NCAAF 11/19

Question

3 for today; 1-0 last week with BC over NC State

Oregon State +1 v Washington - Sagarin shows a 15 pt neutral difference between Oregon State and Washington - 3 for HFA = 12 yet the line is 1

Texas -7.5 v Kansas State - even on Sagarin yet K State gets more than a TD in Texas final home game of the year? 4 point differential. A little below what I like but I like the spot and like Texas off a loss. Also it seems a bit ridiculous for a ranked team to be getting 7.5 points against an unranked opponent.

NC State +7.5 v Clemson - Sagarin has Clemson -15, less 3 for HFA and you have a 5 point differential. Clemson is at the Cocks next week so this is a possible look ahead spot for them

NC State and Texas are a bit below the threshold of Sagarin v Vegas line difference I like but I like the situational spots for them so I added, Oregon State fits the bill perfectly

gl all

you can make the case for Washington State using this methodology as well. I chose to leave it off as there's nothing added like with Texas and NC State

KOAJ · Answer

3 for today; 1-0 last week with BC over NC State

Oregon State +1 v Washington - Sagarin shows a 15 pt neutral difference between Oregon State and Washington - 3 for HFA = 12 yet the line is 1

Texas -7.5 v Kansas State - even on Sagarin yet K State gets more than a TD in Texas final home game of the year? 4 point differential. A little below what I like but I like the spot and like Texas off a loss. Also it seems a bit ridiculous for a ranked team to be getting 7.5 points against an unranked opponent.

NC State +7.5 v Clemson - Sagarin has Clemson -15, less 3 for HFA and you have a 5 point differential. Clemson is at the Cocks next week so this is a possible look ahead spot for them

NC State and Texas are a bit below the threshold of Sagarin v Vegas line difference I like but I like the situational spots for them so I added, Oregon State fits the bill perfectly

gl all

you can make the case for Washington State using this methodology as well. I chose to leave it off as there's nothing added like with Texas and NC State

nmcnabb · Answer

With you on Oregon St KOAJ -- gl.

bigpappap · Answer

Price out a factor on the UW line?  Montana gets his first start on the road....didn&#x27;t look so hot last week....just need him to control the game...It will be interesting!

ksuwins · Answer

Aye...the ranked team getting so many points is odd...I figured UT favored by 3-6...this line came out really high...it was like catnip and I had to go with my overachieving Cats.

KOAJ · Answer

possibly however most college football programs are factories and have good players at 2nd and 3rd stringoutside of a major superstar i dont think much of it matters (think Ryan Broyles injury)

KOAJ · Answer

tough not to...which is why i look for reasons to go the other way

KOAJ · Answer

thanks shrimp - i watched texas get shafted on about 7 straight calls last night in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. one leading directly to a TD

maybe it has a different outcome. texas still didnt play very good on offense. their qb situation is a mess

NCAAF 11/19

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