NCAAF - Cappers Paradise LETS GO

Iowa -5 -110 <1 unit>
Wait, Iowa is 0-2 and was laying -7 until all the money came in on MSU. MSU just beat Michigan OUTRIGHT as 21.5 point DOGS and is getting plenty of points to Iowa!? Iowa had a big lead over Northwest and squandered it away, and MSU held on to beat big brother Michigan as more than a three TD dog.  How in the hell did this game open -7?  It appears to us that the books are screaming PLEASE TAKE MSU and people have!  

Last week's Iowa vs Northwestern game slipped away from the physical Iowa team due in part to 3 tipped interceptions.  Were these solely on QB Spencer Petras; no, but a couple of passes were behind receivers and he will need to play better and let the IOWA physical style of play control the clock if they want to win today vs MSU. This game toal is really low at 46, and we aren’t going to lie to you… we typically do not like laying 7 when the total is this low in what we presume will be a hard hitting run style type of game but the line has now dropped to 4.5 on our book.  We couldn’t resist putting this game on our first looks list because how else do you explain the line 7 even though money is clearly coming in on MSU.  

MSU is currently ranked 16th in the nation when it comes to their passing yardage, but this is mainly due to them being behind in their matchup vs Rutgers, and because of their inability to run the ball effectively thus far this season.  MSU is averaging 88 rushing yards per game this season so far. MSU pulled out the win vs Michigan last week, but Rocky Lombardi wasn’t accurate with the ball in this game or against Rutgers the week before.  Sure he put up over 300 yards rushing with three TD’s and no picks, but 53% passing completion rate simply won't cut it here on the road against Iowa. 

With or without Smith-Marsette (WR), Iowa should be able to take it to the MSU secondary who have allowed 470 passing yards in their first couple of games. Iowa is averaging about 50 more ypg on the ground and gets to play on their home field off back to back disappointments.  It’s not going to be pretty, but we see Iowa pulling off a 27-17 type of victory today. With MSU coming off such a huge high last week, we do not see them going on the road this week and putting up more than 14 to 20 points against Iowa.  Remember, Iowa was just -3 to Purdue and -1 to NW, and today, the spread is MUCH HIGHER than both those games. We believe it's for a reason, take Iowa to cover ATS today.  Good luck!

Michigan -3.5 -120 <1 unit>

Michigan just got handed their first loss by losing to little brother MSU 27-24 as huge 20+ favorites.  Indiana is off to one of their best starts in the last 30 years after beating Penn St. in OT to start the season, and after taking it to a traditionally poor Rutgers team.  Let’s break this down.

Michigan came up short against MSU due to their inability to make any big plays.  Harbaugh hasn’t had much success against OSU, Penn St., Wisconsin, or MSU in his 6 years as the head coach, but he has had some good success over the rest of the BIG 10 year to date. Michigan is averaging 200+ ypg on the ground with a fairly balanced passing game to go in stride with their style of play.  Indiana on the other hand is still too hard to gauge in our opinion.  Sure Indiana snuck by past Penn St., and took it to Rutgers, but we think the 6 turnovers they have come up with thus far isn't going to be the same type of game vs Michigan.  We don’t see a 3 turnover game taking place for Michigan after losing to MSU on the road last week. Even then, they had 0 turnovers in that game. Even with setting up big plays and taking turnovers away from their opponents, Indiana has let up 28 ppg. 

Some numbers appear very deceiving on the Indiana side.  Indiana is averaging 36.5 ppg, but they are only averaging 204 yards passing through the air per game and a below average 75 yards rushing on the ground.  This tells us that the turnovers that we mentioned above have been what has inflated their scoring numbers.  Did we forget to mention that Indiana is ranked #13 in the nation now?  That seems a little suspect considering they have only played two games against opponents with a 1-3 record, and are now 3-4 point home dogs.

