In Birmingham they love the Gov'nor, boo hoo ooo. Now we all did what we could do. I am happy to say I got this line at -1 sorry for the rest of you. Boo hoo hoo. This is a big value play because based on their body of work so far, UAB is the superior team to the Hilltoppers.
Now I’m not saying that UAB is really any good. They’ve beaten 3 sorry teams so far, but when they square up with WKU, they’ll be seeing their 4 sorry team. But love means never having to say you’re sorry, and when you’re at the Aria pay window, there will not be any boo hoo hooing. Most football nerds have WKU ranked about the same as South Alabama. Sweet home Alabama. UAB put the smackdown on the boys from Mobile by the score of 35-3 last week. The rest of the story ain’t so bad either as UAB is averaging 30 points per game this season.
Turning to the Hilltoppers, it’s not quite as pretty. They are 1-2 on the year, with a loss to FCS Central Arkansas and their only win against equally lame FIU (winless against FBS competition). That win was not impressive because FIU’s star QB sprained his ankle in the 2 quarter and FIU was no threat on offense thereafter. WKU has not done well running the ball as they are only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. The reason this is important is that their starting QB Steve Duncan, the only player to take a snap this year, injured his foot last week and is out indefinitely. For some reason, the WKU Coach Helton decided to have an open competition during the bye week, instead of naming the starter. These competitions always create dissentions among the team, and the kids usually align with their classmates. The starter will most likely by grad transfer Ty Storey, who probably pouted when he didn’t get the starting job to open the season and its doubtful he’s in sync with the playbook or the offense. If he doesn’t find early success against the UAB defense (which has only allowed 14 points per game) it could get ugly on the sideline.
There’s not much wood to lay here, so I’m going with the better team. I’m on the Blazers -1 for 4 units.
smu -7 SOUTH FLORIDA
Ron Meyer is best known in football lore for calling the play where the snowplow was driven on the field to clear the way for the winning field goal when the Patriots beat Don Shula and the Dolphins. Don Shula was all mad. He was so mad he opened a chain of steakhouses and serves snowplow specials. What is sometimes forgotten is that Ron Meyer was at the helm of SMU in 1980 when they had success with their Pony Express stable of running backs. Now when teams run the ball, the loser fans say that football is boring. Anyway, after Ron Meyer left, SMU was basically ass. But this year they are 4-0 and kicking ass!
Averaging 44 points per game, the Mustangs already have covered this 7 point spread against the likes of @Arkansas State (37-30), North Texas (49-27) and Texas State (47-17). Both Arkansas State and North Texas are ranked higher than South Florida. South Florida is *maybe* 10 points better than Texas State, but surely not 20 points better. SMU’s QB Shane Buechele is getting it done, completing 67% of his passes and leading the team to over 500 yards of offense per game.
South Florida has done nothing all year. They are 1 – 2 on the season with their only win against a very average FCS South Carolina State. They are really struggling on offense. They run the ball more than pass it but only average 3.6 yards per carry. And it shows. Against FBS competition, they are only averaging 5 points per game. I think their most revealing game was their 14-10 loss to a horrific Georgia Tech team where the Bulls only notched 11 first downs. This year the Rambling Wreck is just a wreck (they lost to FCS Citadel). The fact that South Florida lost to Georgia Tech is inexplicable. While I won’t harp on the fact that they lost to Wisconsin (49-0), did I mention that they lost to Wisconsin 49-0? Now SMU ain’t no Wisconsin, but the Mustangs went to TCU and beat them. If you win games on the road against good teams (TCU) you can cover a touchdown on the road to weak teams (South Florida). I am confidently laying 7 points on the Ponies for 6 units.
WISCONSIN -23.5 northwestern
What happens when you stand in front of a moving train to take a selfie? Most likely the train won’t stop. Why would I bet against a team that is scoring 49 points per game and only giving up 5 points per game? Why would I bet against a team that is averaging 264 yards per game on the ground and 5.5 yards per carry? Although I love the Wildcats as a dog, and I love their coach even more, they just don’t seem to have the offensive punch this year to keep themselves in a game like this. Northwestern only scored 7 points against Stanford and 10 against Sparty. The 30 points that the Wildcats scored at home against an anemic UNLV defense wasn’t impressive, considering that Arkansas State put up 43 points against UNLV on the road.
