NCAAF Week 10 - Saturday - Cappers Paradise

Record 42-33 

+16.8 Units

Wake Forest -7.5 -110 <1 unit> 

Both teams are off a bye, but Wake Forest has not been playing well and need to take care of business today to keep their ranking and impress the committee. In their last 3 games, they won games sv FSU and BC by 2-3 points, and lost to Louisville in a shootout by 3. WF is the 20th scoring offense in the league right now and 5th in total offense, and NC st ranks 82nd. NC St is 0-3 on the road, losing by a margin of 17-21 points. This team is not the same as they are at home, 4-0 home and 0-3 away. They have the biggest game of their season at home next week, Clemson, how are you not looking ahead? Regardless of Hartman or Newman starting, we believe Wake will be able to drive it down the NC St defense and score. We worry about NC sts offense, we understand that Wake’s defense is not very good, ranking in the 100+ categories, but NC st is a hot mess. Their offense is nothing to worry about, in their last 3 games, they average 3 yards per carry and have no touchdowns on the ground. Wakes defense should be okay here, especially with 2 weeks to prepare. NC St will be starting a red shirt freshman, he looked good in the relief role vs BC, and also has 2 weeks to prepare, but you are asking him to go score for score vs WF. NC St may need to score 30+ to stay in this game, on the road they have only scored 27 at the most. We believe Wake can get into the high 30s here, so we will take the better offense at home off a bye over a true freshman on the road in his first start. Lets go! Good luck! 

Central Michigan +1.5 -110 <1 unit>

Central Michigan is coming off a bad loss to Buffalo as 2.5 point dogs while Northern Illinois blanked an awful Akron team 49-0.  Central Michigan knows how to run the ball and should have a lot of success against a pretty poor rush defense. This game has a bit of a revenge angle lined up for Central Michigan as well considering they lost a one possession game last season. Don't let last week fool you, Northern Illinois doesn't have the best offense and Central Michigan has not lost at home yet this year. NIU is only averaging 24 points per game, and they are even worse on the road. It is important to remember that last week NIU had their backup QB in with their starting QB out due to concussion protocol, and now he has to come back on the road against a team that's gonna be able to run efficiently and control the clock. Central Michigan has a legit run defense and should be able to put a ton of pressure on Northern Illinois returning QB (Bowwers) because NIU isn't going to be able to run on CMU. These teams are pretty opposite of each other.  NIU can defend the pass and aren't great at defending the run… it's the exact opposite scenario for Central Michigan who has this game at home and will look to establish the run and pound the rock.

NIU is 1-3 on the road which makes me us like Central Michigan even more as they are 4-0 at home.. Jonathon Ward and Kobe Lewis are going to run hard today. Borrows coming back for NIU won't matter because that dude is only completing 57% of his passes. It's worth mentioning that Central Michigan has won 4 of their last 5 vs Northern Illinois  and has covered 5 straight in this series. Take Central Michigan today for 1 unit, lets go!

Notre Dame -17 -110 <1 unit>

Virginia Tech is off a bye week after going 6 overtimes to beat UNC, and Notre Dame got embarrassed last game vs Michigan. They should bounce back strong here today. Let's look at it closer… both teams are 5-2, yet the line is 17. V-Tech may be scoring 30 points a game, but they are letting up 29 points a game so that 5-2 record is a little misleading. They have also played no ranked teams during this stretch. Notre Dame on the other hand has 2 losses, but they are to legit defensive teams that are both in the top 25. Notre Dame is averaging 35 ppg and is only letting teams score 20 on them,  this is a huge differential and is why the spread is where it is. V-Tech isn't going to score anywhere close to 37 points against Notre Dame like they did the last 3 weeks. V-Tech has a bottom of the pack passing defense and will be exploited today. Notre Dame at home knows how to put up big yards and points, especially off a lose. They took down defensive minded Virginia by 15 off their last loss. In that game, Notre dame was -10.5, but today is a whopping -17. We believe this is all for a specific reason today. V-Tech may have won 3 straight, but none of the wins have been impressive. Notre Dame has a great passing defense, but has shown some weaknesses in the run defense department, but V Tech ranks 98th in rush yards per game, so its not like they will excel. Notre Dame took the Hokies down last season by 22. This game has bounce back written all over it. This total implies V-Tech scores less than 20 points today, and we feel pretty good about Notre Dame being able to put up points into the high 30's or more. Take Notre Dame -17 today for 1 unit. Lets go!  Good Luck.

what abut clemson -45? .. best play for saturday.

Did not even look at Clemson, good luck to you sir!

