There are two I am eyeing. First is Ole Miss with Kiffin and Dart. Not a fan of hearing that Dart now has a private jet. But he could be the next Heisman. Getting +1500 on DK. The next is LSU as I think any SEC team has the best shot at winning so why not take two SEC teams. They lost a lot but they always reload well. Getting +1400 at Caesers. Final is real long shot. Complete dark horse. But if this team can run the table in the Big 12 they get into the expanded tournament and anything can happen. They have a good league schedule. They aren't playing any SEC teams on the road. As a matter of fact their road games are beatable. In conference their toughest opponents are at home. Everyone knows it hard to win in the Little Apple. I am going with K-State +10000. Yes that is +10000.
Thoughts?
Edit: There is no point taking the Georgia, Ohio State or Bamas of the world. Yes they are the ones likely to win it. Yes I understand this is more of a longshot. But I did put pretty good size bets on the Timberwolves and the Thunder to win both the west and the NBA championship. I will hedge as we get to the playoffs. But I have a lot of gambling equity to worth with.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
There are two I am eyeing. First is Ole Miss with Kiffin and Dart. Not a fan of hearing that Dart now has a private jet. But he could be the next Heisman. Getting +1500 on DK. The next is LSU as I think any SEC team has the best shot at winning so why not take two SEC teams. They lost a lot but they always reload well. Getting +1400 at Caesers. Final is real long shot. Complete dark horse. But if this team can run the table in the Big 12 they get into the expanded tournament and anything can happen. They have a good league schedule. They aren't playing any SEC teams on the road. As a matter of fact their road games are beatable. In conference their toughest opponents are at home. Everyone knows it hard to win in the Little Apple. I am going with K-State +10000. Yes that is +10000.
Thoughts?
Edit: There is no point taking the Georgia, Ohio State or Bamas of the world. Yes they are the ones likely to win it. Yes I understand this is more of a longshot. But I did put pretty good size bets on the Timberwolves and the Thunder to win both the west and the NBA championship. I will hedge as we get to the playoffs. But I have a lot of gambling equity to worth with.
Feels like if Dart was THAT DUDE he'd have shown us he was THAT DUDE by now .. doesn't mean the team around won't be better but like 3 games stick out last year Bama UGA and Miss St passing was horrible even Auburn had some big throws but 10 outta 16 think there's a reason he wasn't more involved .. I think losing Judkins is a legit hit guy carried the load and Kiff wants to be 4th n go he needs a go to guy .. Ole Miss w far and away their best model projection in idk how long and they can't get their biggest stud to stay? .. I get Buckeyes clearly a better shot for a natty and im sure they paid him all he wanted but that seems really odd to me and yeah Dart rollin in a jet and best guy leaves, idk whose makin those decisions but you just ain't winning if you don't have next level dudes and they lost a total playmaker almost 300 total rush + rec LY .. and yeah UGA blew em to smithereens they'll be very much in the way of everyone again .. For 14-1 I'd be out ..
Gotta see what LSU got .. what a bad deal they have such an epic player w Daniels and defense completely evaporates they were HORRIBLE on that side last year .. pick any LSU D of the last however long maybe 9 outta 10 have a really great shot .. yeah idk nussmeyer is prob a legit QB but he aint that dude .. ya wanna win the championship ya need that dude .. I'd want to know if those LSU receivers are back and what that looks like .. also traditional run game idk if it was anything to hang their hats on .. will play a WAYYYY bigger role w out Daniels rushing for more than the top 3 RB's combined did ..
Idk who I'm taking a longer shot on yeah need to know the QB and OC is right to give the team a shot .. Tenn might have a dude but i'd expect if they didn't have LSU fever on D the odds would be wayyy lower than they are .. Jaxon Arnold maybe a dude but maybe a year too soon I like how Venables gutted the team gettin ready for the SEC gettin it done w his much better recruits .. Reilly Leonard is such an ACE GAMER but holy crap ND didn't do much w Hartman .. the WR situation was bad and I doubt they had the right OC there, shame because they coulda been playoff material .. Think Wigman might get unlocked for a big year w Jimbo outta there / new coaches coming in .. Penn State fell off ALL the radars but just terrible WR situation LY really 1 WR and 2 TE's catching passes, terrible OC couldn't even get the run game going totally shut down vs OSU and stifled enough in quite a few others.. but Kansas OC coming in and if they get a couple targets to throw at we'll know real quick if Allar was the problem but idk O could ignite .. idk if this new age CFB world allows for 12 teams w a real shot though if Deboer used all his magic beans last year I think UGA romps and maybe OSU can get in their way if the offensive can get off the steep slip n slide they've been on ..
eh those are my thoughts .. congrats on B2B JACK ATTACK BUDDY .. How are they lookin for this year?!
