I wouldn't trust PSU to score 11, so that line has to delfate accordingly. It might indicate, however, that there's not much value in the Mildcats.
Louisville will beat Rutgers, so the line won't matter. I assume the computer is reacting to RU's results, which I think flatter them greatly. Louisville gets better every week.
I don't really get the ULL line either.
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I wouldn't trust PSU to score 11, so that line has to delfate accordingly. It might indicate, however, that there's not much value in the Mildcats.
Louisville will beat Rutgers, so the line won't matter. I assume the computer is reacting to RU's results, which I think flatter them greatly. Louisville gets better every week.
UTEP will beat CSU by at least 20. This Rams team is terrible. They have no play makers on offense and lost their heart and soul on defense (Sisson). They will get blown out in El Paso 41-17.
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UTEP will beat CSU by at least 20. This Rams team is terrible. They have no play makers on offense and lost their heart and soul on defense (Sisson). They will get blown out in El Paso 41-17.
usually the reason lines are skewed from where they should be is simply a matter of perception vs. reality... people come into the year with preconceptions, and it is hard to completely overhaul them enough to compensate...
the lines are ultimately set by public perception (this is what the books do their best to gauge)... whereas the computers don't care about that...
best answer i can give you... unless there are significant injuries involved...
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usually the reason lines are skewed from where they should be is simply a matter of perception vs. reality... people come into the year with preconceptions, and it is hard to completely overhaul them enough to compensate...
the lines are ultimately set by public perception (this is what the books do their best to gauge)... whereas the computers don't care about that...
best answer i can give you... unless there are significant injuries involved...
UTEP will beat CSU by at least 20. This Rams team is terrible. They have no play makers on offense and lost their heart and soul on defense (Sisson). They will get blown out in El Paso 41-17.
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UTEP is a 5u play for me.
Quote Originally Posted by ballinbdub:
UTEP will beat CSU by at least 20. This Rams team is terrible. They have no play makers on offense and lost their heart and soul on defense (Sisson). They will get blown out in El Paso 41-17.
I wouldn't trust PSU to score 11, so that line has to delfate accordingly. It might indicate, however, that there's not much value in the Mildcats.
Louisville will beat Rutgers, so the line won't matter. I assume the computer is reacting to RU's results, which I think flatter them greatly. Louisville gets better every week.
I don't really get the ULL line either.
That line moved from -2.5 to +2 in a hurry. What gives there?
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Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:
I wouldn't trust PSU to score 11, so that line has to delfate accordingly. It might indicate, however, that there's not much value in the Mildcats.
Louisville will beat Rutgers, so the line won't matter. I assume the computer is reacting to RU's results, which I think flatter them greatly. Louisville gets better every week.
I don't really get the ULL line either.
That line moved from -2.5 to +2 in a hurry. What gives there?
I think Vandy is a very righteous play. Regarding PSU, I have lost my dollar betting either side of any game within 100 miles of where they are playing. I think you should too.
Regarding KSU-KU, I am KSU alum and have been a life long Wildcat... going back to Vince Gibson, long before Bill Snyder. When these two teams meet, anything can happen.... It's the last game on the board that I would touch. I do expect KSU by 17+, but that's the fan in me.
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I think Vandy is a very righteous play. Regarding PSU, I have lost my dollar betting either side of any game within 100 miles of where they are playing. I think you should too.
Regarding KSU-KU, I am KSU alum and have been a life long Wildcat... going back to Vince Gibson, long before Bill Snyder. When these two teams meet, anything can happen.... It's the last game on the board that I would touch. I do expect KSU by 17+, but that's the fan in me.
Ice - yeah man, got that. This is what I think happened with UNC. I bought the sleeper in the ACC crap, and come to find out that they just kind of stink. 5u on Clemson for me.
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Maine - LOL
Alt - will look more at Vandy.
Ice - yeah man, got that. This is what I think happened with UNC. I bought the sleeper in the ACC crap, and come to find out that they just kind of stink. 5u on Clemson for me.
I think you need to be asking the odds makers or the site operators why there is a difference between the lines. How does that site arrive at their lines?
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I think you need to be asking the odds makers or the site operators why there is a difference between the lines. How does that site arrive at their lines?
BA - I always assume lines are right. What I was trying to get, and maybe wasn't clear enough, was why there was a disparity. Like I said above, I "get" the reason that computers and NW are on a different page (Persa), but I dont get the disparity in the RUT, Ball ST, and ULL lines.
So far: Rutgers QB is horrible, and LU is the play - they have been getting better Not a word on Ball State but I see them on more than a few cards this week. ULL, nothing. Just that it seems wrong.
What I was hoping to get was a concrete reason that perception was so different from the computers in these games. I held off on Rutgers for just that reason.
One thing I thought as I was taking a walk and enjoying the fall foliage: A lot of people won a bunch of money on Louisville last week. They faced a Cincy team in a bad spot, and jumped on them early. Barely held on for the cover, and still lost by DD. Now they are good? I am looking at last weeks box scores and scratching my head. I am not seeing the Louisville love. I am trying...really I am...but nothing I see "statistically" says anything other than Louisville is a bad team.
Like I said, I haven't played this so I not defending a bet - just...curious.
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BA - I always assume lines are right. What I was trying to get, and maybe wasn't clear enough, was why there was a disparity. Like I said above, I "get" the reason that computers and NW are on a different page (Persa), but I dont get the disparity in the RUT, Ball ST, and ULL lines.
So far: Rutgers QB is horrible, and LU is the play - they have been getting better Not a word on Ball State but I see them on more than a few cards this week. ULL, nothing. Just that it seems wrong.
What I was hoping to get was a concrete reason that perception was so different from the computers in these games. I held off on Rutgers for just that reason.
One thing I thought as I was taking a walk and enjoying the fall foliage: A lot of people won a bunch of money on Louisville last week. They faced a Cincy team in a bad spot, and jumped on them early. Barely held on for the cover, and still lost by DD. Now they are good? I am looking at last weeks box scores and scratching my head. I am not seeing the Louisville love. I am trying...really I am...but nothing I see "statistically" says anything other than Louisville is a bad team.
Like I said, I haven't played this so I not defending a bet - just...curious.
I think you need to be asking the odds makers or the site operators why there is a difference between the lines. How does that site arrive at their lines?
Take a look - they grab about 50 computer rankings and them avg and mean them to make a "line". What I like is the SD (standard deviation) the lower, the more in line the computers are. I think this leads to good teasing opportunities.
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Quote Originally Posted by tep:
I think you need to be asking the odds makers or the site operators why there is a difference between the lines. How does that site arrive at their lines?
Take a look - they grab about 50 computer rankings and them avg and mean them to make a "line". What I like is the SD (standard deviation) the lower, the more in line the computers are. I think this leads to good teasing opportunities.
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