Well had a good day yesterday with Atlanta and the over I do pretty good during the week it's Saturday and Sunday that kill me.
Bowling Green + 3.5 over Buffalo
Buffalo started its season strong with a 23-17 road win at UTEP, but the Bulls followed that up with four straight losses. Since then, they have wins over Gardner-Webb and Akron, and a three-point loss at Western Michigan.
Bowling Green has followed an identical path as Buffalo. The Falcons won their first game over Troy, but then lost four games in a row. After that, they won two in a row . But the losses to Marshall and Ohio were both winnable games that the Falcons lost by just a touchdown. They have notched two MAC road wins over Kent State and Ball State.
Buffalo is led by quarterback Zach Maynard, who has thrown for 1,998 yards, 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His two main targets are Naaman Roosevelt, and Brett Hamlin. Ide Nduka and Brandon Thermilus split the carries for the Bulls. Nduka has 88 carries for 568 yards and five touchdowns, while Thermilus has 78 carries for 293 yards two touchdowns. Nduka is clearly the more effective running back with a 6.5 yards-per-carry average as compared to Thermilus's 3.8 average.
Bowling Green QB Tyler Sheehan is one of the top quarterbacks in college football this season. He has thrown for 2,677 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions with a 65.1 completion percentage. The Falcons are a strong throw-first team, as they have attempted 408 passes and handed the ball off only 165 times. One of the major reasons for Sheehan's success is wide receiver Freddie Barnes. Barnes leads the country in receptions and receiving yards. The next closest receiver has 67 receptions, 32 less than Barnes's 99. Sheehan ranks second in the country in passing yards.
Buffalo's pass defense is above average nationally, as the Bulls have allowed 202.9 passing yards per game and eight passing touchdowns, while they have four interceptions for the year.
The key to stopping Bowling Green is definitely stopping its passing attack, specifically Barnes. Sheehan doesn't turn the ball over much, but the Bulls must get good pressure on him to disrupt his throws. Buffalo needs to control the clock when it has the ball. The Bulls must run the ball as much as possible to score some points and keep the Falcons offense off the field. Based on each team's last performance, Bowling Green is the smart play. Nobody has shut down Sheehan and Barnes, and Buffalo isn't going to be the team to do so. The Bulls were abused through the air in their last game, while the Falcons shut down Central Michigan's passing game in their last game.
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