Week 2 is always my favorite week for betting in football due to the over-reaction that comes with a one week sample size. This season I especially like it as the games I had my eye on for this week should be at the top of the list as far as over reacting public sentiment is concerned.
Nebraska -4 - No one understands what this rivalry used to mean more than Scott Frost. He lived it at the height of the hatred between the two schools. Last year, CU came in to Lincoln and cheap-shotted Martinez, derailing his season, and then ended up leaving with the W as well. Since Nebraska's first game was cancelled last season, I believe that the loss to CU in Nebraska's real game one ended up sucking the wind out of the Huskers' sails right from the get go. Fast forward to this season, and I got what I wanted out of both of these teams last week. CU looked OK against little brother, and since the game started late, the large majority of the country only saw the box score. A 52 point performance looks awfully outstanding in the paper. CU benefitted greatly from the officiating, and essentially stole a TD when the refs didn't blow the whistle on a Kinsey running play, even thought they were heard telling the players to let up. Ball comes out after the fact, and CU ends up with the ball deep in CSU territory. I absolutely under-estimated CSU, as I think they are better than their 3-9 record this season will indicate, but they were holding their own against CU for three quarters. CSU gained almost 500 yards on offense, and appeared to control the line of scrimmage. Montez to me, seems like he is regressing. He missed a fair amount of open receivers, and CU looks like they are content to give the ball to Fontenot as much as possible to control the clock.
I am a firm believer that Nebraska was sand bagging last weekend. They had a terrible week of practice leading up to the game, indicating to me that they had no interest in South Alabama. Now, I believe the Buffs firmly have Nebraska's attention. Martinez's performance last week was atrocious, and if he repeats it, I lose easily. The fact that the Buffs knocked him out last season should be motivation for him, but add in the fact that he looked like absolute dog crap last week, and we have a recipe for a complete 180 in week 2. Huskers should be able to establish the run, and give Martinez enough protection to make some throws. On defense, they seem to be in the right place at the right time, so if they pull off the turnover edge on the road, I think they get the cover. Too much motivation on the Nebraska side, most importantly, the coach and QB.
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