My Large Play In Week 3

Texas ST -3 over Southern Miss.

Southern Miss is a bad team, they just are...Yeah they are a little bit improved....Only lost to MISS ST by 18 which was a moral victory for them...Their H.C. who they nabbed from OKST (was O-COORD) is 5-21..And playing in CONF USA they dont exactly have to face powerhouses week to week.....Their QB Nick Mullens is just so inconsistent and inaccurate..He is 5-15 as a starter...Has thrown 29 TDS and whopping 27 INTS....Granted he has not had much of a running game and poor blocking at times but he never goes out and wins a game for you....Just not a threat, looks scared in the pocket, stiff, he's small being under 200 LBS and he cannot run at all....This team brought in a couple JUCO transfers to build around him but still not enough..Not yet there and will struggle on the road against a much better Texas ST team....The Bobcats of TEX-ST bring back 4 starting  O-Lineman and 2 more with starting EXP. and they are a very good unit. They are great at run blocking. RB Robert Lowe will have the table set again for him, a four year back who is coming off a 1000+ YD season and 6.5 career YDS per carry...Their best weapon, by far is their QB Tyler Jones...Last year was his 1st full year as a starter and he put up a 65% completion rate, threw 22 TDS and only 7 INTS, threw for 2700YDS and is a duel threat as he rushed for another 540 YDS...He could start for a ton of teams out there including some of those SEC teams with bad QBS....He will give Southern MISS problems on Saturday.....He is 12-8 as a starter for a team that was not much of an offense threat before he arrived...He is no Nick Mullens  thats for sure....I think TEX ST is a 7.5 PT favorite on a neutral field.......I am guessing the line is low based on the fact TEX ST was destroyed by Florida ST and as I said earlier  Southern MISS only lost to MISS ST by 18.....S MISS did kill Austin Peay but anybody who follows the FCS knows that they are among the weakest teams in that DIV...I think they won 1 game last year..

TEX ST is my large play of the week....Hoping to continue where I finished last Saturday as I went 10-5...........The rest of my plays are as follows:

  Navy           - 3.5                      $300   

  Toledo          -7.5                      $300

  Iowa            -5.5                       $300
  USC             -10                       $200
 Texas          +6.5                       $200
 TEX ST         -3                         $400

U-Conn / MIZZ OVER 41           $100
Purdue / V-Tech UNDER 46.5   $100

Year to date 18-10 + $1130



Vanderbilt is a 42 PT favorite VS Austin Peay
and the total is 47.5...Staying away. was hoping for -35


Good Luck Fellas

GL

I had Texas St circled as my top play also, I've seen a cpl other post that like Texas St, im feeling more comfortable to let it fly on Texas St Good Luck

Mike I like this play as well. I have been eyeing this one all week. I may hop on the ride with you here.

Good write up MikeMed.  Didn't know a damned thing about the Bobcats and now I do! 

I'm liking the picks all winners here!! thx for sharing!! 

SYRACUSEJOE, what about Cuse this weekend? I have Cuse marked as a regular play.

LMAO, love honesty

Good luck man!

as a TXST fan and someone who goes to every home game id be careful. yes T Jones is really good and so is our RB but our defense has looked bad so far this season and if they slow our running game down they would have a great chance at winning. everyone around here thinks its going to be shootout and if i was betting id take the over in this game. hope yall all do well with the bet .. God willing well win the game! Eat Em Up Cats

Mike,

Going to tail you here thanks for some good info.

Wow, they are coached by Dennis Franchione, interesting.

At first read, you almost had me persuaded,  Nice write-up.  But I handicapped this from a different perspective and my numbers are just too close to find an advantage.  If anything, I think this is a high scoring affair, but to pick a side?...good luck.

Yeah if everybody used the same philosophy or similar formulas to determine a play things would be a lot less interesting around here.

I never use the word guarantee and the only lock I am sure of is that there is no such thing...

This CFB season, every week I am posting my actual bets, opinions, and some insight as to why I am playing a specific wager on 1 thread...Also I am writing  a separate post with a more detailed write-up on my strongest wager.

Before I view the official lines I run down the schedule and form my own rough line of the games. I use the ideology that I am the book and assign a number I would be comfortable giving for each game with the mind set that a bad number will cost me money. My first line is made with the assumption that the game is being played on a neutral field....Home field advantages are not all equal (especially in CFB) and  I tend to give a little more of an advantage to a home team than the average capper.

My number I assign and the opening line are usually pretty close. Its hard to find that edge....Just gotta hit more than I drop....I am not the guy that comes back screaming fix or bashing a coach for allowing his guys to "overlook" a team...

This is my best bet this week (or biggest line discrepancy) I actually had this line at  -7.5 ......

Normally I just post my picks but in week 1,  I liked Temple so much against Penn ST I posted a thread just for that game and broke it down (played SU  and ML)   In week 2 I posted 1 thread with all my picks but did a write-up on just the WASH ST / Rutgers game (before my bud scal) as WASH ST was my strongest play...Decided to keep up the all plays as well as best plays and hope I keep on nailing them..

I do usually play 2-3 totals a week and would lean with the over here but I could really see a lopsided win with who I think is just the better team with the much better QB and @ home....Good luck buddy.

WOW.....And Nick Mullens has the best day of his collegiate career....Can TEX ST score 17 in 6 MINS. for me ??? probably not but Nick Mullens has never let me down yet so I have a little hope....Any other game it would be off the screen.....This would hurt a lot more if I was not up for the day....Lets GO Bobcats....I need a miracle.