Lets be careful with rutgers

Badlands,

 I wouldnt call that a trend as much as a market correction.  When teams go on winning and losing streaks ATS the linemakers raise or lower their stock.  They just dont let you ride or fade a team all year.  Granted some teams turn out to be either better or worse than the public ever thought.  Plenty of examples to go around.

That being said, RU has won what 5 straight games and covered the last 4 ats?  L'ville is 0-4 ATS in the last 4.  So there is certainly more value right now in backing L'ville.  We're going to get a big line here.  The books need a big line to get equal action. 

I dont see fading a team hot like RU at home.  L'ville is so up or down its hard to say what you will get from them.  The value is in the points, but I'm not willing to take them.  Not saying I wont play the game, but I still think its a bad line.

A win by lousiville would give them the same record  as Rutgers. So Rutgers will want to win just as bad for a bowl. Rutgers would still get a bowl game at 6-6 over Louisville at 6-6 because of better conference record. So even a win by Lousville doesn't give them a bowl game. They will have to wait and see if any bowl wants their sorry asses.

Louisville is a pretty sad team. Their receivers can't catch the ball and even if they could Cantwell over shoots them half the time. Louisville will have to rely on the run and I see Rutgers being amped for this game and not giving much up on the ground. Rutgers has been on fire. Kenny Britt has over 100 receiving yards the last 5 or 6 games. Who is going to cover him?

you really think they will put this game under 10? That would be the only way i don't like Rutgers. Doubt they put this at 9.

Rokodesh,

Needing a win isnt very convincing to me, but I will say this about backing RU giving points.  I've never seen RU shut it down.  Up 20 I always see starters in the game for RU and they keep trying to add more on.  Not so much this year, but in the past.

My gut tells me this line is high.

Another reason that concerns me about RU. I see the potential for some reverse line movement.  More wagering on RU, but the line drops because the line is artificially high books draw more money in on a high line when the line drops.

Yes he is... isn't he