I AM HUGE (10-8 YTD 56%) WEEK 5 PICKS AND ANALYSIS

Here are my picks for this week, with analysis to follow...which ones do you like?

I'm going for the home favorites this week:

MICHIGAN -9 minnesota

TULANE -6 south florida

UTAH -12 arizona

@Arbatillo

 Did you play Division 1 college football like I did????

id tease 2 of them

@iamhuge

  Good luck

Michigan plays similar to Iowa, if they don't have a letdown after the big win over USC they should push them around too.

More concerned about your Tulane play over USF who has played well in intervals against Bama and Miami two of the best teams in the country. I like Tulane QB Mensah but he's young and USF has already faced two Heisman candidates. This is the type of game USF can win outright and getting points looks good for the visitors.

Might be a good week to fade Buffalo, I warned you about that game last week. After the upset over NIU OTR now another road game against a scrappy UCONN team should play right into the Huskies hands. GL in your plays!

Best of luck

MICHIGAN -9 minnesota

It’s so funny, since January I’d seen more people wearing Michigan caps than you can shake a stick at.  Then in week two, they got demolished by Texas and we didn’t see any more Michigan caps on people’s heads.  That’s really too bad, because when Michigan played Texas, the game really wasn’t as bad as the final score indicated.  Michigan actually played fairly well defensively and their offense held up its own in that game.  It was the 3 turnovers that killed them.  If they had played a clean game, it would have easily been a one score contest.  In their opening contest, Michigan beat a Fresno State team by 20 points and Fresno and Minnesota are comparatively ranked.  Against USC, Michigan was able to run the ball for 290 yards and 6.3 yards per carry.  It’s true they beat Arkansas state by 10 points but once again the 3 turnovers prevented them from winning this game by 3 touchdowns.  At the end of the day, Michigan’s defense has been very good all season, holding opponents to 20 points per game in their 3 victories.

This is important because PJ Flecks, row the boat offense has some oarlocks missing.  Minnesota is only 2-2 and they have played the 100 worst schedule in football.   The Go Go Gophers are more like the stop stop Gophers on offense, averaging only 20 points per game in their 3 FBS contests.  While they looked very good against a questionable Nevada team, they scored only 17 points in a loss to North Carolina, who gave up 70 points to James Madison last week.  Then last week, Minnesota got run over by Iowa, to the tune of 272 yards rushing on 6.0 yards per carry.    Iowa had no threat to pass and still dominated on the ground.   Minnesota lost to Iowa by 17 points.  Michigan is better on offense and on defense than Iowa is.  Michigan has NFL players on defense.  If Michigan can run the ball on Minnesota the way that they ran on USC, this game won’t be close. Minnesota can’t stop the run. Michigan will keep it on the ground and bully ball Minnesota keeping the jug in Ann Arbor.   

If Minnesota could only score 17 against North Carolina, that’s a red flag.  Last year Michigan won this game 52-10.   This one has the look of a 27-10 result.  There aren’t many scenarios where you see the Gophers getting a sniff of the end zone.   The USC game really rejuvenated the Wolverines and being at home for this one will shake off any victory hangover.    Minnesota is 0-5 ATS against Big 10 teams in their last 5 games.  Happy to lay the 9 points for Michigan at home.

@mrusso

 Agreed on your USF analysis...

Michigan wins and covers 

GL 

TULANE -6 south florida

Keeping it simple here. Tulane is the better team.  They are home and they have the better quarterback.  So far this season, South Florida really has not had a stellar resume.  Let’s ignore their week opener body bag game against Bethune Cookman.  The next week the Bulls went to Alabama and, as expected, they lost 42-16.  Then they went to Southern Miss and their offense looked impressive in a 49-24 victory.  So everyone got on the Bulls train, until the following week when South Florida hosted Miami and got destroyed 50-15.   To make things worse, their one impressive victory over Southern Miss was severely tarnished when Southern Miss lost to Jacksonville State by the score of 44-7.  So clearly, South Florida has a defense problem.  In their 3 FBS games, they have given up 36.7 points per game.  That’s not good…especially since Tulane’s QB Mensah is very very good.

