bulldogs beat the Cajuns by the score of 56-10.  They posted 600 yards of offense including 331 yards on the ground, averaging 7 yards per tote.  Kylin Hill will be able to run at will against a very unproven Louisiana state run stopping box that will likely be playing 3 yards off the ball before they even know where it is.   Why do I say this?  Last year, Louisiana was 112^th in the country against the run.  When you look at these stats from last year, you have to realize that the Cajuns play in the crap Sun Belt conference and 7 of the teams they played were ranked below #100, so the facts that their stats were still so shitty does not bode well for them in an SEC matchup.

On the other side of the ball, the Cajuns ran into a brick wall last year against the Bulldogs with only 65 yards and 2.5 yards per carry…a total mismatch.    That’s no surprise.  Miss State’s signature is that they are crazy good against the run, last year finishing second in the nation behind Michigan State, allowing just 95 yards per game.   Don’t count on the pass for the Cajuns as their primary QB from last year, Nunez, has finished his stint with the program.  Yup…a new QB against a hungry D.

The Bulldogs are projected to be better than they were last year and in the four games when they played teams ranked #60 or lower, they won those games by an average of 41.5 points per game.  When Louisiana Lafayette played its 2 games against teams in the top 20, they lost by an average of 44 points.  The math just does not add up for the Cajuns to cover this spread.

Playing in the New Orleans Superdome isn’t going to help.  It’s likely that the Bulldog faithful will outnumber the “home” team in that big stadium.  Yup…more cowbell.  I’m laying the wood and watching the Bulldogs cover the 20 points here.

anyone else thinking on the UTEP vs Houston Baptist game?  Looks like candy from babies.

Kent State defense definitely better than they were last year.

Both teams' defenses played much better than I expected.  If someone had told me that Kent State was only going to score 7 points I would have really amped up my bet.  I am very surprised ASU did not score more than 40.  Kent State defense was much more physical than expected and hustled to the point of attack and I thought ASU would do much better than 3.7 yards per carry.   Kudos to Steponaduck.

I am by no means a great better, but I live in Oklahoma and the cowboys are what I know. I agree with some of what you said:

QB: Dru Brown the two year starter from hawaii will likely be the starter. He is less talent than Sanders our highly recruited QB but both will play. Brown is more consistent.

Offense: With that said, our best player (besides WR Wallace) is Chubba Hubbard the RB, look for him to explode on the scene this year. Yes we have a new OC. Gundy really likes to pound the ball in these season opening road games, especially with Chubba being so good. 

Defense: should be the best secondary we’ve had in a while. Yes, are front line may be the weakest. I do think we will be much better, given it’s Knowles second year to implement his strategy (came from Duke). I like Oregon state to try and exploit the run game. 

With that said, I can’t get a handle on Oregon state, it seems most of their offense game in back door covers last year. So no I don’t live he 14 points. But I really love the Under. We have a tendency to play down to talent, see last year. Went 7-6 but 4-1 against top 25 teams and missed 2 pt conversion to beat OU. 

MY PLAY IS THE UNDER AT 71.5 and especially the first half under while we figure out our QB situation. This should be a small play, bc like we know.... sometimes we show up and drop 50. But both teams will try and run the ball IMO. I’d stay away from the line at 14

Poke...excellent analysis.  I watched the Beavers a couple of times last year and my biggest bet of 2018 was when I was in Vegas and had ASU laying 21.5 to Oregon State.  I sweated through the whole game watching the Beavers run on ASU like they weren't even there.  If you think OK State is going to run the ball then the Under is a great play as it will shorten the game significantly.  Best of luck.  By the way, I live in Princeton so we know quite a bit about your OC.  He's terrific.

The Oregon St game pretty much went as expected other than the fact that the Beavers abandoned the run early.  Obviously going for 2 twice killed me.  Don't chase the points!  LOL

MARYLAND -29.5 howard

Ordinarily I look away from these body bag games but this one is intriguing for a few reasons.  First of all Maryland is an average-ish Big 10 team.  Last year they were able to vanquish 3 Big 10 opponents (Minnesota, Rutgers and Illinois) by an average of 29 points.  I’ll throw in a victory of 31 points over Bowling Green.   So Maryland showed a lot of offensive firepower…they still have it.  You have to multiply that by the fact that Howard’s defense was soft in the FCS – giving up 34 points per game last year.  They won’t be playing Florida A&M or Delaware State today.  There is virtually no scenario here where Maryland scores less than 50 points in this game.

Howard has some flashy skill players on offense, including Cam Newton’s brother at QB.    However going against a Big 10 front 7 will likely mitigate any timing and speed that they have.  Howard is a below average FCS team and the best team they played last year was Kent State, losing by 40 points.  Maryland is probably 3 touchdowns better than Kent State.

So that’s the how to…the want to is the secret sauce in this game.  Maryland is looking to shake off ugly incidents in recent memory with a new coaching staff and a new attitude.   They won’t be sleeping for this game.  The weather is perfect.   Playing a cross town rival will keep these players excited and will motivate the Terp defense to keep their little brothers out of the end zone.  Seeing the line fall below 30 is a gift.  Laying the wood on the team with the funny helmets.   

Best of luck today huge.

Love the analysis!

UTSA – 6.5 incarnate word

No offense to any Cardinal alums, but I really don’t know a lot about Incarnate Word, other than the fact that when they stepped up in class to play an FBS team over the last two years, they went 0-3 losing by an average of 47 points to North Texas, New Mexico and Fresno State.  Now UTSA isn’t a very good FBS team but they did win 3 FBS games last year and in two of those wins they covered this spread against teams that are better than Incarnate Word.  The UTSA offense was deplorable last year (worst in FBS) but they have 9 starters coming back….they will be better.

The Riverwalk and Alamadome will be rocking tonight.  These are two San Antonio schools and certainly Incarnate Word will play hard in front of their friends and family to prove that they belong.  But I don’t see a scenario where they should win this game, and given the weakness in their defense, the 6.5 points will not be a big mountain for the Roadrunners to climb.  UTSA does not want the best area high school players to even think about going to their cross town rival.  Their pride is certainly at stake but the real difference in ability in the front 7 is what will make this a comfortable victory for UTSA.

I like your write ups!You are a good capper