Army (-6', down from -8') vs Navy - There may be some value in this line after the Black Knights 35-14 thumping of Tulane last week, but the line drop will keep me away from the side. The dog is on a 7-3 ATS run, but how healthy is Navy QB Blake Horvath? He's missed most of the last two games with a back injury, but says he's good to go for this one. The total sits at 39, and 38 is the high water mark in the previous ten meetings. But the under scares the hell out of me in this one, with both teams featuring more balance on offense than in years past.
As for the bowls, I yield to the HooTrain thread for the most part. Saturday's game between South Alabama and WMU is unappealing, with both teams having key transfer portal losses, and the status of Jaguars QB Gio Lopez uncertain. But I'll have some thoughts on the CFP first round games upcoming. BOL to all! Cheers
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Army (-6', down from -8') vs Navy - There may be some value in this line after the Black Knights 35-14 thumping of Tulane last week, but the line drop will keep me away from the side. The dog is on a 7-3 ATS run, but how healthy is Navy QB Blake Horvath? He's missed most of the last two games with a back injury, but says he's good to go for this one. The total sits at 39, and 38 is the high water mark in the previous ten meetings. But the under scares the hell out of me in this one, with both teams featuring more balance on offense than in years past.
As for the bowls, I yield to the HooTrain thread for the most part. Saturday's game between South Alabama and WMU is unappealing, with both teams having key transfer portal losses, and the status of Jaguars QB Gio Lopez uncertain. But I'll have some thoughts on the CFP first round games upcoming. BOL to all! Cheers
Boise.......I 've really liked reading your threads this season. Just dropped by to tell you that, so whenever you are doing these and think there not appreciated sometimes......you're wrong.
BOL in the playoffs..
4
Boise.......I 've really liked reading your threads this season. Just dropped by to tell you that, so whenever you are doing these and think there not appreciated sometimes......you're wrong.
Boise.......I 've really liked reading your threads this season. Just dropped by to tell you that, so whenever you are doing these and think there not appreciated sometimes......you're wrong. BOL in the playoffs..
agree here
Boise is a cool dude & he knows his info, I like his threads
Cooler & Boise
.
1
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:
Boise.......I 've really liked reading your threads this season. Just dropped by to tell you that, so whenever you are doing these and think there not appreciated sometimes......you're wrong. BOL in the playoffs..
agree here
Boise is a cool dude & he knows his info, I like his threads
Memphis (-4', up from -2) vs West Virginia - Mountaineers barely made it to a bowl at 6-6, and let Neal Brown go after six mediocre years. Rich Rodriguez is the new sheriff in town and will be working hard to keep the roster fairly intact. 11 players are either hurt or in the portal, the most notable being LB Josiah Trotter (portal). WVU went 0-6 SU and ATS vs fellow bowlers, losing each game by an average of nearly 20 points a game. It's worth noting though that those games were all against Power Four opponents, and while the Tigers are a good team, they play in a weaker G5 conference. Memphis has a potent offense, but its' only game against a Power Four opponent was a 20-12 win at hapless Florida St. Against AAC bowl teams they're just 3-2 SU, and 2-3 ATS, including 1-3 as chalk. There's value in the dog here based on how each team finished the season, and the 'Eers MAY be motivated to impress their new coach. On paper Memphis looks like the better team, but a G5 team favored over a Power Four team always makes me a little nervous. I'll be rooting for the "little guy", but not playing on it.
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Tuesday
Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas
Memphis (-4', up from -2) vs West Virginia - Mountaineers barely made it to a bowl at 6-6, and let Neal Brown go after six mediocre years. Rich Rodriguez is the new sheriff in town and will be working hard to keep the roster fairly intact. 11 players are either hurt or in the portal, the most notable being LB Josiah Trotter (portal). WVU went 0-6 SU and ATS vs fellow bowlers, losing each game by an average of nearly 20 points a game. It's worth noting though that those games were all against Power Four opponents, and while the Tigers are a good team, they play in a weaker G5 conference. Memphis has a potent offense, but its' only game against a Power Four opponent was a 20-12 win at hapless Florida St. Against AAC bowl teams they're just 3-2 SU, and 2-3 ATS, including 1-3 as chalk. There's value in the dog here based on how each team finished the season, and the 'Eers MAY be motivated to impress their new coach. On paper Memphis looks like the better team, but a G5 team favored over a Power Four team always makes me a little nervous. I'll be rooting for the "little guy", but not playing on it.
