Phil Steele CFB Preview

Does anyone on here normally pick up a copy of Phil's CFB preview prior to the season?

I ALWAYS DO. IT'S LIKE $12 AT WALMART. GETTING MINE THIS WEEK.

  SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD MAGAZINE TO HAVE  

It puts all others to shame. 

Around my house it is known as the Phil Steele Bible  

 I've bought it every year since 2002.

For the first month of the season it is a useful tool......the plus/minus power ratings are often very close to the early season spreads.

Of course, as the year goes on, injuries, suspensions, etc throw everything into chaos.

Buy every year but using it less & less each year, just too much info available out there to rely on Phil in 2016

STILL........a great deal and a must have for any (serious) CFB fan...

BUT.......for any (serious) handicapper....an INFORMATION source only....IGNORE any/all predictions

WHY?

Let me AX you this.....after reading his preview of (mostly) every single team....how often do you come away with a perspective of...."WOW.... they're gonna be MUCH better in 2016!"...................?.................

Eggzactly.....he (seems to be).....more interested in giving folks what they want to hear (POSITIVE vibes) >> SELLING MAGAZINES....than offering what WE need......A CRITICAL ANALYSIS
  NOTE:   nothing wrong with him wanting to be more legit...who TF else is mentioned on many team's official websites.....while selling picks at the same time ?...............
  *thru Northcoast Sports.....no one knows how much he's still involved....supposedly 'loosely' associated still

For me the post spring depth charts....(a pain in the azz to chase that stuff down on your own).....a 7 year snapshot of O & D stats.....CLEARLY showing any upward or downward trends...and 10 years of SU / ATS stats...are most useful.....

I stopped buying the magazine the team previews just suck. The rehash of 3 years ago I called for this blah-blah is pretty useless. I do like the power ratings and turnovers up-down page. He produces raw data rather than insight. I do use his website a ton before and during the season.

IF YOU BET PARLAYS YOUR GOING TO DO ABOUT 2 TO 7% TOPS  ANY TEAM CAN LOOSE ON ANY GIVEN DAY , AND THATS CAPPING  THEM DOWN TO TURN OVER RATIOS , OFF.PPY DEF. PPY, DIF'L, SACKS OFF,SACKS DEF,3RD DOWN EFFIC. TIME OF POS ...   BOL    THE MONEYS THERE YOU JUST HAVE TO BE SMART AND GET IT!!!  

Steele (as a respected CFB guy / not tout ha).....can call a given team and ask for info.....the depth charts he lists are ACCURATE post spring....along with a few (pretty good) guesses
  *the 10 year SU/ATS logs are directly underneath / 7 year O & D stats are to the right

example of how his info can be used:

Looking at KANSAS ST.....p 150-51
  *how will they perform in 2016?

1) Snyder back 2009....what has happened since?
         * we have a CLEAR trend...better every year early....PEAKED in 2012......worse every year since...offensively AND defensively....special teams always good
 
 SU-     6-6 > 7-6 > 10-3 > 11-2 < 8-5 < 9-4 < 6-7
 
    O-    since 2012
         pts/g....39 > 33 > 35 > 28
         rush....4.8 > 4.5 > 3.7 > 3.9
         yds/play....6.2 > 6.3 > 6.2 > 5.0
         sacks allowed ....14 > 26 > 31 > 35
         pass %....64 > 62 > 65 > 47
         yds/pt....10.3 > 12.1 > 11.8 > 11.2
         turnovers...+19 > 0 > +8 > -3

    D-    pts/g... 22 > 23 > 23 > 31
          yds/rush...3.8 > 3.9 > 4.1 > 4.4
          yds/play..5.4 > 5.1 > 5.5 > 6.2
          TD.....375 > 359 > 369 > 452
          yds/pt...16.9 > 15.7 > 16.0 > 14.4
          Pass %...62 > 60 > 62 > 64
          sacks....32 > 28 > 26 > 38
          
* BUT....has the schedule simply gotten tougher?
   nope (from FEI) 2012- #25 > 2013 #42 > 2014 #54 > #33 2015
     note:  ST #1 in 2012...then #33 > #6 > #1 in 2015
        *Steele has SOS ....historical logs faster at FEI / S&P

also helpful...
  *the very confusing ( under weekly stats on PhilSteele.com)
     OFF vs FOE DEF....and vice versa
  meaning ....how did a given team's O & D perform vs an opponent...relative to how other teams did as well...

looking at KSU vs W Vagina....
    O - he lists #10 / -100
  *meaning only 3 teams did worse vs WV D (KSU had 304 TO)...Iowa St had 284...Kan with 209...Ga Southern with 224
  * the -100 means...if you subtract what KSU had vs the WV D...how much did WV allow per game...vs the other teams?
     answer is 404...(5154 - 304) / 12

    D - #6 and +35.....WV gained 447 yds on the KSU D....their 6th most all year....they gained an average of 482 vs other teams
                 
 
A good team to bet on?
  *the 10 year ATS logs reveal.....why helll yea

  In most every situation...Snyder teams OVERachieve
      *EXCEPT....non-conference games....as he stresses B12 play (and especially kicking the living crap outta Kansas) 
         42-19-1 ATS in B12 play / 11-18 vs non-conf

$$  What has changed to stop the UGLY trend?
          *Steele lists coaches (same)....problems in 2015 review....along with a brief preview of O and D in 2016.....along with transfers / injured players in 2015 returning....

'GUN TO THE HEAD'.....I would say the decline continues...although dangerous as a dog in spots you bet
  *no way in helll I put my hard earned cash behind it tho...Snyder ain't taking any of my money....................

Contrary to what you see here on Covers......
 *the BEST idea is to know BEFOREHAND when a team will improve.....not AFTER....when EVERYBODY knows they can play...then the point-spread already reflects this........your EDGE is gone ............

Here's a nice find.....?..........on page 137
  *Colorado a 'play on' team?......no bro they suck right?.....

draw a line under 2013 in 7 year O & D stats (MacIntyre's 1st year)
  *under 2012 maybe better....the year before

Offense improved his 1st year....since has been about the same
  *BUT check out the D....huge gains since he arrived

from 2012- 2015

pts allowed      46 > 38 > 39 > 28
TD                   489 > 468 > 461 > 417
rush D              5.9 > 4.9 > 5.6 > 5.0
pass %             68 > 59 > 60 > 57
yds/play              7.1 > 6.1 > 6.5 > 5.7
sacks                 19 > 18 > 22 > 27
yds/pt                10.6 > 12.2 > 11.8 > 15.2 (higher number better) 
  *not too tough to predict the 2016 numbers is it?

NOW.....they bring back 9 starters (10 with DT Tupou) + 16/20 leading tacklers
 Crazy Jim Leavitt (long time USF HC) is in his 2nd year as DC

NOTE:   usually a bad team to bet on...53-66-2 ATS L10 years
                  *BUT not bad at home.....6-0 ATS run as a home favorite / 7-3 as home dog

Buy it every year. 

What do you guys think about Blue ribbon year book?

$15 cover price no matter where u buy it.

Steele is now picking teams to surprise that finished with double digit victories last year rotflmfao

Since he joined espn he lost his nutsack and is afraid to take chances in sleeper picks

What picks do Phil Steele have posted up on espn insider?

Worth its weight in gold.