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Feels like if Dart was THAT DUDE he'd have shown us he was THAT DUDE by now .. doesn't mean the team around won't be better but like 3 games stick out last year Bama UGA and Miss St passing was horrible even Auburn had some big throws but 10 outta 16 think there's a reason he wasn't more involved .. I think losing Judkins is a legit hit guy carried the load and Kiff wants to be 4th n go he needs a go to guy .. Ole Miss w far and away their best model projection in idk how long and they can't get their biggest stud to stay? .. I get Buckeyes clearly a better shot for a natty and im sure they paid him all he wanted but that seems really odd to me and yeah Dart rollin in a jet and best guy leaves, idk whose makin those decisions but you just ain't winning if you don't have next level dudes and they lost a total playmaker almost 300 total rush + rec LY .. and yeah UGA blew em to smithereens they'll be very much in the way of everyone again .. For 14-1 I'd be out ..
Gotta see what LSU got .. what a bad deal they have such an epic player w Daniels and defense completely evaporates they were HORRIBLE on that side last year .. pick any LSU D of the last however long maybe 9 outta 10 have a really great shot .. yeah idk nussmeyer is prob a legit QB but he aint that dude .. ya wanna win the championship ya need that dude .. I'd want to know if those LSU receivers are back and what that looks like .. also traditional run game idk if it was anything to hang their hats on .. will play a WAYYYY bigger role w out Daniels rushing for more than the top 3 RB's combined did ..
Idk who I'm taking a longer shot on yeah need to know the QB and OC is right to give the team a shot .. Tenn might have a dude but i'd expect if they didn't have LSU fever on D the odds would be wayyy lower than they are .. Jaxon Arnold maybe a dude but maybe a year too soon I like how Venables gutted the team gettin ready for the SEC gettin it done w his much better recruits .. Reilly Leonard is such an ACE GAMER but holy crap ND didn't do much w Hartman .. the WR situation was bad and I doubt they had the right OC there, shame because they coulda been playoff material .. Think Wigman might get unlocked for a big year w Jimbo outta there / new coaches coming in .. Penn State fell off ALL the radars but just terrible WR situation LY really 1 WR and 2 TE's catching passes, terrible OC couldn't even get the run game going totally shut down vs OSU and stifled enough in quite a few others.. but Kansas OC coming in and if they get a couple targets to throw at we'll know real quick if Allar was the problem but idk O could ignite .. idk if this new age CFB world allows for 12 teams w a real shot though if Deboer used all his magic beans last year I think UGA romps and maybe OSU can get in their way if the offensive can get off the steep slip n slide they've been on ..
eh those are my thoughts .. congrats on B2B JACK ATTACK BUDDY .. How are they lookin for this year?!
I had NMSU last year 30-1 huge bet and very nearly had no chance to hedge .. Lib was 21 pt favs on the look ahead line until NMSU beat auburn .. things came back to reality a bit but still made for a much crappier payday .. idk what the ML was but I think 15k if they won and I coulda hedged out like idk 3k max and I prob ended up just getting like half of that .. not cool .. really not cool when all my other fun long shots looked okay but flunked out .. Duke, Texas State, Miami, AZ think a few others ..
I bring that up because while yeah I don't hate the K-State big odds play I'd maybe tamp it down if there's like a quarter/semi final prop with some decent odds like 20x or something .. The big kahuna for 100x maybe worth it if you can get past the first round start hedging but playoff scenarios feel like they'll be heartbreaking for the long shots .. you slay all the dragons and yer still likely 4 GAMES AWAY??!!! .. all are very tough .. and w the big boys getting a bye week knowing who they got next like if you aint top 4 seeds yer toast pretty much shows up burnt .. cool to have 100-1 in that spot but what do we get at that point still have potentially 3 games of hedging to do as likely a decent if not huge dog .. do your best projection / wildest dreams come true for K-ST they secure a 1st round bye get easier first game .. we gettin paid if we're lookin at OSU / UGA final 2 games to hedge or is that end up being a sickening scenario need a 2nd mortgage just to maybe eek out like 5-1 hedge? .. like put a hundo down now to win 10k .. have a dream year and best we get is 500 or 1k maybe .. idk that's what I think happens to most big long shots ..
