I AM HUGE (15 - 13 YTD 54%) WEEK 7 PICKS AND ANALYSIS

Here are my picks for this week...analysis to follow:

Clemson -20.5 WAKE FOREST

KENTUCKY -13 vanderbilt

Clemson -20.5 WAKE FOREST

I watched with great intent last week the game of Clemson at Florida State.  Clemson did everything they could to not cover the spread and they ended up winning by 16 points.  I watched most of the game and Clemson should have easily won by 30 points because they were just terrible in the red zone that day.  Florida State is at least a touchdown better than Wake Forest.   When they interviewed Dabo I could tell he was really pissed at how sloppy Clemson played and I know for sure that this week he will be a taskmaster to clean things up.  Most impressive was how easily and effectively Clemson could run the ball whenever they wanted to.  Mafah is averaging 7.3 yards per carry and he is an absolute bull when it comes to breaking tackles and falling forward. 

If you set aside the Georgia game (not relevant here because Wake Forest is nowhere near as good as Georgia) you’ll see that the Clemson offense is doing very well, averaging over 48 points per game in their other 4 contests. Cade Klubnik has thrown for 1,219 yards, 14 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 64.3% passing while also rushing for 168 yards and 4 touchdowns.     The Demon Deacons, on the other hand, were not so Demonlike this season.  They are 1 – 3 against FBS teams and their defense is terrible,  ranked 115 in the country because they are giving up 35.5 points per game.  They are allowing 72% pass completions in their soft zone coverages that has led to giving up a ridiculous 460 yards per game.  Meanwhile Clemson is averaging 7 yards per play (ranked #11 in the country)!    The Clemson punter is clearly going to have the day off.   

Like I said, Clemson has covered this spread in 3 of their 4 victories, and they easily should have covered it against FSU.  They beat NC State by 24 who played Wake Forest mostly even (should have won).  The Tigers beat Stanford by 26 and Stanford is ranked about the same as Wake.  Wake Forest is going to get manhandled up front and they will have trouble protecting their QB.  That leads to turnovers.  I see Clemson setting themselves apart as the leader in the ACC starting with this game.   Laying the points with the Tigers. 

@iamhuge

 Huge......BOL with all your week 7 action buddy......

here's to a solid weekend......indy

where the hell was JMU last week?  Just sayin

KENTUCKY -13 vanderbilt

There is a long long long list of teams whose goalposts ended up in the river, only to see the team fall flat on its face the following week.  In 1982, Penn beat Harvard on a second chance field goal at Franklin Field after a roughing the kicker penalty.  The goalposts ended up in the Schuylkill River as the team celebrated their share of the Ivy League title that night (and the next night and the next night etc).  The following week, Penn lost to an inferior Cornell team by the score of 23-0. 

This is the most terrible situation for Vandy.  They are a good team, but they are going into a snake pit.  This is a scary good Kentucky team that is extremely physical.  If you throw out the outlier, the weird loss to South Carolina, their body of work has been incredibly impressive.  In those for other games, the Wildcat defense has let up only 9 points and is ranked fifth in the country – for good reason.  They beat a very good Mississippi team on the road and nearly beat Georgia, a game where they outplayed the Dawgs.  If you compare apples to apples, the closest team they played in caliber to Vandy, the Ohio Bobcats, Kentucky beat them 41-6.

Vandy has been good…and their win over Alabama is certified legendary, but the rest of their season has been unimpressive.  Losing to a fraudulent Missouri team and also inexplicably losing to a 2-2 Georgia State team?  I don’t think you can put Vandy up there with the SEC elite.

The Wildcat defense shutdown two of the best QB’s in the country Carson Beck and Jaxson Dart – sorry Diego Pavia – your NFL draft stock is going down after you see the Wildcat D.  The Kentucky pass rush is going to really make things difficult for Vandy throwing the ball on the road.  The Vandy defense is beat up and Kentucky had the week off…expect them to move the chains on offense under the lights in front of an excited Kroger crowd. Vanderbilt is allowing 32 points per game and 6.36 yards per play against FBS competition.  They are ranked 112th in opponent third down conversion rate.  The bye week has added two of Kentucky’s best players back into the lineup.  Wide receiver Hardley Gilmore and offensive tackle Courtland Ford, who have yet to play this season, were listed as probable.

Once Vandy punts the ball a few times and they fall behind in the first half, the air will come out of their balloon.  The Wildcat defense is just too good to allow for a backdoor cover and the Vandy defense is just not good enough to trade scores with Kentucky at night in a key SEC game for the Wildcats who are serious contenders for a national top 12 spot.    Statement game for the home favorites. 

Clemson gonna keep scoring….

Clemson is candy from babies 

Clemson easily covers.  Perfectly handicapped.   1-0 on the week. Let’s go Kentucky!

97 yd drive by vandy.  Uh oh 

Vandy is outplaying Kentucky.  No doubt about it 

It's official...Kentucky is a shit show

Vandy topples Kentucky on the road....underestimated Vandy....overestimated Kentucky.  1-1 on the week.  16-14 YTD ATS 53%...see you next week.