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This season I started with $800 and am now sitting with 24k after 5k withdrawn...98% of my bets came after the game started and about 70% was betting 1h unders. However, I netted a lot more in CFB and gave some back trying to use the same strategies in NFL games. Here are some things that helped me and what I learned to avoid:
-The trend is your friend, in CFB only: College, keep pounding the under as it's going down if that is the clear trend. NFL, you generally fade the action...buy over after punts, under after TDs etc because you get a lot of sucker trends.
-Isolate teams with bad offenses, inept QBs and lack of athletes who win games by controlling the clock and LOS. B1G, I'm looking at you. Muschamp, I'm looking at you. If you find a situation where a team can really only score 7-14 pts (Washington vs Alabama), that's where you want to hit some in-game full game unders. Only 1 team will be scoring, and the other team will kill clock in the 2h.
-On that note, look for situations where it makes sense for teams to chill in the 2nd half. Ex: bowl games where one team is ahead by a lot, teams trying to avoid injury, teams trying to avoid an embarrassing blowout. Try to find spots where offenses shrink the playbook and don't look to stretch the field.
-Bad weather games in CFB, the weather is more impactful on the score than NFL. NFL QBs have rocket arms and can cut through the wind easier, while some of these poor college QBs just do not have enough arm strength to throw it downfield in a gale force Hurricane Matthew situation. On that note, use your eyes in those bad weather games. If the field is a swamp and no one can get their footing, it's a good time to hit the in-game under EVERY CHANCE you get. You'd be surprised to see how many times the books don't adjust their in-game spreads...for example in the ND-NC St game they were giving me normal o/u the entire first half while the field was a swamp w/ 30 mph winds. All of those Hurricane Matthew games in gale force winds, they didn't adjust the in-game o/u numbers. Amazed me.
-The 2 min drill makes betting 1h unders VERY tough in the NFL unless you get it at a really good price. NFL coaches get so concerned about scoring and preventing a TD that clock management and D gets biased to the offensive side. I can't tell you how many times I got a bad price on a 1h under and seeing NFL teams score 10-14 pts in the final 2 minutes. They rarely just kill the clock with 1-2 min left in 1h like college teams do, because even the worst NFL QB can sling it down the field.
-If you bet the under and see that the Run Ds suck, too much cushion for WRs etc, keep your loss to 1-2 bets. The goal is to hammer and hammer solid trends, while minimizing bets when it's clear your judgement was wrong and the Ds are soft. I'm wrong often, just with fewer bets.
-Pick one or two days, and make a conscious effort to make ZERO bets to help build self-discipline. When I had good days I almost always gave a little back the next day getting my money in really thin situations.
-For me it's easier to see disparities in CFB as opposed to NFL. NFL I gotta get too deep into match ups...CFB just watch the LOS for the most part and go with that trend.
-DO NOT CHASE lines in NFL! That's the best way to give your money back on Sunday, lol. Teams are too professional and QBs are too good for massive trend betting.
Good luck next season and manage your bankroll well!
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