NCAA FOOTBALL WEEK 6 66-53 YTD +14.52u

17-8 on the week for week 5

66-53 Season to date. 

week 5

17 wins: +17.88

8 losses: -7.75

Net: +10.13

Ncaa fb week 5 - Page 2 - College Football | Covers

Locked in quite a few sunday afternoon and monday morning, all plays are submitted, logged and tracked on the green checkmark app and bluebird, but havent gotten around to making my thread here yet. 

WEEK 6 CARD:

Thursday: UTEP +11.5 (would still play at 10.5)

Friday: Jax State -13.5 (would play smaller at current number)

           Michigan State +24.5 .66u 

Saturday:

Army vs. Tulsa over 51

Louisville -6.5

Navy -7 (would still play)

Penn State -27.5

BC ML +108

Miami OH +7.5 (likely a pass now unless you see a +7)

Vandy +25.5 (would still play above 23)

California +11 (play it at +10 or higher)

still assessing the card and reviewing spots, stats, injuries, and the such. going to be a smaller card this week as we have less games to consider. 

also waiting on some FCS lines to get posted for the week, going to have a six pack of FCS plays for the week. 

With you on Louisville, sure hope the Good Lord blesses Brohm with time/clock management this week because the end of the ND game was elementary at best.  Couldn't believe my eyes they pissed away 30 seconds with all three timeouts, called a QB sneak just for a false start to happen.  Then call a timeouts on 4th and 6 just for Shough to launch a bomb in double coverage.  

@ParlayPurd

 yEAH, I would guess they play a lot better football this week. 

@steponaduck

 Prior to the game I thought Louisville aired it out but they are a ground and pound team with a good play action passing game.  Shough is definitely a statue tho and needs his base for accurate throws.

FCS Games I am looking at wagering on: all subject to line releases. there could be others, but right now just projecting where the lines might show up and if they are at these numbers i will submit wagers and post. 

Harvard (Friday) -1

Central Conn. State +21

Cornell +8.5

Delaware/Monmouth over 65

Norfolk St/ Sacred Heart under 48.5

SE Missouri St -11

Wagner +7.5

Davidson -15.5

McNeese St -4.5

Southern U +18.5

William and Mary -4

Montana State -33.5

Western Ill + Charleston Southern over 55.5

Glad to see you on CAL and M.OH, a couple of leans I was considering. Great job last week

Scratch that. Harvard is NOT a play. UNH would be the play Friday night 

UTEP/ Sam Houston:

Spot play- back and forth game last year that UTEP won on a late field goal. UTEP at home for this one off of a bye week, change at quarterback to Cade McConnell, who is the better player, but HC SW stuck with his guy Locklear from AP until he realized he just had to make the switch.

UTEP playing much better of late down just 14-10 at liberty late third quarter and only outgained by 80 yards. Down 21-10 they were SOD on the Lib 13 on 4 and 2

Colorado State game: UTEP down 24-3, FINALLY make the switch, McConnell leads them on two long scoring drives to get back in it. Down 7 with the ball late, They cannot convert 4 and 5 at midfield. Lose by 10.

SHSU off a program defining win against Texas state and SHSU clearly improved. Offensively they have some explosion that we haven’t seen from them yet. But… they were down 29-7 against the bobs, and down 39-21 late in the 3 quarter before scoring the last 19. Texas State GJ Kinne rolled the dice three times and came up 7s all of them. SOD inside his own territory twice, then missed a short FG which allowed SHSU to go down and end it with their own Field Goal.

Line is giving SHSU too much respect here. Good team, a team I feel can compete for the conference title but I am not sold on them going on the road with UTEP off a bye week, big news out of UTEP camp with them joining the MWC, late kick out west, UTEP plays well enough offensively to get the cover. UTEP +11

Hawaii/SDSU

Aztecs could not get it going in the second half against CMU after a pretty solid first half. Lost on a last second field goal has to be extremely deflating  as the Aztecs have now lost their last three games. I am not convinced Danny O’Niel or Tupou’ata Johnson are any good at QB. Running back Cooper has been good, but Hawaii has a really solid underrated front 7. Run d allowing just 4.1 YPC and 126 yards per game rushing. 8 sacks, tons of pressure, cannot see this going well for SDSU offensively as they are running the Sean Lewis “Flash Fast” offense but they are going no where fast. Hawaii has a major spot up next hosting boise but needs to start piling up the wins.

SDSU is just plain bad, I like Sean Lewis but they clearly don’t have the pieces to run the offense the way he wants to.

SDSU just 20/58 on third down 34% and 4/10 on 4 down. Not going to cut it. Hawaii is allowing 21/56 on third down. A couple things here that will stress the SDSU offensive line.  They are in third down a ton. 1 and 2 down are not going so well for them. They allow a ton of havoc plays against them. 10 sacks and numerous pressures and TFL’s. Hawaii gets home on d with 8 sacks and they create pressure. Their bad loss at SHSU has kinda aged well as the Bearkats are much tougher than expected. This is a spot for me where I like Hawaii in this game, but both teams are UNDER teams and I am isolating the DEFENSE that I trust more against the OFFENSE that I trust less. SDSU team total under 25.5

VANDY +24. Massive spot Vandy off of a bye week, Alabama off of the thrilling massive game hosting UGA, BIG lead gotten out to, followed by a complete collapse only to have it saved by an incredible play by WR. Vanderbilt totally different team this year with Pavia and Co. on the field. No longer the throw away game it used to be. Bama escapes with a  win in a game for the ages. Bama is the better team. They could likely win the game by whatever they want. But where is the motivation to double back at practice after just defeating Georgia. You play like you practice and its hard to imagine they are putting the pedal down 100% after the emotion of last week. We have seen sleepy spots before (Vandy/Mizzou) where the dog just hangs around. I had this spot circled in the off season as one where Vanderbilt can throw a punch or two and keep this close. South Florida hung around for ever in that one, 21-16 with 6 minutes left in the 4 quarter. You can see there are some things on defense that bama needs to correct, and with what vandy will roll out there offensively I think they can move it a bit. Pavia wont be intimidated by anything bama throws out there.

