MIAF is overrated

They are ranked #6 by the AP, but just #21 by Ken Massey's power ratings.  They gave up 34 to VTCH and then 38 to CAL.  In those two games combined, they failed to cover by 21 points.

I probably won't bet the game, but LOU might just pull off the upset.

miami is 0ne of the worst top 6 schools Ive seen penn state seems overrated too

They also didn’t care about those 2 teams at all, that were actually pretty decent offensive teams. That’s what happens..

Agree. USC might pull of the upset 

Everything's bigger in Texas.

The committee won’t have to worry about leaving an undefeated acc team out again this year. I think might Miami cruise through the conference. 

ward restrepo is lethal

I really don't follow NCAAFB, but I did watch bits of the MIAF-LOU game.  Restrepo looked VERY good to my untrained eyes.

Restrepo is the man

It's official - MIAF has the worst Top 8 DEF in the history of the Sports Database which goes back to the 1989 season (over 26,000 games).

This query confirms it:

rank < 8.5 and p:dpa > 14.2 and pp:dpa > 14.2 and ppp:dpa > 14.2

NO previous query results; FLST-MIAF is the first and only one.

DPA (delta points allowed) is roughly the change in DEF points allowed vs the opponent's team total.  So this query basically states that no other team ranked in the top 8 has allowed 14.5 points or more than expected for three consecutive games.

Obviously since it never happened before there is no predictive value.  I had a "mental bet" on LOU last week, but the query that I posted in spottie2935's Week 8 thread came through and it had MIAF with a nice sample size.  I keep expecting some sort of positive regression in MIAF's weak DEF but it has not yet happened.

If someone has a strong opinion on the FLST-MIAF game with some validation please post and discuss.  TIA.