Want to lay a hefty wager on this as I think they will definitely be in that game. Price shopping on futures is much more worth it to me than a point here and there on a spread so I wanted to see if anyone had any more info. Tried LVAsports' website and they dont show futures avail at every book.
So especially if you are in Vegas if could either post a site that shows futures for all casinos or just show the odds and for what book you have that would be great.
Oregon +350 at stations casinos but they usually dilute their futures
Thanks fellas
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Want to lay a hefty wager on this as I think they will definitely be in that game. Price shopping on futures is much more worth it to me than a point here and there on a spread so I wanted to see if anyone had any more info. Tried LVAsports' website and they dont show futures avail at every book.
So especially if you are in Vegas if could either post a site that shows futures for all casinos or just show the odds and for what book you have that would be great.
Oregon +350 at stations casinos but they usually dilute their futures
FWIW, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT ran 10,000 simulations of how the season would play out:
The results are:
Oregon has a 72.1% chance to make the playoffs
Oregon has a 53% chance of being a #1 or #2 seed
Oregon makes it to the National Title Game 39.3% of the time
Oregon has a 20.7% chance of winning the National Title (you could say that based on this Oregon would only hold value at 5-1 odds but based on the structure of playoff system and above numbers I strongly disagree)
If Oregon gets FSU think they would struggle mightily on defense to contain Oregon and decent chance they lose by DD's. other games are a little more hard to judge IMO
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FWIW, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT ran 10,000 simulations of how the season would play out:
The results are:
Oregon has a 72.1% chance to make the playoffs
Oregon has a 53% chance of being a #1 or #2 seed
Oregon makes it to the National Title Game 39.3% of the time
Oregon has a 20.7% chance of winning the National Title (you could say that based on this Oregon would only hold value at 5-1 odds but based on the structure of playoff system and above numbers I strongly disagree)
If Oregon gets FSU think they would struggle mightily on defense to contain Oregon and decent chance they lose by DD's. other games are a little more hard to judge IMO
so even after Oregon firmly set themselves as a top 2 team barring a loss last weekend my book hasnt changed the odds. Little surprised. It's still at +350.
Meanwhile Alabama is currently the clear cut favorite at +160. Like Oregon's chances when/if they meet up.
Anyone see anything higher on Oregon for the price?
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so even after Oregon firmly set themselves as a top 2 team barring a loss last weekend my book hasnt changed the odds. Little surprised. It's still at +350.
Meanwhile Alabama is currently the clear cut favorite at +160. Like Oregon's chances when/if they meet up.
Anyone see anything higher on Oregon for the price?
I really think Oregon has a chance to make it to the Championship, but I really dont think they are gonna find a favorable matchup if they get there.....
3.5-1 is simply not worth it. I wouldnt play 5-1 either
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I really think Oregon has a chance to make it to the Championship, but I really dont think they are gonna find a favorable matchup if they get there.....
3.5-1 is simply not worth it. I wouldnt play 5-1 either
I agree that if Oregon were to make the title game that they would not match up favorably with a more physical team. Not enough value for me either.
Also, if UCLA beats Stanford this weekend, they would win the Pac 12 South tie-breaker over the UA/ASU winner, correct? I know Oregon beat down UCLA earlier this year, but beating a team twice in one season is very tough to do, especially at the college level. It would not shock me at all if UCLA upsets Oregon in the Pac 12 title game. I'd almost rather find a prop bet on the odds of them not making the playoff. Just food for thought. Best of luck on whatever you decide.
TD
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I agree that if Oregon were to make the title game that they would not match up favorably with a more physical team. Not enough value for me either.
Also, if UCLA beats Stanford this weekend, they would win the Pac 12 South tie-breaker over the UA/ASU winner, correct? I know Oregon beat down UCLA earlier this year, but beating a team twice in one season is very tough to do, especially at the college level. It would not shock me at all if UCLA upsets Oregon in the Pac 12 title game. I'd almost rather find a prop bet on the odds of them not making the playoff. Just food for thought. Best of luck on whatever you decide.