Boise -26. Just head and shoulders a much better football team. This Utah state defense is going to just get absolutely destroyed in this one. Boise doesn’t have to throw a pass and Jeanty will run for 250+. Utags played up a bit against big brother in the Utah/Utah state rivalry but after going up 14-3 were outgained 35-7 the rest of the way. Utah state destroyed by USC and shockingly destroyed by temple. Giving up 451 yards and 10/16 on third down was really a bad performance. Shockingly, Utah State was up 14-0 in that game before rolling over face up. 45-15 temple run the rest of the way? 28-8 in the second half. Just no defense for Utah state and no resistance will be given in this game. When its 49-10 late in the third quarter and USU needs 2 scores to get within the number and they have already deployed the 2 team offense, not going to happen. Boise will score and score and score again just like the Portland state game, it wont be close and this is not enough points. There will come a time to fade boise state, but it is not this week.

WEEK 6 CARD:

Thursday: UTEP +11.5

Friday: Jax State -13.5

           Michigan State +24.5 .66u 

Saturday:

Army vs. Tulsa over 51

Louisville -6.5

Navy -7

Penn State -27.5

BC ML +108

Miami OH +7.5

Vandy +25.5

California +114

Boise State -26

Miami OH: similar to what I said in the pre-season for MAC conference futures. Don’t bet Miami OH now, wait until the perception changes with this team before making a play. Now you can get Miami +700 or +800 to win the MAC. So what have we seen from them? 1-3 start as predicted. Held NW in check. Struggled with Cincinatti in a Bearcat payback scenario for last year. Rivalary game. Competed defensively with ND for a half before falling too far behind. Struggled with umass, (so did toledo, rockets outgained by 130 yards, rocket offense only 12 first downs) Toledo loses to WKU last week after building a 21-10 lead and surrendering it. Couldn’t score most of the 2H. Why is toledo getting so much respect here? Because they blasted Mississippi state? Well they aren’t playing Mississippi state this week.

We know that Toledo goes all out in the non con (ND close loss, Toledo Close loss, SEC games close) and Miami doesn’t. Miami OH never maxes out in the non con (blowout losses against KY, Miami OH, ND this year) but the redhawks always find a way to ratchet it up in MAC play. I just don’t see enough separation in these two teams while jockeying for position in MAC play. Toledo is good, maybe better than expected, and In fairness, I took +7.5 when it opened up, but with such a low total vegas is projecting a defensive battle and miami d hasn’t really played that badly this year. I think the preseason MAC favorite certainly has the stuff needed to go in there and make a game of it. Grab a 7 and strap up.

WEEK 6 CARD:

Thursday: UTEP +11.5

Friday: Jax State -13.5

           Michigan State +24.5 .66u 

Saturday:

Army vs. Tulsa over 51

Louisville -6.5

Navy -7

Penn State -27.5

BC ML +108

Miami OH +7.5

Vandy +25.5

California +114

San Diego State team total under 25.5

Boise State -26

Good stuff brother 

@steponaduck

 Solid card.... ...But Navy -10 still a play?.....

Good luck Duck.  

WEEK 6 CARD:

Thursday: UTEP +11.5

Friday: Jax State -13.5

           Michigan State +24.5 .66u 

Saturday:

Army vs. Tulsa over 51

Louisville -6.5

Navy -7

Penn State -27.5

BC ML +108

Miami OH +7.5

Vandy +25.5

California +11

San Diego State team total under 25.5

Boise State -26

WEEK 6 CARD:

Thursday: UTEP +11.5

Friday: Jax State -13.5

           Michigan State +24.5 .66u 

Saturday:

Army vs. Tulsa over 51

Louisville -6.5

Navy -7

Penn State -27.5

BC ML +108

Miami OH +7.5

Vandy +25.5

California +11

San Diego State team total under 25.5

Boise State -26

Iowa + Ohio State over 44.5

Indiana + Northwestern under 42

Great stuff as always Duck - Good Luck with your plays 

Thanks guys 

WEEK 6 CARD:

Thursday: UTEP +11.5

Friday: Jax State -13.5

           Michigan State +24.5 .66u 

Saturday:

Army vs. Tulsa over 51

Louisville -6.5

Navy -7

Penn State -27.5

BC ML +108

Miami OH +7.5

Vandy +25.5

California +11

San Diego State team total under 25.5

Boise State -26

Iowa + Ohio State over 44.5

Indiana + Northwestern under 42

FCS: Central Connecticut State +21.5 .6u

FCS: Cornell ML +145 .6u

FCS: Northwestern State + Stephen F Austin over 45.5. 2 unit play 

SFA over 45.5? Action Network has over and under posted. 

Would you lean SFA -30.5? It's difficult to see paths for Northwestern St scoring