Indiana doesn’t perform well as a home dog in their last 12 games going 2-9-1 and do not typically play well against Michigan.  In fact, the last time Indiana beat Michigan was over 33 years ago on October 24, 1987.  This spread is too low, and we love taking Michigan today. GOOD LUCK BOOM NATION!

V-Tech -16 -110 <1 unit>

Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, LIBERTY! Wait, that’s a commercial.  Who the hell is Liberty? Liberty has started their season 6-0.  Are they for real?  They might be, but the reality is that this V-Tech team will be the toughest team they will have faced all season..  Liberty is the #25 team in the nation now after being unranked as of last week.  Liberty is now ranked in the top 25, have started the season 6-0, and the books set this line at 17.  WTF?  What do the bookmakers know that we don't?

For starters, Liberty is coming off a bye week, while V-Tech is entering this coming off a shootout style win against Louisville.  It is pretty well known at this point that V-Tech is a much stronger team at home than on the road. V-Tech’s defense has allowed 30.5 ppg this season; this alone would imply that V-Tech would need to put up 45+ to cover ATS right?  Well the TOTAL of 67.5 in conjunction with the spread sure does imply that this game has some points scored.  We are talking about a 42-27 type of game.  V-Tech has some speed on their defense with good defensive back play from Chamari Conner, and a super fast Defensive Lineman named Justus Reed who already has 14 tackles and 4.5 sacks this season.  Shifting over to quickly address the high octane offense V-Tech possesses; they flat out can run the ball better than most, and their 37.7 ppg is due in part to their run game. Khalil Herbert is a senior RB that currently ranks 4th in the nation in rushing. 

Liberty’s offense has been on fire, this is a pun on the fact that they are the Liberty Flames ??.  Sure they have won their shootouts but they still let a team like Southern Miss put up 35 on them.  Beating down an 0-7 UL Monroe is simply a game that bolsters and inflates their stats, and the two games earlier this season that they inched out include squeaking by Western Kentucky 30-24, and barely beating Florida International 36-34 doesn't say much. 

We don’t think that Liberty will be able to contain the V-Tech running game.  It’s time to put the flame out as V-Tech cruises to a 5-2 start entering their upcoming big clash against # 11 Miami. It’s time for them to handle Liberty today.  Good luck.

Oklahoma St. -14 -110 <1 unit>

We want to run a little spread analysis for you guys before breaking this one down more. Okie St. were just back to back -3.5 point favorites ATS, and did not cover either, losing public perception with a 3 point win over Iowa St. and an outright OT loss to Texas last week.  Kansas St. got exposed last week with their backup QB who we don’t believe is ANY GOOD.  This is a K-State team at 4-2 that just lost their top 25 ranking of #16 and now getting double digits vs a team who is pissed off.  It’s also worth mentioning that the same WV team that demolished K-State last week got punched in the mouth by Oklahoma St. a couple of weeks ago by a score of 27-13.

To start, Oklahoma St. beat K-State last year 26-13 and the spread this year falls right in between this number yet again.  Oklahoma St. did lose to Texas last week, and we were on Texas because the line seemed way off.  The reality is though, Oklahoma St. out-played Texas last week, but didn’t make the big plays that mattered to secure the win.  Okie St. actually out paced Texas with 530 yards compared to 287.  It’s pretty crazy to look at this yardage total and the fact that Okie St. had 32 first downs compared to the 17 that Texas came away with the win.  Oklahoma St. has 21 sacks on the season so far which smells like big trouble for a K-State backup QB that hasn’t impressed anyone.   K-State got smashed by a strong WV defense that we compare very closely to that of Okie St.  K-State hasn’t been able to get their ground game going and backup QB Will Howard simply put is turning the ball over too much while completing only 55% of his passes. 