You can talk hangover all you want after the huge win over Michigan but the Badgers are not going to let a Big 10 game pass them by. You can’t love a road dog if they can’t score. Northwestern lost their starting QB in week 1 for the season and their best receiver is questionable for Saturday. So they won’t be able to throw. Wisconsin’s rushing defense only allows 27 yards rushing per game, so Northwestern won’t be able to run the ball. You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose. Northwestern couldn’t run the ball against Sparty, and they lost by 21. Sparty doesn’t have Wisconsin’s offense.
I think if Northwestern scores 14 points against Wisconsin, that’s being very generous under these circumstances. Can Wisconsin score 38 points against Northwestern to cover? They scored 35 against Michigan’s great defense. They scored 61 against a Central Michigan defensive unit that held Miami-FL to 17 points. One of their season’s missions is to get the Heisman for Jonathan Taylor. They do that by breaking the defense, getting a big lead and giving the Taylor the rock so he can bust long runs. That adds up to a big Badger victory. Laying the wood -23.5 for 7 units.
MICHIGAN STATE -14 indiana
That is Spartan law. And by Spartan law, we will stand and fight... and die. A new age has begun: an age of freedom! And all will know that 300 Spartans gave their last breath to defend it! It may not be that dramatic, but trying to run against Michigan State is like trying to penetrate the Spartan phalanx. After that home loss to Arizona State, Michigan State has no intention of embarrassing themselves at home again, especially against an inferior opponent like the Hoosiers. Indiana is 3-1, but more on this fraudulence later.
Indiana had the pleasure of being slaughtered by Ohio State, scoring 10 points in the process. In their other 3 games that they played, they are averaging 41 points, making you believe that their offense is actually decent. That’s not the case. Before you get excited about the 34 points they scored on Ball State, you have to know that FCS Fordham scored 29 on Ball State and the Florida Atlantic Kiffins scored 41. Their other win was against Eastern Illinois, an 0-4 FCS team that is averaging 5 points per game. Finally, their crowning achievement is a 38-3 victory over UCONN. That’s like Kamala the Ugandan Giant going off the top rope on that man Krueger, except that Indiana is not Kamala the Ugandan Giant. They are more like Kamala Harris.
Despite this powder puff schedule, Indiana has only been able to run the ball for 121 yards per game, and 3.5 yards per carry. First of all, no one can run against Michigan State, who has only given up 52 yards per game and 1.7 yards per carry and are only giving up a total of 11 points per game. You know what happens when you go on the road and can’t run the ball? You lose. Indiana will try to throw the ball, but they won’t be balanced which will lead to sacks or interceptions thrown. Western Michigan has a strong passing attack and they only scored 17 on Sparty (while scoring 33 on Syracuse and 52 on Georgia State). Oh by the way, Indiana’s starting QB, Penix, has a bad shoulder and missed last game. His status is questionable. Also, Indiana’s best lineman, left tackle Coy Cronk wrecked his ankle last week and is out for the season. Better check the backup QB’s pants for stains when he faces the Spartan defense, and I’m not talking about grass stains either. I think it will be difficult for Indiana to score double digits, but we’ll generously say they get 10 points.
Sparty’s offense has not been bad at all. They are averaging 400 yards per game and have already played and beaten a couple of good teams. Their quarterback has only thrown one interception with 7 touchdowns. Throw out the ASU game and the Spartans are averaging 37 points per game. I’m only looking for them to score 28 against a soft defense and I get my cover. I’m thinking even the defense will score on Saturday. Laying the 14 points on Michigan State for 5 units.
La li La La She was bred in old Kentucky but she is just a crumb up here. You’d have to be a Stooge not to know that Kentucky has beaten South Carolina for 5 years in a row. What’s even more comical, nyuk nyuk nyuk, is that Kentucky is better this year than in any of those 5 previous years and South Carolina is worse. So when I saw that Kentucky was an underdog in this game it was like Larry was playing Pop Goes the Weasel on the fiddle.
