Full disclosure: ND Alum and diehard here, also a degenerate like the rest of you weirdos reading a gambling message board. Here is my assessment.
First inkling for most is going to be to dismiss ND as a fraud since they've been murdered in so many big games going back to the start of the BCS era. I cannot blame you for that, I have some of that instinct as well. However, this ND team is undoubtedly built different and the most athletic team since the Lou Holtz years. They have NFL talent all over the back end of their defense and a likely Heisman front runner in 2025 in RB Jeremiyah Love.
What is never discussed on ESPN is just how injury ravaged this ND defense is. They are now without 4 starters out of 11 from opening day, including two 1st/2nd round picks and team captains in All-American corner Benjamin Morrison and stud D-Tackle Rylie Mills. They are down 9 guys from their two deep on defense to start the year. That's a massive problem. I'd put the whole of ND's starters on both sides up there against anyone outside of Ohio State, but their depth is being tested in a big, big way and at some point it's going to break. ND does not have 3 deep five stars like OSU and Georgia.
ND is now incredibly thin on the D line and will have a very hard time withstanding four quarters of a physical beating without Rylie Mills. Having said that, they have ELITE linebackers and an ELITE secondary even without Morrison, so they'll no doubt load the box and make Stockton beat their corners in man, which won't be easy as they are elite. I think ND's D will mostly hold up and keep Georgia somewhat in check.
Where I am most concerned is Notre Dame's ability to move the ball, like at all. They have two elite backs for sure but they could have Walter Payton and Barry Sanders back there and it won't matter if ND's O-Line is getting owned by GA's front all day. That is very possible if not likely. This game will come down to whether Riley Leonard can throw the ball consistently. Notre Dame does not have elite WR's. In fact, if you watched the Rose Bowl, you'd think Ohio State's receivers are playing a different sport compared to the guys at ND.
It sounds like Georgia is in a similar situation, so this has the makings of a 17-14 type of snooze fest. I'm confident in saying that if this game ends up in a blowout, it will be a Georgia blowout. Notre Dame is going to win ugly and close, if they are able to win. I think ND's D, even with the injuries, can prevent that blowout, but it's possible.
My heart says ND finds a way, but I think the injuries that continue to pile up will end up being too much and my head says if I absolutely had to bet this, I'd be taking Georgia. I wouldn't be overwhelmingly confident no matter what side I was on.
My last comment is that general thought that Kirby Smart is a huge edge for Georgia is very overblown. ND has two of the best 3-5 coordinators in the nation in Mike Denbrock (O coordinator) and Al Golden (D coordinator). Georgia clearly has elite coaches, up there with anyone, but Notre Dame is not looking at a huge coaching mismatch here.
Good luck to those who play this, should be a great game.
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