I think the lines would have been similar with TCU and Baylor.
You are incorrect! Odds on Bama or Oregon vs. TCU or Baylor would be no more than 4 or 4.5 points... definitely would not be a TD! Not a chance! Oddsmakers know how to set a line on these games, and we don't need to "guess" what their lines would be, because they use power ratings to create them...
As for an 8 team playoff, obviously a 1 vs. 8 matchup would have a line like these games, but not any bigger, because the worst teams in the top 8 (from a power ratings point of view) would be FSU and Ohio St... Miss St, TCU, Baylor and whoever came in at the other spot would all be smaller underdogs against Bama (or Oregon) than the current lines...
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Quote Originally Posted by Dutch1976:
I think the lines would have been similar with TCU and Baylor.
You are incorrect! Odds on Bama or Oregon vs. TCU or Baylor would be no more than 4 or 4.5 points... definitely would not be a TD! Not a chance! Oddsmakers know how to set a line on these games, and we don't need to "guess" what their lines would be, because they use power ratings to create them...
As for an 8 team playoff, obviously a 1 vs. 8 matchup would have a line like these games, but not any bigger, because the worst teams in the top 8 (from a power ratings point of view) would be FSU and Ohio St... Miss St, TCU, Baylor and whoever came in at the other spot would all be smaller underdogs against Bama (or Oregon) than the current lines...
I mean, come on! Auburn was a 9.5 pt dog against Bama on the road... they would be less than a TD on a neutral site... and they wouldn't even be one of the 8 playoff teams...
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I mean, come on! Auburn was a 9.5 pt dog against Bama on the road... they would be less than a TD on a neutral site... and they wouldn't even be one of the 8 playoff teams...
I mean, come on! Auburn was a 9.5 pt dog against Bama on the road... they would be less than a TD on a neutral site... and they wouldn't even be one of the 8 playoff teams...
Absolutely.
Sagarin's rating on FSU is number 15 - no where near the top.
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Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:
I mean, come on! Auburn was a 9.5 pt dog against Bama on the road... they would be less than a TD on a neutral site... and they wouldn't even be one of the 8 playoff teams...
Absolutely.
Sagarin's rating on FSU is number 15 - no where near the top.
Sagarin's rating on FSU is number 15 - no where near the top.
Not just Sagarin... Golden Mean has them at 19... Predictor at 17... and the Football Power Index has them the highest at 10... all of those same rankings have TCU between #2 and #5...
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Quote Originally Posted by Tinklebell:
Absolutely.
Sagarin's rating on FSU is number 15 - no where near the top.
Not just Sagarin... Golden Mean has them at 19... Predictor at 17... and the Football Power Index has them the highest at 10... all of those same rankings have TCU between #2 and #5...
The wide disparity of the odds shows how much the playoff committee messed it up.
Odds don't necessarily show you how much better Vegas thinks a team is. They are more about public perception and where the money is going to go. A lot of people chomping at the bit to get Bama at -9, the line will probably go up a few points atleast by game time to -11 or so. Bama will then win by 7 and vegas will clean house knowing that bama will win a close game, and that a lot of suckers will think Ohio State is garbage and bet the house on a larger number.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tinklebell:
The wide disparity of the odds shows how much the playoff committee messed it up.
Odds don't necessarily show you how much better Vegas thinks a team is. They are more about public perception and where the money is going to go. A lot of people chomping at the bit to get Bama at -9, the line will probably go up a few points atleast by game time to -11 or so. Bama will then win by 7 and vegas will clean house knowing that bama will win a close game, and that a lot of suckers will think Ohio State is garbage and bet the house on a larger number.
Odds don't necessarily show you how much better Vegas thinks a team is. They are more about public perception and where the money is going to go. A lot of people chomping at the bit to get Bama at -9, the line will probably go up a few points atleast by game time to -11 or so. Bama will then win by 7 and vegas will clean house knowing that bama will win a close game, and that a lot of suckers will think Ohio State is garbage and bet the house on a larger number.
this man gets it
spreads don't indicate which teams are better, spreads are made to induce 50/50 betting action. and actually one can take it a step farther and say spreads are made to be most profitable for the books. so do not confuse spreads with team parity.
