ND Backers Unite

ND (+3)

Disclaimer: I'm a huge ND fan.

I see these two teams matched up pretty even. Most of the board seems to be on FSU and I can understand that. The prevailing theme is that FSU is much bigger and faster than ND. For the most part, this is probably true. I think this is especially true in the ND defensive backfield where Senior CB Gary Gray is a regular target for being bullied. He is certainly a weak link and we'll probably see FSU go at him early and often.

I think ND's defense front 7 should do well in this game. Against BCS opponents, ND is giving up 3.55 yards per attempt on the ground. FSU comes in averaging 3.36 YPC against BCS foes. Against the 4 good defenses they have faced they were held to 27,29,63, and 30 yards rushing. FSU is coming into the bowl game with an offensive line that is in constant flux, and will reportedly start 3 true Frehman up front. Watch #19 Aaron Lynch for ND. He's an 18 year old D End with unbelievable size and brute strength. Halfway thru the year, and Eagles scout said he would be a top 10 pick if he was elgible for the draft.

There's no question ND loses if "turnover" Tommy Rees plays at his worst, which is about 50% of the time. Undersized with a weak arm, it is frustrating to see him start at QB week in and week out. He fumbles atleast twice a game and his 19-12 TD/INT ratio is decieving as Micheal Floyd makes up for some of Rees' mistakes. Sophmore Andrew Hendrix is expected to get substantial playing time tonight, and I fully expect Kelly to keep Rees on a short leash and yank him at the first sign of him falling apart.

When I put all the stats into the Rolleater, I was suprised to see ND's YPC (my main indicator) advantage. I have ND being able to run the ball better than FSU in this matchup.  ADVANTAGE  ND.

My passing eff. rating favors FSU in a big way. I have a 15.85 point advantage on FSU which doesn't mean much to you guys, but I will say the only other bowl with a similar number was NCSU (+14.42) and they had a field day in the first half against Louisville. Look for FSU to air it out a bunch. ADVANTGE  FSU.

Special Teams will favor FSU. The punting game could be huge as ND comes in at 120th in Punt Returns and the Noles enter the game #1 in Net Punting. I expect a game with sluggish offense, and if it becomes a battle of punting and field position this will lean heavily to FSU. The Noles also have 29 touchback's on on 77 kick. I haven't looked, but that is certainly close to best in the nation. This coupled with "Turnover" Tommy giving the ball away a couple times could turn this into an ugly game for ND. ADVANTAGE  FSU.

ND comes in 116th in TO MGN. FSU comes in 111th in sacks allowed (see Aaron Lynch above).

In ND's last outing they were held to 57 yds rushing on 31 attempt's(very bad), and were outgained 309-429 against Stanford.

In FSU's last outing they were held to 30 yds rushing on 46 attempt's(fucking crazy), and were outgained 184-95 in a game against Florida that was reminiscent of the 1940's. Against the Gators, 41 of FSU's 59 plays were for 2 yards or less.

Rolleater Line  FSU  (-.535)

Good run so far kap.

Gotta go against you on this one though.

Been looking at this one all day...Im on N. Dame +3 and the UNDER, what do you think about the total?

My opinion normally VEGAS let you get only one side sharp, other square. Looks at all those over being hitting along w/dog.

That said I am riding with ND but, hesitate on the under.  GL

Irish gotta be feeling bad about now. Clearly dominant on D and no offense. Rees with the redzone pic, and misses Floyd for an open 6.

Kelly should go if he let's this fuck play anymore tonight.

Yea, but ND has left 2 TD's off the board. In my opinion, FSU has taken ND's best shot and is still standing. FSU wins 10-7.

 Your UNDER should be perfectly safe in this shit fest.

Good call kap.

FSU now sitting at 9 yards rushing.

Well, I gotta say that is my toughest loss of the season. I take a little refuge outta the fact I kept it at a 1% wager. I can't figure out why ND stopped sending pressure. It drove me fucking NUTS !  The Noles were hopeless in the first half on offense because of the pressure and sacks. I mentioned in my write up that G Gray was the weak link and they he was protected in the first half because of the blitz. In the second half, ND had 2 plays where they sent more than the four down linemen. And Gray got fuckin destroyed by a damn Freshman. Why quit blitzing?

Kelly really thought the 14 was gonna be enough.

Whatever.....fuck it.