I've said this before........if Oregon makes the playoff they will lose their 1st game, I don't care who it's against. They are the same team they've been for the last 4-5 years.
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I've said this before........if Oregon makes the playoff they will lose their 1st game, I don't care who it's against. They are the same team they've been for the last 4-5 years.
I agree that if Oregon were to make the title game that they would not match up favorably with a more physical team. Not enough value for me either.
Also, if UCLA beats Stanford this weekend, they would win the Pac 12 South tie-breaker over the UA/ASU winner, correct? I know Oregon beat down UCLA earlier this year, but beating a team twice in one season is very tough to do, especially at the college level. It would not shock me at all if UCLA upsets Oregon in the Pac 12 title game. I'd almost rather find a prop bet on the odds of them not making the playoff. Just food for thought. Best of luck on whatever you decide.
TD
You mean a more physical team like Michigan State ? Not to mention they are a lot healthier and have progressed more as a team since then
Themugg,
No this is not the same Oregon team from the last 4-5 years. May have a been a small dropoff on defense but the other positions are much improved and Mariotta is playing by far the best season of his career. He has 32 TD's and 2 INT's. Go back and show me the last QB who was able to accomplish 32 TD's with only 2 INT. Might have to go back a few decades...Let me know if you find it. Combine that with the speed and quickness this team brings and they are a problem for anyone in the country. You can definitely go bet Bama at +160 with an average QB and one option at WR
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Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
I agree that if Oregon were to make the title game that they would not match up favorably with a more physical team. Not enough value for me either.
Also, if UCLA beats Stanford this weekend, they would win the Pac 12 South tie-breaker over the UA/ASU winner, correct? I know Oregon beat down UCLA earlier this year, but beating a team twice in one season is very tough to do, especially at the college level. It would not shock me at all if UCLA upsets Oregon in the Pac 12 title game. I'd almost rather find a prop bet on the odds of them not making the playoff. Just food for thought. Best of luck on whatever you decide.
TD
You mean a more physical team like Michigan State ? Not to mention they are a lot healthier and have progressed more as a team since then
Themugg,
No this is not the same Oregon team from the last 4-5 years. May have a been a small dropoff on defense but the other positions are much improved and Mariotta is playing by far the best season of his career. He has 32 TD's and 2 INT's. Go back and show me the last QB who was able to accomplish 32 TD's with only 2 INT. Might have to go back a few decades...Let me know if you find it. Combine that with the speed and quickness this team brings and they are a problem for anyone in the country. You can definitely go bet Bama at +160 with an average QB and one option at WR
My book has released possible playoff game lines for wagering:
Mississippi State vs Oregon: Miss State +3.5 Oregon -3.5
Florida State vs Mississippi State: Florida State -1 Mississippi State +1
Florida State vs Oregon: Florida State +1 Oregon -1
Florida State vs Alabama: Florida State +4 Alabama -4
Oregon vs Alabama: Oregon +3 Alabama -3
Mississippi State vs Alabama Mississippi State +7 Alabama -7
As you can see books disagree with those saying physical teams are going to be way too much for Oregon. Oregon at absolute worst a 3 pt dog to Alabama and a favorite against any other team they play. Don't tell me there isn't any value on Oregon +350
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My book has released possible playoff game lines for wagering:
Mississippi State vs Oregon: Miss State +3.5 Oregon -3.5
Florida State vs Mississippi State: Florida State -1 Mississippi State +1
Florida State vs Oregon: Florida State +1 Oregon -1
Florida State vs Alabama: Florida State +4 Alabama -4
Oregon vs Alabama: Oregon +3 Alabama -3
Mississippi State vs Alabama Mississippi State +7 Alabama -7
As you can see books disagree with those saying physical teams are going to be way too much for Oregon. Oregon at absolute worst a 3 pt dog to Alabama and a favorite against any other team they play. Don't tell me there isn't any value on Oregon +350
I might wait until after the P12 Championship. I think you could still get +300 after they win. The P12 Championship game is not at Oregon this year. It is in the 49ers new stadium,
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I might wait until after the P12 Championship. I think you could still get +300 after they win. The P12 Championship game is not at Oregon this year. It is in the 49ers new stadium,