James Madison (-6') vs Western Kentucky - HC Tyson Helton sports a 4-1 record in bowl games with the Hilltoppers, but his team currently has about two dozen players in the portal. QB Caden Veltkamp is one of those, but is apparently going to play. But other than that it's anybody's guess who is playing and who isn't. One player who ISN'T likely to play is Dukes QB Alonza Barnett III, who was injured in the finale vs Marshall. Bowl experience and success definitely favors WKU, but there are too many unknowns here to make an educated wager.
LA Bowl in Inglewood, CA
California (pk, down from -2') vs UNLV - If this game was a regular season game I'd be all over the Rebels here, but a couple of things give me pause. First is the departure of HC Barry Odom, who has done a tremendous job during his two year run in Vegas. Secondly, I have to wonder about a letdown here, having to settle for this bowl after losing their shot at the CFP a week and a half ago with the loss to Boise. Still, the team is largely intact with all the key players expected to play, which says a lot! The Golden Bears finished the season with a whimper, losing to Syracuse and SMU, and barely surviving Stanford. In the 38-6 loss to the Mustangs, soph QB Fernando Mendoza didn't play due to illness, and since then has entered the transfer portal along with leading receiver Nyziah Hunter. Also, Bryan Harsin takes over as offensive coordinator, reuniting with Justin Wilcox. Both coached under Chris Peterson at Boise. Slight lean to UNLV here for now.
1
Wednesday
Boca Raton Bowl in Boca Raton FL
James Madison (-6') vs Western Kentucky - HC Tyson Helton sports a 4-1 record in bowl games with the Hilltoppers, but his team currently has about two dozen players in the portal. QB Caden Veltkamp is one of those, but is apparently going to play. But other than that it's anybody's guess who is playing and who isn't. One player who ISN'T likely to play is Dukes QB Alonza Barnett III, who was injured in the finale vs Marshall. Bowl experience and success definitely favors WKU, but there are too many unknowns here to make an educated wager.
LA Bowl in Inglewood, CA
California (pk, down from -2') vs UNLV - If this game was a regular season game I'd be all over the Rebels here, but a couple of things give me pause. First is the departure of HC Barry Odom, who has done a tremendous job during his two year run in Vegas. Secondly, I have to wonder about a letdown here, having to settle for this bowl after losing their shot at the CFP a week and a half ago with the loss to Boise. Still, the team is largely intact with all the key players expected to play, which says a lot! The Golden Bears finished the season with a whimper, losing to Syracuse and SMU, and barely surviving Stanford. In the 38-6 loss to the Mustangs, soph QB Fernando Mendoza didn't play due to illness, and since then has entered the transfer portal along with leading receiver Nyziah Hunter. Also, Bryan Harsin takes over as offensive coordinator, reuniting with Justin Wilcox. Both coached under Chris Peterson at Boise. Slight lean to UNLV here for now.
Boise.......I 've really liked reading your threads this season. Just dropped by to tell you that, so whenever you are doing these and think there not appreciated sometimes......you're wrong. BOL in the playoffs..
DITTO
0
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:
Boise.......I 've really liked reading your threads this season. Just dropped by to tell you that, so whenever you are doing these and think there not appreciated sometimes......you're wrong. BOL in the playoffs..
Wow, UNLV is now -3. Gonna have to pass on that one. But WKU +7' has got my attention, mainly because of HC Tyson Helton's 4-1 bowl record, and JMU missing their starting QB. Hilltoppers have a lot of kids in the portal though. Who's playing and who isn't playing is the question. Lean WKU at this number.
