Non-Conference games

The reason is that with few exceptions most teams are focused on all their conf games.

But if you can find a team that is not focused for whatever reason then they can lose to a much worse team.

Here are a few games to describe what I am talking about

1)  Duke hosting Navy - Navy is 3-1 on the year, so they aren't thinking about missing out on a Bowl.  Duke is depserate to go to a Bowl.  Sitting at 3-2, this game is almost a must-win for their bowl hopes.  Duke has had two weeks to prepare coming off a bye.  Navy is still celebrating last week's win.

2)  Army hosting EMU - Army has a 13 game schedule so they need to make it to 7-6 and they are 2-5 right now.  The second half schedule is much easier and they have an outside shot at winning the 5 games if they beat EMU.  EMU is 1-4, While they lost to 4 good teams, they schedule doesn't get any easier (Ohio, BG, TOledo, No Il).   Even if EMU is 6-6 or 7-5, they probably won't get a Bowl invite.  EMU is now focused on getting a conf win, and beating WMU and CMU,

3)  G Tech at BYU - GTech is not thinking about missing a Bowl Game.  GTech 2-2 in conference with 3 winnable conf games plus Clemson left.  2 losses in the ACC coastal gives you a chance.  BYU is not an easy offense to prepare for.  BYU will be focused on an ACC team coming to Utah, which doesn't happen often

4)  Idaho at Ark St - Idaho has been horrible on the road.  They play at Ark St, then have a bye, then at Ole Miss.  I think Idaho might "already be on the bye" mentally.  Ark St should be happy to have an easy opponent in front of their fans.  Ark St has played much better at home than the road.  

5)  Bowling Green at Miss St - Bowling Green is 5-1 but they got routed at Indiana.  BG has a bye week next week.  BG is probably focused to beat an SEC team, and Toledo who they play in 2 weeks is not a rival, but they did not show up at Indy.  Miss St needs this win for their bowl hopes, but they will be extremely overconfident after beating Troy so bad.  Miss St has a Thursday primetime game in 12 days they may be looking ahead to.  I could probably talk myself into BG, but I'm not sure on this one.

If anyone disagrees with anything, I welcome any criticisms.  

The emotional state of the team is where I think the value lies.  Had Miss St beat LSU I would've even consider the BG game.  However, LSU steam rolled Miss St, so it's not as if they have they are still shotngunning beers at the local Frat house off a big win.  

Miss St lost to Auburn & had LSU on deck and wiped the floor with Troy.  Now, they lose to LSU, play BG and have Kentucky on deck.  

Again, when a team suffers a deflating loss, I think the players & staff know its time "to get back to work" instead of basking in the glory of a huge win.  

I think Miss St is too powerful on both sides of the ball for BG to walk in to Starkville, at night, and keep this game close.  Miss St needs a win at home after last week.  I'm against the MAC school in this one.