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Playoff virtually set

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Bama, OSU in regardless of this weeks results. Clem and Wash in with win. Michigan is next in line if either stumble. Next up would be Oklahoma, then Colorado

Big 10 winner does not have a way in.

I'm sure some may disagree but the writing is on the wall and metrics support it.
 
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Posted: #2
I agree.. if CLEMSON or Washington lose, I think Michigan gets in.. interested to see if Michigan is at 5 or 6 tomorrow.. I don't care what anyone says, Michigan would be WAY more competitive in the final four over PSU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma 
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Moonstormsnow:

I agree.. if CLEMSON or Washington lose, I think Michigan gets in.. interested to see if Michigan is at 5 or 6 tomorrow.. I don't care what anyone says, Michigan would be WAY more competitive in the final four over PSU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma 
I agree. I think it's clear the 4 best teams are Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Michigan.
 
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Posted: #4
I have to think that the committee will not be cheering harder against anyone more than Penn State this weekend.  If Penn State wins the Big 10, there is no way they can be left out even if both Clemson and Washington win their respective conferences.  It will leave the committee literally stuck in a circular catch-22...

Hypothetical conversation...

Penn State:  We won what is arguably the best conference in college football this year.
Committee:  Yeah sorry, but we just feel like there is a better representative (Ohio State) from the Big 10 than you.
Penn State:  But we beat them too h2h...
Committee: <crickets>

I mean seriously, how would the committee justify this.  I think it would basically discredit this whole notion of the "College Football Playoff' in what, it's 3rd year.  It's basically just as subjective as the Bowl system and National Championship game from before, just with 4 teams now instead of 2.

And I am by no means arguing that I think Penn State is a better team than Ohio State because I don't think they are...if they play that game 10 times I think Ohio State maybe wins 7 or 8 of them, but Penn State just happened to win that one.  I just don't see how the committee will be able to avoid this conundrum if Penn State wins.


 
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Posted: #5
What dcp said .   If they take oh st ahead of a conference champ Penn state then I'm out of this farce.  Kirk herbstreit is the biggest joke.   For the last 2  years he's been yapping about the importance of a conference championship and how every game has to matter.   Well not only does every game not matter (penn st vs oh state) but the big 10 conference championship is absolutely pointless.  Why r they playing it.   I'm waiting for a big upset in a conference championship (like fla beating Alabama ) to see what they do then
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by shiek:

What dcp said .   If they take oh st ahead of a conference champ Penn state then I'm out of this farce.  Kirk herbstreit is the biggest joke.   For the last 2  years he's been yapping about the importance of a conference championship and how every game has to matter.   Well not only does every game not matter (penn st vs oh state) but the big 10 conference championship is absolutely pointless.  Why r they playing it.   I'm waiting for a big upset in a conference championship (like fla beating Alabama ) to see what they do then

 Basically what this committee is saying is conference championships are meaningless. Whoever wins the BIG10 isn't getting in. If Alabama loses the SEC,  they still get in. So what is the point of these games? Alabama would actually be smart if they rested the starters after the first quarter to avoid injuries.  Win or lose who gives a garbage other than bragging rights on being conference championships. 
 
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Posted: #7
Some pretty interesting scenarios brewing.  Yeah if this played out that way, obviously they would be saying the conference championship game and essentially the conference champions are meaningless.

I think then if that is the case they should tweak the format again sooner rather than later in order to save face.  The logical solution for me would be to scrap these games, at least for the power 5 conferences.  They can still have conference play and declare a champion or co-champions based on that, and then expand the CFP to 8 teams, or 3 rounds of play-down.  Give all the teams a bye week after the regular season while the group of 5 can still play their championship games and then have the round of 8 teams play the week after, break for the holidays/exams, and then pick it back up during the regular bowl season.  Playing all the way to the championship would still result in no more than 15 games being played, plus takes the stigma away of leaving a power 5 conference champion out of the mix.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by dcp1985:

Some pretty interesting scenarios brewing.  Yeah if this played out that way, obviously they would be saying the conference championship game and essentially the conference champions are meaningless.

I think then if that is the case they should tweak the format again sooner rather than later in order to save face.  The logical solution for me would be to scrap these games, at least for the power 5 conferences.  They can still have conference play and declare a champion or co-champions based on that, and then expand the CFP to 8 teams, or 3 rounds of play-down.  Give all the teams a bye week after the regular season while the group of 5 can still play their championship games and then have the round of 8 teams play the week after, break for the holidays/exams, and then pick it back up during the regular bowl season.  Playing all the way to the championship would still result in no more than 15 games being played, plus takes the stigma away of leaving a power 5 conference champion out of the mix.