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Quote Originally Posted by Hoss311:
Odds don't necessarily show you how much better Vegas thinks a team is. They are more about public perception and where the money is going to go. A lot of people chomping at the bit to get Bama at -9, the line will probably go up a few points atleast by game time to -11 or so. Bama will then win by 7 and vegas will clean house knowing that bama will win a close game, and that a lot of suckers will think Ohio State is garbage and bet the house on a larger number.
this man gets it
spreads don't indicate which teams are better, spreads are made to induce 50/50 betting action. and actually one can take it a step farther and say spreads are made to be most profitable for the books. so do not confuse spreads with team parity.
I mean, come on! Auburn was a 9.5 pt dog against Bama on the road... they would be less than a TD on a neutral site... and they wouldn't even be one of the 8 playoff teams...
Absolutely.Sagarin's rating on FSU is number 15 - no where near the top.
Sagarin had Bethune Cookman in his top 4 at one point last year hahaha
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Quote Originally Posted by Tinklebell:
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:
I mean, come on! Auburn was a 9.5 pt dog against Bama on the road... they would be less than a TD on a neutral site... and they wouldn't even be one of the 8 playoff teams...
Absolutely.Sagarin's rating on FSU is number 15 - no where near the top.
Sagarin had Bethune Cookman in his top 4 at one point last year hahaha
The year Cam Newton won the national championship, Bama woulda been favored over every team in the country. Would y'all have wanted Bama in the national title game because odds makers and analytics showed that they were the best team?
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The year Cam Newton won the national championship, Bama woulda been favored over every team in the country. Would y'all have wanted Bama in the national title game because odds makers and analytics showed that they were the best team?
Considering oddsmakers DID have Ohio State as the 4th best odds to make the 4-team playoff, you're completely right.
Oddsmakers had them as the 4th best odds because oddsmakers base those odds primarily on which team has the easiest schedule... that's why FSU was considered to have the best odds to make the playoff... but that has nothing to do with whether or not they think those teams are the 4 best in the country...
The pointspreads for these two matchups tell the story...
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Quote Originally Posted by cherokee10:
Considering oddsmakers DID have Ohio State as the 4th best odds to make the 4-team playoff, you're completely right.
Oddsmakers had them as the 4th best odds because oddsmakers base those odds primarily on which team has the easiest schedule... that's why FSU was considered to have the best odds to make the playoff... but that has nothing to do with whether or not they think those teams are the 4 best in the country...
The pointspreads for these two matchups tell the story...
Not just Sagarin... Golden Mean has them at 19... Predictor at 17... and the Football Power Index has them the highest at 10... all of those same rankings have TCU between #2 and #5...
Sags has the Bama line at -4. What you think about that....? Guess your boy give the Buckeyes a little more respect than you think
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Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:
Not just Sagarin... Golden Mean has them at 19... Predictor at 17... and the Football Power Index has them the highest at 10... all of those same rankings have TCU between #2 and #5...
Sags has the Bama line at -4. What you think about that....? Guess your boy give the Buckeyes a little more respect than you think
The year Cam Newton won the national championship, Bama woulda been favored over every team in the country. Would y'all have wanted Bama in the national title game because odds makers and analytics showed that they were the best team?
This is true but bama had one loss that year and auburn and the ducks were undefeated. When comparing OSU Baylor and TCU this year all teams with one loss, it was widely considered that the frogs were the best team,according to oddsmakers. TCU should of got in
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Quote Originally Posted by faasavalu22:
The year Cam Newton won the national championship, Bama woulda been favored over every team in the country. Would y'all have wanted Bama in the national title game because odds makers and analytics showed that they were the best team?
This is true but bama had one loss that year and auburn and the ducks were undefeated. When comparing OSU Baylor and TCU this year all teams with one loss, it was widely considered that the frogs were the best team,according to oddsmakers. TCU should of got in
Oddsmakers had them as the 4th best odds because oddsmakers base those odds primarily on which team has the easiest schedule... that's why FSU was considered to have the best odds to make the playoff... but that has nothing to do with whether or not they think those teams are the 4 best in the country...
The pointspreads for these two matchups tell the story...
Again you are wrong. Ohio state has a tougher strength of schedule than both baylor AND tcu, as does florida state. So if your theory were correct oddsmakers would have had tcu and baylor 1-2 because of the top 6 teams those two had the easiest strength of schedule. That is, if you want to use facts.