You mean a more physical team like Michigan State ? Not to mention they are a lot healthier and have progressed more as a team since then
Themugg,
No this is not the same Oregon team from the last 4-5 years. May have a been a small dropoff on defense but the other positions are much improved and Mariotta is playing by far the best season of his career. He has 32 TD's and 2 INT's. Go back and show me the last QB who was able to accomplish 32 TD's with only 2 INT. Might have to go back a few decades...Let me know if you find it. Combine that with the speed and quickness this team brings and they are a problem for anyone in the country. You can definitely go bet Bama at +160 with an average QB and one option at WR
No, more like Arizona ... Point taken with Michigan State. Statistically still a good defense, but if you look at the offenses that MSU has played, I think their D has proved to be quite down against better competition. And not calling Arizona a physical team, just pointing out that Oregon is beatable. And I meant I don't think the Oregon defense can stop a physical, balanced top level offense. Wasn't really commenting on the offensive side of the ball against a physical defense. Yes, Mariotta's numbers are very, very impressive, but you have to look at both sides of the ball. And I disagree somewhat about the speed and quickness this team brings... at least relative to themselves in previous years. I don't see many one play drives where a De'Anthony Thomas, LaMichael James or Kenyon Barner takes it to the end zone. I'd actually argue that with a bigger back like Royce Freeman that this year's team might have the missing element it needs to make a title run.... but not without an overachieving defensive effort two games in a row. Could happen, but we'll see. As they say, that's why they play the games. I just read that if Oregon makes it to the CFP title game, they would do so with the worst total defense (currently 92nd) since the BCS era began in 1998 (this is per cbssports.com).
The more I think about this, there is not one dominant team this year in college football that is way ahead of everyone else (like Alabama in 2012). If you're taking the "somebody has to win it" approach and think there's valve on Oregon, then go for it. I'm just weary of Futures odds in general, doesn't do much for me. Seems like a real crapshoot right now. I think it's going to be a wild couple final weeks. Best of luck.
TD
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Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:
You mean a more physical team like Michigan State ? Not to mention they are a lot healthier and have progressed more as a team since then
Themugg,
No this is not the same Oregon team from the last 4-5 years. May have a been a small dropoff on defense but the other positions are much improved and Mariotta is playing by far the best season of his career. He has 32 TD's and 2 INT's. Go back and show me the last QB who was able to accomplish 32 TD's with only 2 INT. Might have to go back a few decades...Let me know if you find it. Combine that with the speed and quickness this team brings and they are a problem for anyone in the country. You can definitely go bet Bama at +160 with an average QB and one option at WR
No, more like Arizona ... Point taken with Michigan State. Statistically still a good defense, but if you look at the offenses that MSU has played, I think their D has proved to be quite down against better competition. And not calling Arizona a physical team, just pointing out that Oregon is beatable. And I meant I don't think the Oregon defense can stop a physical, balanced top level offense. Wasn't really commenting on the offensive side of the ball against a physical defense. Yes, Mariotta's numbers are very, very impressive, but you have to look at both sides of the ball. And I disagree somewhat about the speed and quickness this team brings... at least relative to themselves in previous years. I don't see many one play drives where a De'Anthony Thomas, LaMichael James or Kenyon Barner takes it to the end zone. I'd actually argue that with a bigger back like Royce Freeman that this year's team might have the missing element it needs to make a title run.... but not without an overachieving defensive effort two games in a row. Could happen, but we'll see. As they say, that's why they play the games. I just read that if Oregon makes it to the CFP title game, they would do so with the worst total defense (currently 92nd) since the BCS era began in 1998 (this is per cbssports.com).
The more I think about this, there is not one dominant team this year in college football that is way ahead of everyone else (like Alabama in 2012). If you're taking the "somebody has to win it" approach and think there's valve on Oregon, then go for it. I'm just weary of Futures odds in general, doesn't do much for me. Seems like a real crapshoot right now. I think it's going to be a wild couple final weeks. Best of luck.
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