Ohio St. -3

Ohio St. -3

Without much surprise most of the public here and everywhere else is on Arkansas +3 and ML. This is mainly due to the perception that the Big Ten is awful because they went 0-5 in bowls on New Years. There has been a huge overreaction to this as the Big Ten teams were all underdogs and only two of them were huge disappointments. Wisconsin was in position to tie the game, Penn St. was in position to win against Florida, and Northwestern covered the spread and played decently without their QB. In reality the Big Ten is still a top 3 conference, and the gap between them and the SEC isn’t quite as large as most believe. The fact that 5 underdogs lost on one day doesn’t really change anything.

The public also likes Arkansas because of the perception that Ohio St. has been awful against SEC teams. This has been true in bowl games the past 10 years, but that doesn’t really effect how this game will play out. Ohio St. was beaten badly against LSU and Florida because those teams’ defensive fronts physically dominated OSU’s offense, and their defense as a whole was very fast. Arkansas’s defense doesn’t really compare and OSU should be able to do well on offense.

The matchups also seem to favor Ohio St. This well-rested and healthy defense will be the best defense Arkansas has seen all season. They won’t allow 75 yard TD passes to end a half like LSU did. Ohio St. is one of the best defenses in stopping the run allowing only 3.0 ypr and should be able force Arkansas into a lot of 3^rd and longs. Their offense should have trouble sustaining drives against OSU. On the other side of the ball Arkansas is worse at stopping the run allowing 4.0 ypr, and I don’t see how they will be able to stop Ohio St.’s rushing attack and contain Terrell Pryor, which is simply too much to ask from an average defense.

The only problems I see are that Ohio St. struggles in the red zone and Arkansas has a solid return game that could return a kickoff for a TD. However, they still have a big enough of an edge where they should win.

Motivation

I give Ohio St. a small motivational edge. All they have heard about is how they can’t beat teams from the SEC, and how the Big Ten is awful. This is their chance to prove everyone wrong. Arkansas will be pumped, but this game has got to be extra meaningful to Tressel and the rest of the Buckeyes.  

The line opened at OSU -3 and won’t move towards -2.5 even though most of the public is on Arkansas. I wouldn’t be surprised if it went to -3.5 by game time.

I like OSU to win 30-20..

What do you guys think?

RJ very good points about past ohio st - sec games they are meaningless

Tresell can win these games (see miami 03 and oregon last year)

not that it matters -Correct me if i'm wrong but that Miami team he beat had more nfl players on it than any of the sec teams that would beat ohio st later on

I don't like the ark d in this spot and i think mallett can tend to force some throws in key spots of the game

as i said on saturday when the sec was 0-3 up to that point it was meaningless , the big ten flopped , but if you really look it at it wasn't that bad with the exception of the mich st game

wiscy lost a heartbreaker in a place where many other big ten teams have lost to teams that weren't as good as TCU

NW played without their starting QB and was sloppy in the 1h why are they in a new years bowl , they didn't even go .500 in the conference

Mich was the worst defense in college football this year , why at 7-5 they were in a New Year's bowl i'll never understand , they did not compete with any of the top 3 teams in the big ten this year - lost by DD to all 4 , Miss St blowing them out means abosoultly nothing

Penn St was driving to take the lead late and the kid returned a pick 6 for the score and it went the other way , clearly an indication that Penn St did not belong in that game

The Mich st loss to bama was the stinker

Motivation edge must go to OSU. They have heard for over a month about how they can't beat teams from the SEC and now they are returning to the place where they got their asses kicked 3 years ago. In addition, they have heard for 2 days now how bad the Big Ten is and how they don't desreve to be in this game. Arkansas had a great year regardless of what happens in this game. OSU will be pissed, Arkansas will be ready to play. A pissed team seems more motivated to me.

Ohio St. -3

Ohio St. survived a ton of injuries and a terrible safety call to win and cover. 

RJ the safety call was more than legit - his fwd progress was stopped than he broke free and got tackled in the end zone - and he knew it after watching his long face on the sideline -  we got the $$.