I went another way I took Avery Johnson Heisman 40-1 .. they have a dream ssn I think he's every bit the reason they do it and at least a shot to get to NY as the odds on fav or maybe not a huge dog to bring home the hardware .. Dream season is not easy w K-State's schedule tho .. FCS opener .. roadie to Tulane should be a win this time but revenge game for sure and they'll be all systems go that week .. then Arizona .. technically a noncon game but they gotta show up if they're serious about a playoff bye week... then its the 9 game conference schedule and they got the extra 5th roadie this year .. Farmageddon roadie right at the end right before conf champ game then hopefully get a playoff bye .. eesh .. easy looking conf schedule is still a pretty rough ride final 11 games has 10 conf foes and a trip to Tulane ..
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@jesron1269
I had NMSU last year 30-1 huge bet and very nearly had no chance to hedge .. Lib was 21 pt favs on the look ahead line until NMSU beat auburn .. things came back to reality a bit but still made for a much crappier payday .. idk what the ML was but I think 15k if they won and I coulda hedged out like idk 3k max and I prob ended up just getting like half of that .. not cool .. really not cool when all my other fun long shots looked okay but flunked out .. Duke, Texas State, Miami, AZ think a few others ..
I bring that up because while yeah I don't hate the K-State big odds play I'd maybe tamp it down if there's like a quarter/semi final prop with some decent odds like 20x or something .. The big kahuna for 100x maybe worth it if you can get past the first round start hedging but playoff scenarios feel like they'll be heartbreaking for the long shots .. you slay all the dragons and yer still likely 4 GAMES AWAY??!!! .. all are very tough .. and w the big boys getting a bye week knowing who they got next like if you aint top 4 seeds yer toast pretty much shows up burnt .. cool to have 100-1 in that spot but what do we get at that point still have potentially 3 games of hedging to do as likely a decent if not huge dog .. do your best projection / wildest dreams come true for K-ST they secure a 1st round bye get easier first game .. we gettin paid if we're lookin at OSU / UGA final 2 games to hedge or is that end up being a sickening scenario need a 2nd mortgage just to maybe eek out like 5-1 hedge? .. like put a hundo down now to win 10k .. have a dream year and best we get is 500 or 1k maybe .. idk that's what I think happens to most big long shots ..
I went another way I took Avery Johnson Heisman 40-1 .. they have a dream ssn I think he's every bit the reason they do it and at least a shot to get to NY as the odds on fav or maybe not a huge dog to bring home the hardware .. Dream season is not easy w K-State's schedule tho .. FCS opener .. roadie to Tulane should be a win this time but revenge game for sure and they'll be all systems go that week .. then Arizona .. technically a noncon game but they gotta show up if they're serious about a playoff bye week... then its the 9 game conference schedule and they got the extra 5th roadie this year .. Farmageddon roadie right at the end right before conf champ game then hopefully get a playoff bye .. eesh .. easy looking conf schedule is still a pretty rough ride final 11 games has 10 conf foes and a trip to Tulane ..
Hard to say .. feels like OSU / UGA will be on opposite sides of the bracket .. feels likely anyway .. the path is gunna be so treacherous this year especially thru the SEC and you need a complete team with a few champ caliber units and real depth to last thru I assume 13 games plus another 3 or 4 .. well I def want to only play 3 more lol .. and would be great if my long shot made the champ game vs another long shot .. not a 21 pt dog sure thing slaughter .. yeah dude idk .. really need UGA to be beatable and that seems totally possible w guys drafted, unsatisfied 5 stars leaving .. the DL wasn't as strong LY the pass D was still excellent and offense got better I thought w Beck .. Still looked beatable in a few games and bama did beat em .. Saw some Saban quotes today basically saying that in this era you can't hold all the Aces in the deck by being the best HC in the best program .. playing time and money is the currency and all the teams have a checkbook so it was just time for a new leader who could operate in this new era, wasn't the way he does it .. I think we could see things trend back to where consistently more like 5 or so teams every year have a legit shot, maybe not this year but soon .. seemed like we got a taste of that last year and way easier to make a case for a longer shot if there's not one or two sure thing behemoths amidst a gaggle of wannabes ..