South Carolina has lost three of their first four games of the season. The last two games were one sided losses exceeding 20 points. They lost their starting QB early in the season and he was replaced by a freshman, Ryan Hilinski who has a bad elbow but will play. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want a freshman with a bad elbow throwing passes to my receivers. The Gamecocks are a walking hospital ward with the following injuries announced just this week:
9/24/19 QB Ryan Hilinski Elbow is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Kentucky
09/22/19 RB A.J. Turner Thumb is "?" Saturday vs Kentucky
09/22/19 DL Aaron Sterling Knee is "?" Saturday vs Kentucky
09/22/19 OL Eric Douglas Undisclosed is "?" Saturday vs Kentucky
09/22/19 OL Hank Manos Ankle is OUT Saturday vs Kentucky
09/22/19 DB J.T. Ibe Pectoral is "?" Saturday vs Kentucky
09/22/19 DB Jaylin Dickerson Undisclosed is "?" Saturday vs Kentucky
09/22/19 WR Shi Smith Side is "?" Saturday vs Kentucky
09/22/19 RB Kevin Harris Undisclosed is out for season
Kentucky +3 SOUTH CAROLINA
Despite this, Coach Muschamp is doing his best George “The Liar” O’Leary imitation: Muschamp said the team is for the most part healthy heading into the Kentucky game. He did speak on Ryan Hilinski, who battled some elbow soreness in a loss to Missouri. Muschamp said he is “absolutely” going to be ready for Saturday. “He made every throw today,” Muschamp said. “He looked great and there’s been absolutely no cut of reps or anything. He looks great.” Yeaaaaah Riiiiiiight.
Kentucky’s QB is banged up also, but doesn’t look to be as bad. On his Monday call-in show, Mark Stoops had a more encouraging update on Sawyer Smith for the week ahead. “Sawyer is feeling much better today than he was yesterday,” Stoops said. “That’s good. Hopefully, he keeps progressing and gets back to 100% by this weekend.” Time for a visit from Dr. Feelbetter.
Enough of the drama. Kentucky put up 38 points in each of its wins over Toledo and Eastern Michigan. MAC teams yes, but no cupcakes. Then they hit the iron in their schedule, dropping a game to Florida that they really should have won. Now EVERYONE loves Florida. They had their worst game of the year by far at Mississippi State, who really needed that win after bombing at home against Kansas State. No matter…it’s time for Kentucky to bounce back.
South Carolina hasn’t won an FBS game this year. Their only victory was over an 0-4 FCS team, Charleston Southern and then got beat up by Alabama and Missouri. Frankly if you pit Kentucky’s 3 best games against South Carolina’s 3 best games, it looks like Kentucky is 2 touchdowns better than the Gamecocks. Give them 4 points for home field, but that doesn’t get South Carolina a victory. They need to win this game to cover and I think Kentucky wins this one outright on the road. Taking the 3 points and the ‘Cats in an “upset” for 6 units.
SOUTHERN MISS -25 utep
Usually in the morning I turn on the teewee and watch CNBC to see how I can make more money in the oil markets. There is so much oil in the Permian Basin. Oh the oil. El Paso sits right next to the Permian and the UTEP Miners play something that only vaguely resembles football in El Paso. People in the oil business have made so much money in the Permian. This makes sense, because I have made so much money betting against UTEP. This week UTEP gets to travel to Southern Siss so that they can not only lose again, but most likely get sissed on. Southern Miss has won the last four games in the series, including a 39-7 victory last season in El Paso. Over the four-game win streak, the Golden Eagles have averaged 34.0 points to the Miners’ 6.8 during that stretch. Southern Miss features an exciting wide receiver in Quez Watkins, who was named C-USA Offensive Player of the Week on Sept. 16 after catching seven passes for 209 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns in their 47-42 victory over Troy. Southern Miss averages 303.8 passing yards per game on their young season, ranking them first amongst Conference-USA teams, and redshirt junior quarterback Jack Abraham has thrown for 1,164 yards this season. UTEP uses 2 quarterbacks. One is bad, the other is worse. The bad one injured his shoulder last week against Nevada and has been wearing an ice pack all week. This isn’t going to help their passing game.
You’ve heard of the Power 5? UTEP is the member of the loser 5 (which also includes UMASS, New Mexico State, Soylent Green and Akron). These teams battle each week to try to prove who is the most ass. UTEP lost their 2 games against FBS opponents. Texas Tech beat them 38-3 and they came home and Nevada beat them by 16. They barely won against Houston Baptist.
