PITT/FSU write up

Being a pitt fan...Ive watched this team literally give me a bunch of broken promises. Yes of course a few awesome things have occurred like larry fitzgerald/tyler palko era...McCoy running down every defense he came across and who can forget Dan marino?

Those days are gone. We suffered though Wannyball. The "high octane" todd graham offense. And losing to a division 1-A school in the first time since the program began.

That brings us to tonights game. A completely unproven pitt offense with a better than average defense that returns the bulk of its players versus a basically unproven florida state offense with a better than average defense once again returning the bulk of its players.

The game...to put it bluntly...should be a first class grade A Cluster F**** on offense. Interceptions, fumbles, dropped passes, muffed punts, you name it. But both defense should play well. Maybe each sides lets up a big play at some point in the game...but nothing awful.

As far as taking a side in the game, betting on pitt games is something quite hard to do. They lost last year to Youngstown state...but a few games later they beat a ranked Virginia tech team. They are quite unpredictable. Pitt defense should hold strong...but the offense is a different story. Pitt's main strength for years is at the rb position. Their starting rb...issac Bennett..a guy who has barely played and was a total afterthought. They also have a senior QB brought in from Wisconsin (I think). Experienced yes...but so is a 80 year old hooker...neither one looks attractive.

Flordia state has a better offense, but with a freshmen qb that is completely unproven. Florida state has the better recruiting program, and experts have them ranked for a reason...even with their losses of players to graduation and the NFL. Their new qb may be good, but he is going against a better than average pitt defense and he will struggle.

In conclusion, picking a side is difficult due to the 10 point spot. Pitt is going to lose this game. Its going to happen. The real question is by how much. Honestly, I think it will be by 10 points. I do not see any real value in taking florida state with a rebuilt offense. But I don't see taking pitt either that has NO offense.

The under...looks fantastic. 49 points is a lot for a game like this. In my opinion, it should be 40.5.

I like under 24 first half, under 10 first quarter, and under 49 for the game.

As far as a side goes, No action.

If you must have action...I see florida st -6 first half as a reasonable value.

Final score florida st 20 pitt 10

Good luck all

Gl like the pick 

he will not struggles

good luck, my friend

Very good write up and I agree, this game should be a NO PLAY.  Bet the UNDER though!!!

"Experienced yes...but so is a 80 year old hooker...neither one looks attractive"

Well written! good luck .

bankroll - though your write up was well written, I disagree with your assessment that FSU has a rebuilt Offense...they have elite RB's elite WR's, a QB who though will start his first game at Pitt, was the #1 QB in the nation coming out of HS in 2012.  In addition, FSU has a top 10 OL.   FSU does get 4 new starters on the DL, but two of those were top 2 at their position.  All four will probably be 1st or 2nd day NFL draft picks eventually.  FSU's LB's and Secondary are good.   The only Achilles heal for FSU covering will be the general aloofness and conservative play call of J Fisher.  

I see a close game for a quarter, then FSU's depth and skill position players starting pulling away as the half approaches.  FSU moves significantly ahead in Q3, then coasts as Pitt scores a TD in chump time.

FSU 31

Pitt 10

Trust me on this one.... Over 48 

 

longhornhoosier:

I forgot to add the running back/wide receiver information. You are 100% correct. However, Pitt excels at stopping the run and the unproven QB cancels out the wide receivers. I wouldn't call FSU wide receivers elite...manuel made them look better than what they were in my opinion.

Overall, your score prediction could easily happen. I thought it was interesting that it hits 41 points and that I thought the line should be 40.5. Kinda scary! But pitt is the home team and both programs are rebuilding offense in their own way.

We will see what happens!

 

i don't think Savage ever went to Wisconsin,,,,???...the new OC at Pitt came from Wisconsin. This game is a complete and utter mismatch...take FSU -10.5 and thank me later

Very nice write up Bankroll2010 but I also think that what LonghornHoosier added is sharp and I tend to believe that he is close to the final result but -- as you pointed out -- you've both nailed probably what the best play is in this game and that is the under.  BOL with your play. 

Pitt TT Under 18.5 is golden

Couldn't be more wrong on Florida state than you are.  Florida State RETURNS 4 offensive line starters all over 300lbs, 2 running backs with a combined 1,295 yards rushing and 19 TDs, and a stud wideout in Greene who had 741 yards and 6 TDs last year.  Defensively Florida State LOST 7 starters.  the bulk of which were on that massive defensive line. On the other side of the ball Pitt has NO runstoppers on that defense as their strength lies entirely in the defensive backfield.  Offensively they will be lost without Graham as he was the only pillar in a crumbling offense last year.

Florida State rolls in his one.  but, BOL with your play sir.

Good Luck

For the record SAVAGE went to Rutgers, was ousted as QB, than went to Arizona, where he sat out, than left when rich rod came in as coach. Winston is the QB for FSU and the kids been writing plays and studying defense since he was 12. It's all over google how good this kid is. You can't ever lay points with FSU because they are 4-9 ATS last year, and almost always lay down and die sometimes. Pitt has nobody proven anywhere and the FSU o line is too good. Under 24 1st half, and also FSU -10 for the game looks solid. But once again, FSU never covers, but who knows now good this kid is, and how their defense will shut down savage. He's 6-5 and slings. 

well.....hmmm..

 

lol