Bama 16-1 seems like long enough odds to say they're a long shot .. I can at least say In Deboer We Trust and I think he can get Milroe to be his best and still has what's left of a great roster so I think they'll be okay but their schedule is really tough, lotta teams w a bye week or FCS game right before they play them .. kinda leaning to them if anyone for the longer odds but they could be a disaster too .. Don't let me talk ya out of anything either I'd hate to seeya pick a rabbit out of a hat and you get nothing for it lol .. good luck buddy
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@jesron1269
Hard to say .. feels like OSU / UGA will be on opposite sides of the bracket .. feels likely anyway .. the path is gunna be so treacherous this year especially thru the SEC and you need a complete team with a few champ caliber units and real depth to last thru I assume 13 games plus another 3 or 4 .. well I def want to only play 3 more lol .. and would be great if my long shot made the champ game vs another long shot .. not a 21 pt dog sure thing slaughter .. yeah dude idk .. really need UGA to be beatable and that seems totally possible w guys drafted, unsatisfied 5 stars leaving .. the DL wasn't as strong LY the pass D was still excellent and offense got better I thought w Beck .. Still looked beatable in a few games and bama did beat em .. Saw some Saban quotes today basically saying that in this era you can't hold all the Aces in the deck by being the best HC in the best program .. playing time and money is the currency and all the teams have a checkbook so it was just time for a new leader who could operate in this new era, wasn't the way he does it .. I think we could see things trend back to where consistently more like 5 or so teams every year have a legit shot, maybe not this year but soon .. seemed like we got a taste of that last year and way easier to make a case for a longer shot if there's not one or two sure thing behemoths amidst a gaggle of wannabes ..
Bama 16-1 seems like long enough odds to say they're a long shot .. I can at least say In Deboer We Trust and I think he can get Milroe to be his best and still has what's left of a great roster so I think they'll be okay but their schedule is really tough, lotta teams w a bye week or FCS game right before they play them .. kinda leaning to them if anyone for the longer odds but they could be a disaster too .. Don't let me talk ya out of anything either I'd hate to seeya pick a rabbit out of a hat and you get nothing for it lol .. good luck buddy
I really don’t know how its not Ohio St & UGA. Ohio St has a pretty easy schedule & with Howard at qb & Judkins at rb things should setup nice for them. ND does interest me because i think they get into playoffs but then will just ultimately lose to a UGA/Ohio St. Oregon same thing but really like Gabriel in that offense.
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I really don’t know how its not Ohio St & UGA. Ohio St has a pretty easy schedule & with Howard at qb & Judkins at rb things should setup nice for them. ND does interest me because i think they get into playoffs but then will just ultimately lose to a UGA/Ohio St. Oregon same thing but really like Gabriel in that offense.
i think championship odds have way too much juice. i would also like a few ACC and Big 12 teams... it is going to be very crowded to get out of SEC and Big 10 what is it? 14 teams or 12 teams?.. i thought 12 but 2 byes would make no sense and where OU and Texas going division-wise?
The SEC will not have divisions this season. The top two teams will meet for the Championship.
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Quote Originally Posted by jimrockford22:
i think championship odds have way too much juice. i would also like a few ACC and Big 12 teams... it is going to be very crowded to get out of SEC and Big 10 what is it? 14 teams or 12 teams?.. i thought 12 but 2 byes would make no sense and where OU and Texas going division-wise?
The SEC will not have divisions this season. The top two teams will meet for the Championship.
Starting this up again. My book is offering me a free $100 bet on any NCAAF future. I would like to take the longest odds option that has a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. Thoughts?
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Starting this up again. My book is offering me a free $100 bet on any NCAAF future. I would like to take the longest odds option that has a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. Thoughts?
@jesron1269 A&M and Penn State as longshots maybe ... Aggies beat NDame? - schedule is manageable. Same with Penn State. Oregon as a reasonable bet - Ducks are tough.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
@jesron1269 A&M and Penn State as longshots maybe ... Aggies beat NDame? - schedule is manageable. Same with Penn State. Oregon as a reasonable bet - Ducks are tough.
I like the Oregon idea with Phil Knight giving unlimited NIL money to bring how a championship. I just don't know if it gets done this year. Good suggestions though.
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@bookieassassin
I like the Oregon idea with Phil Knight giving unlimited NIL money to bring how a championship. I just don't know if it gets done this year. Good suggestions though.
I really like the K State pick. If they win the big 12 they get a bye into the quarter finals and they would host that game. (if I understand the playoff correctly). Much easier path then one of the longer shot SEC teams
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@jesron1269
I really like the K State pick. If they win the big 12 they get a bye into the quarter finals and they would host that game. (if I understand the playoff correctly). Much easier path then one of the longer shot SEC teams
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