 Now Tulane is not as good as Alabama or Miami, but they are way better than Southern Siss.  Tulane plays much much better at home and they basically gave away the game against Kansas State.  They were also going toe to toe in their game at Oklahoma but got screwed by some really bad calls. Regardless, their offense is averaging 29 points per game against FBS competition.  It’s a given they will put up at least 35 on South Florida.  Mensah is completing 60% of his passes and their RB Hughes is just tearing it up, averaging over 100 yards per game with a 5.5 yards per carry average. 

At the end of the day, when each team played against tough opponents, one of them stood tall and the other one got a nice golden shower.  I’m going with the home team and the better QB to score a lot of points and make the spread meaningless.  On the Green Wave.

Let’s go meeeeeshigan!   The fact that VT moved the ball so easily against Miami but that USF could not adds some sauce to my position on Tulane.  Tulane has a decent defense 

Tulane is making USF their girlfriends right now...Mensah is 10/10 passing while USF has zero yards rushing on 6 attempts.  

Great stuff! Thanks for the detailed write up 

Meeeeshigan gakking 

Great call on Tulane, surprised USF just laid down today. How bout UCONN rolling Buffalo too after Buffalo upset NIU. Suddenly Michigan in a fight, good luck with that!

Tulane covers easily. 1-0 on the week 

Remarkable 21 point fourth quarter by Minnesota capped off by a late drive for a TD notches the back door cover.  Michigan offense unimpressive.   1-1 on the week. 

UTAH -12 arizona

It was the Utes it was the Utes!  The undefeated 10 ranked Utah Utes have rolled into the Big 12 with a lot of swagger and a remarkable defense.  Now they square up again with former Pac 12 Rival Assizona.  There are no mysteries here.  Utah plays physical football and they just love to play smashmouth defense, giving up only 17 points per contest.  For example, the Baylor Mike Bears are averaging 34 points per game against all other opponents.  Against Utah, they scored 12 points (hint Baylor is ranked higher than Assizona).  Same story with the T Boone Pickens Oklahoma State Cowboys….averaging 37 points per game against their other opponents, but when they squared up against the mighty Utes, they scored 19 points.  Utah forced the Cowboys into 8 consecutive 3 and outs.   Ollie Gordon couldn’t run against Utah.  Oklahoma State is ranked #15 while Assizona is ranked 57.  Get the picture?

The 2-1 Wildcats thought they were all big and bad by slamming hapless New Mexico and FCS Northern Arizona (who they only scored 22 points on).  When they faced Kansas State (who does not have as good a defense as Utah does), Arizona lost 31-7.  There is no way Arizona scores more than one touchdown against Utah.  Just no way.  Utah’s opponents have rushed for only 3.1 yards per carry.  Arizona won’t be able to run against them.  You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road?  You lose…that’s what happens.  The Utes' defense allows 13.0 points (22nd) and 260.8 total yards (19th) per game, including 167.0 passing yards (34th) and 93.8 rushing yards (23rd). They have accumulated 12.0 sacks (11th) and 27.0 tackles for loss (27th).  Oh yeah…it’s going to be a crazy night game in Salt Lake City.  Rice-Eccles at night has not been good at all for the visitors.

There has been some concern at QB this season for Utah since Cam Rising continues to be on the injury watch, but Zach Wilson’s little brother Isaac is doing much better for the Utes than poor old Zach did for the J-E-T-S.    His stats aren’t great, but the kid is winning.  It doesn’t really matter, because Michah Bernard is going to run all over the Wildcats whose rushing defense is ranked #96 in the country to the tune of 4.7 yards per carry – not good at all (remember they played against two ass teams so far).  Bernard leads the Big 12 in rushing and Arizona has an undersized line.  Utah plays football in a phone booth and they will smash you and control the clock until you cry like a little biatch.  Dream on Arizona, Utah has only three home losses since 2018.  Gimmeee old school at night….they will be partying in SLC tonight.  Utes laying the wood.

Any idea why the line has dropped significantly?

likely speculation on Rising’s status. 

Utah no shows.  Can’t score in the red zone.  Loser week.  1-2 on the week.  11-10 YTD ATS 52%.  If I lose next week, I’m done. 

Shocking.....