Southern Miss played 2 tough opponents (Alabama and Mississippi State). You can’t use these results at all when you handicap this game against UTEP. Southern Miss is better than Nevada. Southern Miss beat Alcorn State by 28, and Alcorn State is better than UTEP. I think their road victory over Troy was very impressive, given that they were able to score 47 points and passed for over 500 yards against a team that has only given up an average of 10 points in their other 2 games. The Golden Eagles are averaging 42 points per game against non SEC teams. UTEP is giving up 36 points per game. It won’t be much of a challenge for Southern Miss to crack 50 points.
Southern Miss likes to play fast and their QB is completing 70% of his passes. UTEP’s non existent pass rush will make this easy pickings and if Miners can’t get any first downs, this game can get really one sided early. Last year Southern Miss won in El Paso by the score of 39-7. The Golden Eagles are better this year, and UTEP is worse. Southern Miss doesn’t bother running the ball and since they are home, they won’t have to. When UTEP played Texas Tech and their Air Raid, it was ugly. Expect more of the same on Saturday. I like the Golden Eagles giving a good old Golden Shower as Southern Siss covers the spread for 7 units.
NWestern is gonna get rolled. Bol
excellent write up, right with you. HAMMERING Wisconsin and SMU.
WYOMING -9.5 unlv
I am just a cowboy, lonely on the trail. The Wyoming Cowboys have an identity crisis. They have no idea who they are, having started the season at 3-1 including an incredibly impressive scalp of Missouri in week zero. Similarly the UNLV Rebs had a very exciting 56-23 victory in week zero over Southern Utah. The problem is that Southern Utah isn’t quite the same scalp as Missouri. In fact, they are a lot more like UMASS. So if we throw out each team’s best games in week zero, you’re left with a body of work that is not incredibly impressive on both sides, but nevertheless significantly more compelling on the Wyoming side.
UNLV’s supposed high flying offense was grounded down to 17 points against Arkansas State, a team that has given up 40 points per game in its other contests. Not very impressive. Arkansas St isn’t as good as Wyoming and they beat UNLV by 26. UNLV was also smoked by a below average Northwestern team which makes you think that when UNLV sees anything that looks like a front 7, they tend to turn tail. Northwestern and Wyoming are very comparable and they beat UNLV by 16. To make matters worse, 2 of UNLV’s running backs are questionable for Saturday. You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose. More importantly, can you cover?
After the incredible victory over Mizzou, Wyoming went on the road and beat Texas St, a team very comparable to UNLV, by 9 points and their defense is only giving up an average of 18 points in its last 3 games. UNLV’s defense is not quite as stout, surrendering 36 points per game in its last two outings. So you have the Cowboys at home playing defense while the road Rebels leave their defense at home. Easy cover. Laying the 9.5 wood on the home cooking for 6 units.
Kansas st +5 OKLAHOMA STATE
I like it when Kellynvegas is happy. I know Kelly will be happy when Kansas State beats Oklahoma State. If anyone hasn’t noticed yet, Kansas State now has one of the best coaches in FBS. They are playing a style of defense that the Big 12 hasn’t seen in years and the attitude of their defense reflects the no relentless tenacity of their coach. In 3 games, the Wildcats have defense have held their opponents to 13 points per game. They just don’t do that in the Big 12. Kansas State’s signature victory was two weeks ago when they went to Starkville and made the cowbells all quiet.
Okie State dropped an emotional game at Texas last week. Even though they lost by 6, Texas was in control of the game the whole time. The Cowboys have one of the best offensive coordinators in football and Saturday’s game is going to be the story of the irresistible force vs. the immovable object. However, the old adage that defense wins championships still holds true, even in the joke league they call the Big 12.
Kansas State is averaging 44 points per game and if they can put up 31 points against the run tough defense of Mississippi State, they certainly can get 35 points against the Cowboys. But can Okie State score 41 points against a K State team that hasn’t allowed more than 24 points this season? Beating Tulsa by 19 and Oregon State by 16 in high scoring affairs isn’t the same thing as covering 5 points against the Wildcat defense in a low scoring game.
This week is the coming out party for K State…and it’s always good to be getting points when you’re good enough to win the game outright. I’m on the Wildcats +5 for 9 units. Tell Kelly you heard it here first.
Maybe you should relax a little. I'm 60 years old. 15 of my friends are coming out to Vegas with me this weekend. We have all agreed to not share our picks until Friday so that we can work on our ideas independently. Most of them read this forum. So are we still full of ourselves? Please tell us.
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