I was wondering if betting "when the line moves against (18.5 down 16.5)" is wrong. Someone told me it is 101 betting never bet when the line moves against.
My theory is if the spread moves against the team the team is favored more with the spread.
I have a 57% win statistic betting when the line moves against. Doesn't make sense to me the other way.
What is your experience when the line moves against you?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I was wondering if betting "when the line moves against (18.5 down 16.5)" is wrong. Someone told me it is 101 betting never bet when the line moves against.
My theory is if the spread moves against the team the team is favored more with the spread.
I have a 57% win statistic betting when the line moves against. Doesn't make sense to me the other way.
What is your experience when the line moves against you?
over/under on the oklahoma/kansas state game went from 59 to 54 with everyone hammering the over, and the score is 31-30 with 10 minutes left in the 4th
so, while it may seem like the way to go, it's not "always" right
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over/under on the oklahoma/kansas state game went from 59 to 54 with everyone hammering the over, and the score is 31-30 with 10 minutes left in the 4th
so, while it may seem like the way to go, it's not "always" right
I was wondering if betting "when the line moves against (18.5 down 16.5)" is wrong. Someone told me it is 101 betting never bet when the line moves against.
My theory is if the spread moves against the team the team is favored more with the spread.
I have a 57% win statistic betting when the line moves against. Doesn't make sense to me the other way.
What is your experience when the line moves against you?
Slight positive effect to bet when the line moves against your bet, as when you like X which opens at 4 point favorite and it moves over time to a 5 1/2 point favorite and you then bet X.
The public doesn't make the line move as much as smart (big) money does, so when the public piles on a team, but the line doesn't move, that means that smart money is going the opposite way, and smart money has a slightly better win percentage than the public.
So going against the public may or may not mean going against smart money.
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Quote Originally Posted by lee_bowen:
I was wondering if betting "when the line moves against (18.5 down 16.5)" is wrong. Someone told me it is 101 betting never bet when the line moves against.
My theory is if the spread moves against the team the team is favored more with the spread.
I have a 57% win statistic betting when the line moves against. Doesn't make sense to me the other way.
What is your experience when the line moves against you?
Slight positive effect to bet when the line moves against your bet, as when you like X which opens at 4 point favorite and it moves over time to a 5 1/2 point favorite and you then bet X.
The public doesn't make the line move as much as smart (big) money does, so when the public piles on a team, but the line doesn't move, that means that smart money is going the opposite way, and smart money has a slightly better win percentage than the public.
So going against the public may or may not mean going against smart money.
Slight positive effect to bet when the line moves against your bet, as when you like X which opens at 4 point favorite and it moves over time to a 5 1/2 point favorite and you then bet X.
The public doesn't make the line move as much as smart (big) money does, so when the public piles on a team, but the line doesn't move, that means that smart money is going the opposite way, and smart money has a slightly better win percentage than the public.
So going against the public may or may not mean going against smart money.
like i said, this is the thought behind it, but in my example, the public was pounding the over and "smart money" still pushed the line down from 59 to 54 (signifying smart money was on the under), and the "public" still won the bet
so it's not always the case, but of course it's probably historically favorable to be on the side of the smart money
just like you said, it's a slight positive when the line moves "against" your bet. i think we agree that its definitely a plus, but definitely not a deciding factor
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Quote Originally Posted by Tinklebell:
Slight positive effect to bet when the line moves against your bet, as when you like X which opens at 4 point favorite and it moves over time to a 5 1/2 point favorite and you then bet X.
The public doesn't make the line move as much as smart (big) money does, so when the public piles on a team, but the line doesn't move, that means that smart money is going the opposite way, and smart money has a slightly better win percentage than the public.
So going against the public may or may not mean going against smart money.
like i said, this is the thought behind it, but in my example, the public was pounding the over and "smart money" still pushed the line down from 59 to 54 (signifying smart money was on the under), and the "public" still won the bet
so it's not always the case, but of course it's probably historically favorable to be on the side of the smart money
just like you said, it's a slight positive when the line moves "against" your bet. i think we agree that its definitely a plus, but definitely not a deciding factor
I've never really really been too keen on the unwritten rules/knowledge of line movements/etc and have always wondered what meant what and when to stay away.
Then again im fairly new to betting anything other than parlays.
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Curious on this as well.
I've never really really been too keen on the unwritten rules/knowledge of line movements/etc and have always wondered what meant what and when to stay away.
Then again im fairly new to betting anything other than parlays.
I've never really really been too keen on the unwritten rules/knowledge of line movements/etc and have always wondered what meant what and when to stay away.
Then again im fairly new to betting anything other than parlays.
