Ohio State Future: Hedge?

Hello All,

I took FanDuel “QF Winner” Tennessee/Ohio State/Oregon for $600 at +155.

It would pay $1530 for a $930 profit if Ohio State wins.

Right now the line is ND +8.5 -114 on FanDuel with a +285 on the ML.

Would you let it ride, take ND plus the points to try to middle and sweep both, OR take ND on the ML for a guaranteed profit?

nd moneyline

@Moose1986

 Yea if you are truly trying to hedge it’s ND moneyline.  Your other options are not hedges and are greedy imo.  Not saying that are bad bets necessarily, just that I view those other two as being greedy if your true goal is to hedge.  

People that hedge are just dumb. You giving free money back to the book. Now if you did something crazy like put $20 on a 10 team parlay, which paid $15k, and had one leg to go, then definitely I would say hedge, but that's an extremely rare scenario.

Why hedge when Ohio State is gonna crush ND. 

@EzWinnahs

 lol what a clueless post here.  There are many many situations where hedges make sense if you’re in this thing to make money long term.  But I guess if you’re only betting with 10 bucks, which it sounds like you are, then you just have never had enough money on anything where a hedge matters.  You bet big numbers, and want to profit long term, hedging is your friend.  Why do you think all of wallstreet hedges every single one of their trades? I am willing to bet that question went wayyy over your head.  Not sure he is the dumb one in this equation.  I would look at the four fingers pointed right back at you…

Tough. GL 

Pretty easy in this case since you can get the dog at a decent #.....You have a middle opportunity with a small insurance hedge available.

Ya put $330 on ND +8.5.....

No matter what, you win $600....so worst case scenario you turn your +155 bet into +100 if OSU covers...OSU wins by 8 or less you sweep...If ND wins, you cut your losses in half.....

@TRAIN69

 Hi Train and Jimbo,

Obviously a TRUE Hedge is to take Notre Dame with the ML. I don’t think they are going to win the game. I believe Ohio State will win the game. 

I can absolutely take ND ML and watch a game coming out with $500 plus as profit.

I can also take ND with the points. Hopefully that number climbs. It’s at 8.5. 

Lastly, I can also “live bet” if Ohio State gets out to a 7-0 lead. Maybe get ND at +15.5 or +500. 

I am still deciding on what to do. I appreciate your comments and time answering my question. I’ll let you know my decision when it’s made. 

Thanks fellas.

DON'T Do it..OSU gets out To A BIG first Half Lead..up 14-0 z,at One Point.....

Who/Where is Notre Dame offense???

Gonna be an Ugly NCAACG...Sad But True...

EVERY body will be Teasing OSU at -2' WITH NFL team this weekend they Love..ie..Bills, KC Chiefs, Rams...??..And Both ways Philly and Rams..I Love Rams on that One..

Good Luck..The Crusha 

SMH

SMH ?

I have decided that I am going to let it ride. I believe Ohio State is the better team with more talent. They have an offensive scheme where big time talent can take over. The only way they lose is if they are conservative, run the ball on first down, and don’t play with tempo at some point. 

This game could be close for a while but I believe the best unit in the game (The Buckeye Defense) will hold Notre Dame to under 20 points. Ohio State 24-13.

@Moose1986

 ‘The only way they lose’… Everyone is sooo sooo confident that osu just wins this thing by a mile.  That would scare the hell out of me if I was an OSU backer.  Especially with the line coming down in the face of this narrative.  GL on your play. 

@JimboSlice01

 Hey Jimbo,

I respect the fact that you have been on Notre Dame since the opening line. I believe you are more on the fact that ND will cover but not win. Correct me if I’m wrong on that.

I just don’t see many facets of the game where Notre Dame has an advantage and can exploit Ohio State. What WR do they have to cause pressure down the field? Riley Leonard is average to below average at best skill wise. He does run the ball extremely well and has a lot of intangibles that make him a very good college QB.

I believe Notre Dame’s defense will keep them in this game as long as they can but eventually the defense will get worn down. Whether it’s Egbuka and possession targets, Smith down the field, Junkins with tough running in the red zone and between the tackles, Henderson doing a little bit of everything; Notre Dame has A LOT of things to worry about especially when they play a ton of man and Cover 1. 

Jeremiah Smith will be targeted early and often. There is no way he’s going to have 1 catch for 3 yards in the Title Game. 

Now my respected questions to you are, “What type of game do you see Notre Dame winning? How would the flow have to go in order for the upset to occur?”

I have a +155 ticket at -375 right now. I feel confident about the situation that I’m in. 

@Moose1986

 I am on both moneyline (ND futures at +1000) and extremely heavy on ND +9.5.  

I believe the path to a ND victory is not as narrow as all the ‘experts’ will lead you to believe.  In addition to the spread coming down, the moneyline is doing the same thing in the face of all that OSU money and the constant OSU love fest you see on absolutely every single breakdown of this game.  

im just saying it is rarely, if ever, just that simple.  And deep pockets are suggesting to you that the opposite is going to happen.  When there is only one marquee game like this on, line movement must be paid attention to.  

now, this by no means says that ND wins this game.  I’m just saying it is much much closer than what the public is being led to believe here.  And you must pay attention to the line movements in games like this, it can tell you some things.  But to answer your specific question, I see ND forcing Howard to make hard throws and ND defense doing what they do, taking the ball away. 

that’s why I would be nervous as a OSU backer here.  If I had a large wager on OSU and saw this type of movement, I would seriously consider a hedge like you have been doing.  This is how I see it.  Best of luck whichever way you choose to go! 

@Moose1986

 Oh and one more thing.. ND just last year played man coverage against this team and shut down Marvin Harrison.  Smith is good, but is he better than Harrison? No reason it can’t be replicated here with the right schemes.  It has been done more than once this year to him.  3,4 times really…

@JimboSlice01

 I agree with you that tough throws and forcing turnovers are their way to victory. Touché on the Harrison point with last year’s game that occurred in South Bend. Who would have thought that Kyle McCord blew at Ohio State and went off at Syracuse? 

Should be a great game! Hopefully it isn’t lol. We are on opposite sides of the gambling tickets but I look forward to continued banter. Thanks for responding and having a civil debate about the game. A lot of mo mo’s on here are outrageous.

The only thing on this game is I hope you get a backdoor cover so I’m not sweating it out. ??. Enjoy the game bro!

ND + POINTS TRY AND MIDDLE BOL