Iowa -1.5 this Friday.

Iowa -1.5

One of the most over rated teams in the country, Iowa, going up against one of the most under rated teams Nebraska and I’m picking Iowa???

Sure Am. Martinez the Nebraska QB is out. He has thrown for 2800 yards and is a good scrambler and the teams leading rusher He is being replaced by a guy that has thrown 11 passes for the year. You tell me how Nebraska is going to move the ball against a very stout Iowa defense.

Iowa has pretty disappointing offense, they are not worth betting on if the spread is large, but 1.5 points and the opposing breaking in a new quarterback? Looks good to me.

 and get them greedy stinkin books

Why are they favored by so little against a new QB? 

Is it official Martinez is out ? Nebraska surprisingly moved the ball very well against Wisconsin , but with Martinez we prolbably won’t get a good looking offense 

That line is scary as hell.

I went small on Nebraska ML…. They’re a tough out and Iowas lack of offense might be the right recipe for them to finally pull one out

I was on Nebraska early in the week but backing off without martinez, too much of an unknown for me. 

First of all, Martinez is definitely out for Fridays game. Confirmed by coach and multiple reliable media sources.

Second of all the line moved 5 points after the announcement was made, so that confirms it further. 

I always look at the numbers, specifically average yards per game divided into 4 categories, rushing and passing offense and yards given up rushing and passing defense. BIG difference between these two teams. Nebraska passed for 280 yards per game and has a huge offensive yards per game advantage. A lot of this was because they usually are coming from behind and had to be chucking the ball a lot more. Iowa has a much better defense and only gives up a little more than 100 yards per game rushing, an elite number. Martinez was fast and a very good scrambler as well, he was the teams leading rusher. 

Let’s take Martinez out of the game and replace him with a redshirt freshman going up against that Iowa defense. If he can’t be an effective passer than Nebraska is forced to run the ball against one of the best rushing defenses in the country. It is very rare for an inexperienced QB to be good his first start against an elite defense. Especially when he has only one week with the offense to prepare. Iowa has been exposed as not that good. They will probably grind out 20 plus points against Nebraska, like they do most weeks, but I’ll gladly take my chances. 

Don’t overthink it.

 Now let’s get them greedy stinkin books owned by billionaires who disdain you

I mean I agree, It's Iowa or nothing.. But nothing seems a bit more safe to me as of now. My problem is, we all know Martinez is awful so if a QB comes in and just doesn't turn the ball over that alone keeps you in the game against a team like Iowa.. My fear is that sooner or later Nebraska is gonna win one of these, and it's the last game at home after Frost and team don't have to think about whether or not their future is on the line.. He's coming back next year and the players know the deal already for next season.. These little things matter, but the magic question is two fold.. How much does Iowa care about winning this game? ... and does anyone have any idea how good or bad this Nebraska QB is? Is he serviceable?

I think Iowa cares about getting 10 wins.  A win here would also probably put them in a top tier bowl game.  A loss probably puts them in a mid-tier bowl.  Also, on the off chance that WIS loses to MIN, a win gives Iowa a berth in the Big10 championship game.  If that happens, they could be headed to the Rose Bowl.

Martinez threw one costly interception a game, it’s true. Besides that he is one hell of a lot better than the Iowa quarterback  His yards per game are actually impressive. 2800 yards passing and the leading rusher for the team as well. 

I gamble looking at the odds, the new Nebraska QB will likely be ineffective and if so Nebraska can’t move the ball. But I also look at the odds another way, I have to win 55% of the time or my account doesn’t grow. So a no play decision is a good one as well, most of the time. So I never argue with people who look at a game and say no play here. If you don’t reduce your bets to a small number you aren’t going to win long term.