They have reverse betting. Computers monitor when a betting line is adjusted opposite of the supposed proper adjustment. This alone pays 67 percent so they say. But the Sportsbooks are keen to this and can play it in their favor of course.
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Quote Originally Posted by WallyDynamite:
Curious on this as well.
I've never really really been too keen on the unwritten rules/knowledge of line movements/etc and have always wondered what meant what and when to stay away.
Then again im fairly new to betting anything other than parlays.
They have reverse betting. Computers monitor when a betting line is adjusted opposite of the supposed proper adjustment. This alone pays 67 percent so they say. But the Sportsbooks are keen to this and can play it in their favor of course.
Late money in terms of taking the late lines instead of laying it on the early ones?
If thats the case I should just pick up some parlay cards from my bookie monday night/tues morning and then check which lines have moved the most Sat morning before I turn them in and bet those. That way Im guaranteed to get the better (early) line.
Or am I misunderstanding?
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Quote Originally Posted by mikebdb:
next time listen to me
Late money in terms of taking the late lines instead of laying it on the early ones?
If thats the case I should just pick up some parlay cards from my bookie monday night/tues morning and then check which lines have moved the most Sat morning before I turn them in and bet those. That way Im guaranteed to get the better (early) line.
Slight positive effect
to bet when the line moves against your bet, as when you like X which
opens at 4 point favorite and it moves over time to a 5 1/2 point
favorite and you then bet X.
The public doesn't make the line
move as much as smart (big) money does, so when the public piles on a
team, but the line doesn't move, that means that smart money is going
the opposite way, and smart money has a slightly better win percentage
than the public.
So going against the public may or may not mean going against smart money.
Quote Originally Posted by sidehustle:
like i said, this is the thought behind it, but in my example, the public was pounding the over and "smart money" still pushed the line down from 59 to 54 (signifying smart money was on the under), and the "public" still won the bet
so it's not always the case, but of course it's probably historically favorable to be on the side of the smart money
just like you said, it's a slight positive when the line moves "against" your bet. i think we agree that its definitely a plus, but definitely not a deciding factor
One example proves nothing, but in your example the line moved down even though the public was pounding the over. How did you know that the public was pounding the over while smart (big money was on the under)?
Did you have figures for a total money bet on each side, subdivided into small bet money (public) and large bet money (pro or smart)? This info is available but I don't know where.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tinklebell:
Slight positive effect
to bet when the line moves against your bet, as when you like X which
opens at 4 point favorite and it moves over time to a 5 1/2 point
favorite and you then bet X.
The public doesn't make the line
move as much as smart (big) money does, so when the public piles on a
team, but the line doesn't move, that means that smart money is going
the opposite way, and smart money has a slightly better win percentage
than the public.
So going against the public may or may not mean going against smart money.
Quote Originally Posted by sidehustle:
like i said, this is the thought behind it, but in my example, the public was pounding the over and "smart money" still pushed the line down from 59 to 54 (signifying smart money was on the under), and the "public" still won the bet
so it's not always the case, but of course it's probably historically favorable to be on the side of the smart money
just like you said, it's a slight positive when the line moves "against" your bet. i think we agree that its definitely a plus, but definitely not a deciding factor
One example proves nothing, but in your example the line moved down even though the public was pounding the over. How did you know that the public was pounding the over while smart (big money was on the under)?
Did you have figures for a total money bet on each side, subdivided into small bet money (public) and large bet money (pro or smart)? This info is available but I don't know where.
those parley cards the lines can be way off..they are no halfs..ties lose....i use the daily news in new york..sat paper..also wait till the last few min to see line movements
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those parley cards the lines can be way off..they are no halfs..ties lose....i use the daily news in new york..sat paper..also wait till the last few min to see line movements
Don't make your head spin thinking about that. When the line moves down, Vegas wants more money on the favorites. When the line moves up, Vegas wants more money on the dog. The critical question is whether the public is causing the line movement, or if Vegas is moving the line because of sharp play. Some people like betting unfavorable line movements because they think it's the sharp play. Some people like betting favorable line movements because they feel they are getting value. I wouldn't use either method as a primary strategy. Knowing why a line moves is more important than knowing how a line moves.
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Don't make your head spin thinking about that. When the line moves down, Vegas wants more money on the favorites. When the line moves up, Vegas wants more money on the dog. The critical question is whether the public is causing the line movement, or if Vegas is moving the line because of sharp play. Some people like betting unfavorable line movements because they think it's the sharp play. Some people like betting favorable line movements because they feel they are getting value. I wouldn't use either method as a primary strategy. Knowing why a line moves is more important than knowing how a line moves.
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