Thursday
New Orleans Bowl
Georgia Southern (-6, up from -5) vs Sam Houston - Another instance where i might've jumped all over the dog if it was a regular season game. But with HC K.C. Keeler leaving for Temple, and the ensuing transfer portal chaos with the Bearkats, AND the fact that their offense has disappeared during the latter half of the season makes them unplayable in my opinion. The Eagles aren't bad. Throwing out the loss to Ole Miss, they're 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS vs G5 bowl teams. However, they're 0-2 as bowl chalk the last two years under Clay Helton.
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Wow, UNLV is now -3. Gonna have to pass on that one. But WKU +7' has got my attention, mainly because of HC Tyson Helton's 4-1 bowl record, and JMU missing their starting QB. Hilltoppers have a lot of kids in the portal though. Who's playing and who isn't playing is the question. Lean WKU at this number.
Thursday
New Orleans Bowl
Georgia Southern (-6, up from -5) vs Sam Houston - Another instance where i might've jumped all over the dog if it was a regular season game. But with HC K.C. Keeler leaving for Temple, and the ensuing transfer portal chaos with the Bearkats, AND the fact that their offense has disappeared during the latter half of the season makes them unplayable in my opinion. The Eagles aren't bad. Throwing out the loss to Ole Miss, they're 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS vs G5 bowl teams. However, they're 0-2 as bowl chalk the last two years under Clay Helton.
Ohio (-4', up from -2') vs Jacksonville St. - Battle of conference champions. Jax St. won the C-USA title with a 52-12 rout of WKU and then saw HC Rich Rodriguez leave for West Virginia. Ohio blasted Miami OH, 38-3, to win the MAC championship, and then HC Tim Albin left to coach Charlotte. Both teams will be coached by their OCs in this one, and both teams feature strong run games, AND both teams come in hot. The Gamecocks have won nine of their last ten (7-3 ATS) after a 0-3 start, while the Bobcats are on a 6-0 SU, ATS and ITS run, winning each game by at least 17 points. As for the transfer portal, Ohio's roster seems to be virtually intact, despite the coaching change, as opposed to Jax St. which suffered some losses. Hence the line movement towards Ohio U.
Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa FL
Florida (-13', up from -11') vs Tulane - Two teams headed in opposite directions. Gators finished the season strong, winning three straight, and have covered eight of their last nine games, earning Billy Napier a contract extension after he spent much of the season on the hot seat. The Green Wave were in the CFP conversation until a shocking 34-24 loss at home to Memphis, and then were routed at West Point in the AAC title game. While Tulane was able to hold on to HC Jon Sumrall, they weren't as fortunate hanging on to their QBs, with starter Darian Mensah and backup Kai Horton both hitting the portal, among others. Florida looks like the right side here, but I loathe laying double digits in bowl games.
1st round CFP
NOTRE DAME (-7, down from -7') vs Indiana - Cold temps and snow are in the forecast for this battle of one loss teams. Hoosiers HC Curt Cignetti knows a thing or two about playoff games, having been in a number of them during his time at JMU. Indiana was on cruise control for the first nine games of the season, before struggling to a 20-15 win over Michigan and being blown out at Ohio St. 38-15. The Fighting Irish are on a 10-0 SU, 9-1 ATS run, but this is by far the toughest test the Irish will have faced all year, at least since the opener at Texas A&M. The Hoosiers generally start fast and finish strong, and Cignetti's playoff experience could give them a significant advantage. I'm leaning Indiana in this one.
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Friday
Cure Bowl in Orlando FL
Ohio (-4', up from -2') vs Jacksonville St. - Battle of conference champions. Jax St. won the C-USA title with a 52-12 rout of WKU and then saw HC Rich Rodriguez leave for West Virginia. Ohio blasted Miami OH, 38-3, to win the MAC championship, and then HC Tim Albin left to coach Charlotte. Both teams will be coached by their OCs in this one, and both teams feature strong run games, AND both teams come in hot. The Gamecocks have won nine of their last ten (7-3 ATS) after a 0-3 start, while the Bobcats are on a 6-0 SU, ATS and ITS run, winning each game by at least 17 points. As for the transfer portal, Ohio's roster seems to be virtually intact, despite the coaching change, as opposed to Jax St. which suffered some losses. Hence the line movement towards Ohio U.
Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa FL
Florida (-13', up from -11') vs Tulane - Two teams headed in opposite directions. Gators finished the season strong, winning three straight, and have covered eight of their last nine games, earning Billy Napier a contract extension after he spent much of the season on the hot seat. The Green Wave were in the CFP conversation until a shocking 34-24 loss at home to Memphis, and then were routed at West Point in the AAC title game. While Tulane was able to hold on to HC Jon Sumrall, they weren't as fortunate hanging on to their QBs, with starter Darian Mensah and backup Kai Horton both hitting the portal, among others. Florida looks like the right side here, but I loathe laying double digits in bowl games.
1st round CFP
NOTRE DAME (-7, down from -7') vs Indiana - Cold temps and snow are in the forecast for this battle of one loss teams. Hoosiers HC Curt Cignetti knows a thing or two about playoff games, having been in a number of them during his time at JMU. Indiana was on cruise control for the first nine games of the season, before struggling to a 20-15 win over Michigan and being blown out at Ohio St. 38-15. The Fighting Irish are on a 10-0 SU, 9-1 ATS run, but this is by far the toughest test the Irish will have faced all year, at least since the opener at Texas A&M. The Hoosiers generally start fast and finish strong, and Cignetti's playoff experience could give them a significant advantage. I'm leaning Indiana in this one.
Done with betting for the year, but for what it's worth here are my takes on the three playoff games today.
PENN ST. (-8, down from -8') vs Smu - Seems like a big number, but with temps in the 20s and wind chill in the teens, I can't help but recall how UNLV and Tulane played at cold weather venues in their respective conference title games. Also, the Mustangs are the only team in the playoffs with a minus turnover differential, and while it's hard to handicap turnovers it seems likely that the Nittany Lions will win the turnover battle here. Feels like a 27-13 kinda game, with Penn St. pounding the rock down SMU's throat, and keeping that high powered Mustang offense on the sidelines.
TEXAS (-13', up from -11) vs Clemson - Longhorns have only lost twice, both times against Georgia. Dabo is 6-2 ATS as a postseason dog, but this isn't the same Clemson team as in years past. Texas is no guarantee though when laying doubles.
OHIO ST. (-7, down from -7') vs Tennessee - Another cold weather game, which favors the more physical team. That's not necessarily the home team Buckeyes though. We haven't seen them since they lost to Michigan as a three TD favorite. Not sure they've recovered from that. This one has all the makings of a defensive slobberknocker. Feels like a 24-17 type game.
BOL to all and Merry Christmas! Cheers!
0
Done with betting for the year, but for what it's worth here are my takes on the three playoff games today.
PENN ST. (-8, down from -8') vs Smu - Seems like a big number, but with temps in the 20s and wind chill in the teens, I can't help but recall how UNLV and Tulane played at cold weather venues in their respective conference title games. Also, the Mustangs are the only team in the playoffs with a minus turnover differential, and while it's hard to handicap turnovers it seems likely that the Nittany Lions will win the turnover battle here. Feels like a 27-13 kinda game, with Penn St. pounding the rock down SMU's throat, and keeping that high powered Mustang offense on the sidelines.
TEXAS (-13', up from -11) vs Clemson - Longhorns have only lost twice, both times against Georgia. Dabo is 6-2 ATS as a postseason dog, but this isn't the same Clemson team as in years past. Texas is no guarantee though when laying doubles.
OHIO ST. (-7, down from -7') vs Tennessee - Another cold weather game, which favors the more physical team. That's not necessarily the home team Buckeyes though. We haven't seen them since they lost to Michigan as a three TD favorite. Not sure they've recovered from that. This one has all the makings of a defensive slobberknocker. Feels like a 24-17 type game.
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Cheers
#3
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