Oklahoma St. is one of the better teams in the BIG 12, and K-State is washing out as the season continues.  K-State is going to get lit up today.  The total of 48 does appear low to lay 14 points but we don’t see K-State scoring more than 13 to 17 points in this game.  Even if K-State gets to the 17 point mark, it’s hard for us to see Okie St. not getting into the 30’s.  This line is actually pretty spot on, but none-the-less we are taking Okie St. -14 today.  Good Luck.

Clemson -5 -110 <1 unit>

HUGEEE game here boys. #1 vs #4, and Vegas opened this line up Clemson -6. We are seeing many books at -5.5 now, and at first look, we were like WOW. 6 points with a back up QB and they almost lost to BC last week? Notre Dame has handled every team they have played except for the close one with Louisville. This defense is LOADED and ESPN has been hyping Notre Dame’s defense all week. This line stood out. Think if Lawrence was playing? Would this line be -9? Thats a lot of respect...

Last week, BC vs Clemson’s box score is shaded. BC had 7 off a 97 yard fumble return. Clemson outgained BC in all categories. Long story short, Clemson held BC to 0 points in the 2H and scored 21 points. Without that return TD, it would have been 34-21, but Clemson’s QB also started out slow in the 1H and got going in the 2H. QB Uiagalelei was recruited to Clemson for a reason, hes no slouch. He played well last week and ND has not been tested. Their best QB they have faced this year was Cunningham for Louisville and they only won 12-7 as 16 point favs.

Notre Dame’s stats are inflated and they usually are. When they step up in class, they usually let these games down. Last year, when ND played Michigan, they got trounced 45-14. The crazy part here is, when CLemson and ND play each other the last 4 times, Clemson is 4-1 but 3 of those 4 games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Now you get a BACK UP QB starting and they opened this line at 6? Anyone can easily google the most recent games and see that these games have been close and less than 6. That STINKS!

Brian Kelly is 0-7 against top 5 AP teams and is 0-4 at home vs TOP 5 AP teams. We will take the stinky line here that gives ND too many points based on recency bias, recent head to head match up scores, and the back up QB laying this much to a #4 seed. Lets go! Good luck! 

Tennessee -2 -110 <1 unit>

The fact that Arkansas is a dog in this position raised our eyebrows. They have been playing tough all year, losing last week by 11 to ranked Texas A&M, losing to ranked Auburn by 2 a few weeks ago, and beating ranked Miss St outright as 17 point dogs. Why isn't Arkansas laying -3 here today? This one smells. Also, this is a night game and currently, they are home public dogs...that's never a good sign. In addition, they are 5-0 ATS this year, and Vegas threw out a home public dog number, watch out guys let's not get trapped! 

Let's talk about Tennessee. They started 2-0 and then dropped the last 3. They played Alabama and Georgia and got trounced, and then lost to Kentucky in a sandwich spot in between Alabama and Georgia. The QB Guarantano’s numbers are not bad considering who they have played, completing 62%, 914 yards, 6 TDs and 3 picks. He protects the ball which is good vs Arkansas who has 10 picks in 5 games. Their best chance to win this game is by running the shit out of the ball as Arkansas is 12th in the SEC giving up 178 rush yards per game. Here is the thing, Tennessee has an amazing O Line that received a lot of hype before the season has started but hasn't lived up to expectations. We believe this is the game they shine vs a bad rush defense.

Tennessee appears to have a shaded defensive stat line, remember who they played so far (Georgia/Alabama). Franks will appear to have a field day with this defense but here is the thing, the over under is not in the 60s. Its sitting at 54, which is more of a pro style number. Tennessee is only giving up 3.7 yards per carry so this will be all Franks today. What we really like is the fact that Tennessee is off a bye with 2 weeks to prepare for Arkansas, and this is the game they really need after dropping 3. 

Many are talking about Arkansas being the most improved team in the SEC and having been in many close games. However, this line is asking for Arkansas money and everyone forgot that just earlier last month, Tennessee was ranked before those 3 brutal games in a row. Tennessee has a lot of talent on this team which will be showcased tonight. Lets go! Good luck!