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Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:
Oddsmakers had them as the 4th best odds because oddsmakers base those odds primarily on which team has the easiest schedule... that's why FSU was considered to have the best odds to make the playoff... but that has nothing to do with whether or not they think those teams are the 4 best in the country...
The pointspreads for these two matchups tell the story...
Again you are wrong. Ohio state has a tougher strength of schedule than both baylor AND tcu, as does florida state. So if your theory were correct oddsmakers would have had tcu and baylor 1-2 because of the top 6 teams those two had the easiest strength of schedule. That is, if you want to use facts.
Again you are wrong. Ohio state has a tougher strength of schedule than both baylor AND tcu, as does florida state. So if your theory were correct oddsmakers would have had tcu and baylor 1-2 because of the top 6 teams those two had the easiest strength of schedule. That is, if you want to use facts.
He doesnt use facts.... just makes them up
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Quote Originally Posted by Hoss311:
Again you are wrong. Ohio state has a tougher strength of schedule than both baylor AND tcu, as does florida state. So if your theory were correct oddsmakers would have had tcu and baylor 1-2 because of the top 6 teams those two had the easiest strength of schedule. That is, if you want to use facts.
Again you are wrong. Ohio state has a tougher strength of schedule than both baylor AND tcu, as does florida state. So if your theory were correct oddsmakers would have had tcu and baylor 1-2 because of the top 6 teams those two had the easiest strength of schedule. That is, if you want to use facts.
Ohio State has played by far the weakest schedule of any of the 6 teams in contention . . . by a very wide margin. A 2-win Big 12 team > than a 7-win Big 10 team.
Ohio State played one legitimate team all season . . . Michigan State. That's pretty much it.
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Quote Originally Posted by Hoss311:
Again you are wrong. Ohio state has a tougher strength of schedule than both baylor AND tcu, as does florida state. So if your theory were correct oddsmakers would have had tcu and baylor 1-2 because of the top 6 teams those two had the easiest strength of schedule. That is, if you want to use facts.
Ohio State has played by far the weakest schedule of any of the 6 teams in contention . . . by a very wide margin. A 2-win Big 12 team > than a 7-win Big 10 team.
Ohio State played one legitimate team all season . . . Michigan State. That's pretty much it.
Oddsmakers had them as the 4th best odds because oddsmakers base those odds primarily on which team has the easiest schedule... that's why FSU was considered to have the best odds to make the playoff... but that has nothing to do with whether or not they think those teams are the 4 best in the country...
The pointspreads for these two matchups tell the story...
Yes the odds for a game are only relevant.
I would like to see the odds (from major odds-makers) of each team in the final eight against each other team, and use these odds to pick out the final four. I don't think Ohio State and FSU would have made it this year if this had been used.
The odds match well with the results, otherwise it would be easy to beat the books and it is not.
Just go against public perception all the time if you think odds are set according to public perception (which is not true). Have you seen those games where the public is betting heavily on one side while the odds don't change?
Odds are set according to the best guess of outcome.
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Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:
Oddsmakers had them as the 4th best odds because oddsmakers base those odds primarily on which team has the easiest schedule... that's why FSU was considered to have the best odds to make the playoff... but that has nothing to do with whether or not they think those teams are the 4 best in the country...
The pointspreads for these two matchups tell the story...
Yes the odds for a game are only relevant.
I would like to see the odds (from major odds-makers) of each team in the final eight against each other team, and use these odds to pick out the final four. I don't think Ohio State and FSU would have made it this year if this had been used.
The odds match well with the results, otherwise it would be easy to beat the books and it is not.
Just go against public perception all the time if you think odds are set according to public perception (which is not true). Have you seen those games where the public is betting heavily on one side while the odds don't change?
Odds are set according to the best guess of outcome.
Ohio State has played by far the weakest schedule of any of the 6 teams in contention . . . by a very wide margin. A 2-win Big 12 team > than a 7-win Big 10 team.
Ohio State played one legitimate team all season . . . Michigan State. That's pretty much it.
Please stop with the Big 10 hate.... Its getting to be a little too much
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Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:
Ohio State has played by far the weakest schedule of any of the 6 teams in contention . . . by a very wide margin. A 2-win Big 12 team > than a 7-win Big 10 team.
Ohio State played one legitimate team all season . . . Michigan State. That's pretty much it.
Please stop with the Big 10 hate.... Its getting to be a little too much
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