need adivce, potential 5 unit play ($2200 AUD)

I have been using my own model for NFL and College for 2 years now, i am hitting at about 53% in NFL on spreads, and about 62% in College (This is generally buying .5 to 1 point). College seems to be much easier and i often find big differences in my lines compared to Vegas hence my much bigger ROI compared to nfl.

Now;

Troy vs Texas State.

My line has Troy by 5.2 points (rounded 5) and with HFA,, 7 points.. wtf am i missing? is their a key QB out etc? They are underdogs of 13 points..

Many FPI/Power index ratings sites matchup simulations also has Texas state wining by 7, with a median of 6.

I have also tested my model against previous troy games and got them all spot on, except for their loss to Memphis.

I have also tested my model on some upsets, one being Wyoming over Airforce last week, my model had Airfoce as 1.8 points fav (rounded to 2) and they won outright being a dog of 4.5 points

Would love any insight

cheers boys! an Bolta on your wagers this weekend :)

******sorry. i meant to say Texas state by 5.2 (rounded 5) points.. and with Troy HFA, texas state by 3. Yet Troy is a 13 points underdog??

Many FPI websites have the game simulation has Texas State winning by 7, with a median of 6. Leading me to think Troy is a strong play, just would love some insight i may be missing? Considering i am in Australia and probably don't have some inside scoop you guys might have access to

I think Texas state wins this by 10 plus points…  Troy’s QB has only thrown for like 560 yards   I don’t see anyway Troy wins this game.  I have Texas state +400 to win their conference.  They are supposed to battle it out with App State for the conference championship.  I watched that game against UTSA because I had the over and it was a boat race..  TX State can score quick..   I don’t know if any injuries I looked and could find any.  Let me know what you do  interesting   Will definitely be watching this game 

@The007

 appreciate the info 007! im going to do some more digging and see what i can find!

@The007

 not sure if it makes a difference but see my second comment, i made a typo. Texas State by 5 according to my model. With Troy HFA, Texas St wins by 3
so the line seems juicy.. definitely do not think they win outright.

I would be very cautious playing that big on a weeknight.  There is a chance they really could be fragile right now after talks of making a playoff run is now over with 2 losses. Or they could go the other way and go nuts. Troy sucks but not sure what you will get with Texas st. 

yeah dont bet 2200 on these two teams. maybe 2200 Zimbabwe dollars but not real money. troy is such a mess and their starting qb might miss the game. 

@steponaduck

 you are a legend stepano! just checked the injury repot and read starting OL, and Qb is indeed injured and appears he will be missing the game, so its a no bet from me !!