FSU -3 -105 <2 units>

This rivalry game has so much epic history! Let's break down this years match up. For starters, both teams are 4-4 and basically need to win out if they want to be bowl eligible. Home vs Road performances here for both teams come in play. FSU plays much better at home vs on the road, and same with Miami. This is Miami's 4th road game, and needed a miracle 4th Q to beat Pitt. In their wins, they are being outgained and in their losses they are outgaining their opponents, pretty crazy. Last week, 58 seconds left in the game and Miami scored to win, now you go on the road playing FSU with that coach under fire right now. They are starting Hornibook and he should be able to manage this game like he did vs Louisville and NC St. FSU’s last 3 games, they had to play ranked Wake and Clemson who are explosive. Now you get a less explosive team offensively and should be a grinding disciplined game. These two teams are true rivals being that there playstyle is a mirrored opposite of one another. Miami's offense isn't great but they have demonstrated that they have top 25 ranking in the nation when it comes to their defense. FSU had their get right game last week beating up on Syracuse 35-17, and this was actually 35-3 entering the fourth before the Seminoles eased up a lil after dominating. It appears that FSU's biggest weakness is stopping teams when they get them to 3rd down situations. It helps that offensively Miami hasn't been good at converting them. The turnover Chain Should be limited today, it stays at home. FSU is Going to get out of this one with the win. Take FSU -3 for 2 Units today.

Tulane -10 -110 <1 unit> 

We have Tulane at home laying a whopping 10 points. Tulsa was getting 10 at home vs Memphis last week and was up 41-35, only to lose 42-41 and covered the spread. They gave it everything at home last week to beat Memphis, now they need to turn things around, focus and play Tulane and is getting the same amount of points? Tulsa was getting 12 points vs SMU, in a game we took Tulsa in, and they covered the spread. They were also getting 15.5-16 at ranked Cincinnati, and covered the spread. Now they are on the road again, getting 10 points, so Tulane is 2 points worse than ranked SMU and 5.5 points worse than Cincinnati? Really? Thats crazy, the 10 seems like a please bet Tulsa line to us. Tulsa has UCF at home on deck, under the lights on Friday night, do you think they are looking ahead? We sure do. 

Tulane has lost 2 in a row, this team lost by 30 to Memphis, Tulsa lost by 1 to Memphis, and Tulane is now laying 10, food for thought, the value appears to be Tulsa, why is Vegas setting that up? This game just doesn't smell right all around. Tulane has one of the best rushing offenses and will plan on keeping Tulsa off the field. The thing about this game is that Tulsa is better than what their record indicates, people keep talking about that, however at this point of the season, it doesn't matter anymore. They are 2-6, all they can do is play spoiler, and with UCF on deck Friday night, that is what they are looking forward to do. With a line like this today, we feel that Tulsa lays an egg, why make it so easy to bet them? Take Tulane for 1 unit, let's go!

Utah St. <1 unit>

Not sure how BYU will keep up with them tonight, they beat a Boise team 2 weeks ago with Boise’s back up QB, and momentum should stall here.. BYU has some decent games when at home, but on the road they have proven they aren't talented enough offensively. BYU just beat ranked Boise st outright and went into their bye, Utah st just got EMBARRASSED by Air Force, look at the teams they played on the road, they played ranked Wake Forest, lost by 3, played LSU, played Air Force and played SDSU with a solid defense. At home, they are undefeated, BYU lost to South florida on the road for god's sake. We think this is Utah St’s game to win. It’s worth mentioning that last season Utah St. went on the road and handled BYU 45-20. Ty’son Williams is out which is a big issue for BYU.  They simply can’t run the way they need to without Williams in the game. Utah St. has a solid run defense so expect a lot of pressure put on whichever of BYU’s two backup QB’s that get the start today. We don’t see how BYU overcomes all of their injuries against this Utah St. defense.  

BYU is averaging around 23 points and is letting opponents score around 29; ironically Utah St is exactly opposite holding teams to around 24 while scoring a little over 29 ppg. We acknowledge that BYU’s defensive strength is against the pass, but injuries are going to be felt today.  We are taking Utah St. -3 for a unit today. Good luck.

Boise St -16 -110 <2 units> 

We have a lot of people taking San Jose st tonight, they have looked good this year. They went to Army and beat them by 5 as 10 point dogs, and they have Hawaii next week, thats always a fun travel and game for those kids. This year, they have only lost by more than 16 twice, to Tulsa and Air Force. Out of every team they have played, you can say the best defense they have played was SDSU and Air Force. When they played Air Force, they were losing 41-10, then Air Force let up and gave them 14 points in the last 3 minutes of the game. We dont see Boise’s defense doing that after losing outright to BYU. When they played SDSU, they were down 27-10,and scored in the last 5 min of the game to make it 27-17, and SDSU’s offense is not as good as Boises. Everything we look at in our eyes points to Boise tonight. Boise has two weeks to prepare for this game. Playing in BYU is always tough, now they have a get right game and is looking to trounce every team on the rest of their schedule. Bachmeier was not playing in the game vs BYU, he should be back for tonights game ready to roll. San Jose St ranks 106 in FBS in total defense, and their run defense ranks 125th in the country. Boise st should be able to do whatever they want on offense today. Josh Love has looked great and is 2nd in the conference in passing offense, but he is going up against the 2nd ranked pass defense in the conference only giving up 6.5 yards per attempt. Curtiz Weaver should get to Love today, he ranks 3rd in the nation with 9.5 sacks. San Jose sts O Line has done real well, but hasnt seen a player like this just yet. San Jose st will have trouble tonight and we should see them regress, already exceeded expectations for the year. We should see a blow out tonight, lets go! Good luck!