This is actually my only play of the day. I have both a Michigan and Texas future so I hope that's the teams to advance and I do think that will be the outcome, but one of these is going to be a 4 unit play, my 3rd biggest of the bowl season. I hit both my 5 unit plays (South Florida and South Alabama) which was great because I went a miserable 12-17 on my other plays which were all 1 or 2 units.
This is my last year betting on college football in the regular season or minor bowls. The results aren't good enough to continue, quite frankly. I am simply much better at the NFL and even the pros can be frustrating enough. But these college kids and the coaches, man, they do some idiotic stuff. I've never had so many teams fail to get off the field on 3rd and long or 4th and long when I needed a stop, and so many teams fail to get in the end zone when it's like 1st and goal from inside the 5. Playcalling is atrocious, the amount of dumb penalties and fk ups just did my head in this year.
I mean that's gambling, and I'm sure it evens out over time (you tend to forget all the mistakes and fluky shiz that went your way while the ones that made you lose or sweat more than you should have needed to are burned into your brain)
But beyond that, the bowls are ruined. It's impossible to predict what teams will look like. If you want a strategy I'd say bet on whatever team has all these big name opt outs and the line moves because of it. Those teams still showed up to play more often than not.
Another strategy could be bet ON any of the egregiously big favs. South Alabama -17 was an easy cover as was UGA -20.5.
Will Oregon continue this trend? I think they will but that isn't the play, I'm going to just observe to see if this angle (favs of 17ish or more) can go 3-0 to use next year (I like it because there's not many spots and there is simply too many bowls betting on all them is stupid)