NCAA - Write Ups and Picks - Ronistotle

FYI I will be posting automated write ups on certain games (both teams at least 4 games) and make my picks based on the numbers etc. This is my newer account (previous "theMONEYteam22") since Covers limiting the "new account" (created 2019) to 5 posts a day I may post/reply with both. Sorry for the confusion.

Posted NCAA Plays = 1-0 (5 Units)

Posted NFL Plays = 0-1 (.5 Units)

I have been having a great NCAA season so far, hoping it continues... NFL another story anywayyy

First Game & Favorite Game of 12PM Slate - Wake Forest @ UNC:

Away team WAKE has covered 5 of 6 (83.33%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 13.9 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -5.0 points.

WAKE has scored the following point totals:

[38, 23, 40, 66, 42, 13]

Averaging 37.0 over all games, 33.67 over the last 3, and 41.8 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[14, 16, 23, 14, 45, 37]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 24.83 points for all games and 17.67 over L3.

___________________________________________

Home team UNC has covered 4 of 7 (57.14%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 10.5 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -12.5 points.

UNC has scored the following point totals:

[56, 41, 48, 28, 56, 26, 31]

Averaging 40.86 over all games, 48.33 over the last 3, and 45.8 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[24, 44, 21, 31, 45, 22, 6]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 27.57 points for all games and 29.67 over L3.

Thanks for stats now what's the pick??

Looking at this one these teams line up pretty well, I am not seeing a huge difference between the Run/Pass offense and defense. UNC does have the upper hand in running offense, sitting at 14th in the nation averaging 239.4 yds/game while WF allows 180.3 yds/game (74th in nation). 

Looking deeper into the offense/defensive it is really tight with UNC getting the slight advantage almost across the board.

With all this said, when WF covers (and they do at a great rate 83.33% on this year) they cover by an average of 13.9 points, and the one ATS loss was by 5 points. UNC is a different story covering 57% (4/7) of the time (not terrible) however when they failed to cover it was by an average margin of -12.5 points. These games were against only marginal opponents in my book (FSU, UVA, and BC)

I put my money in last night and hate giving a line that isn't current (now at 11.5) but that also makes me feel better that I got a nice line and sharp money (hopefully) is driving line movement.

WAKE FOREST +13.5 (.75 Units)

WAKE FOREST TEAM TOTAL OVER 27.5 (.75 Units)

Also thinking about sprinkling a bit on the ML. BOL to all, hope you have a great day

I'm seeing the same, power ratings UNC -4 to -6. huge value on wake with the better defense

Wanted to keep you waiting in suspense (jk wanted to write it up) 

One more game coming for 12PM slot

MIDDLE TENN @ MARSHALL:

Away team MTU has covered 4 of 7 (57.14%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 6.875 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -30.17 points.

MTU has scored the following point totals:

[40, 35, 31, 17, 35, 14, 0]

Averaging 24.57 over all games, 35.33 over the last 3, and 31.6 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[34, 52, 28, 20, 37, 47, 42]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 37.14 points for all games and 38.0 over L3.

___________________________________________

Home team MRSH has covered 4 of 6 (66.67%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 18.25 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -6.0 points.

MRSH has scored the following point totals:

[51, 20, 35, 38, 17, 59]

Averaging 36.67 over all games, 35.33 over the last 3, and 32.2 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[10, 9, 17, 14, 7, 0]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 9.5 points for all games and 12.0 over L3.

Middle Tennessee doesnt match up well at all against a Marshall program that has been having a wonderful year. MTU has covered at a decent clip 57% but when they don't cover it's ugly, by an average margin of -30 points.

Marshall has huge advantages in more than one area:

- MTU Offense ranked 88th in the country to Marshall's 3rd ranked overall defense

- MTU 84th ranked rushing attack (140 yds/gm) facing Marshall 1st in nation (allowing 67 yds/gm)

- MTU 92nd in nation scoring to the 2nd best defense for Marshall

- Marshall has the 27th (209 yds/gm) best rushing attack facing MTU who ranks 115th (allowing 247 yds/gm)

- Marshall 27th ranked scoring offense to MTU 101st ranked pts allowed

MARSHALL -23.5 (.75 Unit)

Let’s go boys!!!

4 - 0 NCAA (+6.5 Units)

0 - 1 NFL  (-5. Units)

Let’s go ladies and gentleman!

I hope some other were on this as well, preyers that we don’t give it back tomorrow!!