Some great points. What they should do to take out all biases and a selection committee is: The winner of each Power 5 conference gets in, end of story. No more committee chosing 4 teams. The 5 teams that make it are then ranked just on AP Poll, or a BCS ranking hybrid. What you would have is basically a one game play-in based on those rankings between the 4 and 5 seed. It's only adding one extra game to the current format. Then the Conference Championship games mean everything. No bitching and complaining about being left out. You win your conference or you shut up.

 
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Posted: #9
8 teams.  5 conf champions and 3 at large  based on a committee.

you have to keep the committee.  it's the way hoops has been done for years and it pays people (i assume) and no one wants to give up a paid position.....

it makes the conf. championship games very very very meaningful and conferences wont bother throwing the game (which we've seen with Oregon and OhioSt blowouts in games they needed to win convincingly)

and having 8 teams...or 7 games....means way more money for conferences and the NCAA and no one says no to money. 

round 1 is played the  week after conf. championship week and is played at the higher seeds home site (unless they can logistically work out 4 neutral sites which would be very difficult to do).

the semis and finals are played as they are currently.

the top 8 would be this year
Bama
OhioSt
Okla if they win
Wash/Col winner
PSU/Wisky winner
Michigan
Western Michigan if they win (come on...give Bama an easy round 1 :-)
Clemson/VT winner

who says no?

the obvious downside is more 5-7 teams in bowl games. meh
 
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Posted: #10
COMPLETELY DISAGREE  BROTHER 


SO MUCH FOOTBALL TO BE PLAYED THIS WEEKEND 

ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE 


BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #11
If Penn St wins and Clemson and Washington also win, then the Buckeyes should be out of the picture since PSu beat them heads up. 
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by dcp1985:

I have to think that the committee will not be cheering harder against anyone more than Penn State this weekend.  If Penn State wins the Big 10, there is no way they can be left out even if both Clemson and Washington win their respective conferences.  It will leave the committee literally stuck in a circular catch-22...

Hypothetical conversation...

Penn State:  We won what is arguably the best conference in college football this year.
Committee:  Yeah sorry, but we just feel like there is a better representative (Ohio State) from the Big 10 than you.
Penn State:  But we beat them too h2h...
Committee:

I mean seriously, how would the committee justify this.  I think it would basically discredit this whole notion of the "College Football Playoff' in what, it's 3rd year.  It's basically just as subjective as the Bowl system and National Championship game from before, just with 4 teams now instead of 2.

And I am by no means arguing that I think Penn State is a better team than Ohio State because I don't think they are...if they play that game 10 times I think Ohio State maybe wins 7 or 8 of them, but Penn State just happened to win that one.  I just don't see how the committee will be able to avoid this conundrum if Penn State wins.



So, if FL beats Bama they should get in over them, right? 
 
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Posted: #13
All great points guys but I believe the committee has shown that when teams have similar records, they will rely on the metrics over conf titles. This is why I believe Clem and Wash have everyone else "checkmated" with a win. Same applies to Michigan if one of them slips up.... The drop off in power ratings from #5 to #6 is fairly large.

If we follow this logic, it's difficult to envision 3 big10 teams getting in which is why I'd favor Oklahoma then Colorado if Clem/wash both go down.

There certainly is a lot of football left to be played but every teams path seems clear... At least IMO
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by nmate2ooo2:


So, if FL beats Bama they should get in over them, right? 

As unlikely as I think that is to occur, if it did happen I don't think it's exactly the same situation.  That would mean a 3-loss team in Florida (9-3) getting in over a previously undefeated (now 12-1) Alabama team that was clearly a cut above everybody else in the conference all season.  It might sound hypocritical but I think the "body of work" of the entire season would count for more in this case.  You could still look at the 2 conference teams Florida lost too (Arkanas and Tennessee) and say well Bama throttled those teams as well as their other wins.

It would be a lot closer to call in the Big 10 if Penn Sate wins because you'd be looking at a 11-1 team vs. an 11-2 team that also won the h2h matchup.  The other loss being an in-state rivalry game to a team that also took down Clemson.  I was merely trying to point out for Penn State what more can you do?  Win the conference...check...beat the team h2h that's getting preference over you...check.  Talk about a raw deal.
 
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Posted: #15
and then you look at the fluky mannor in which the game was won and also the strength of schedule that both teams played and you see thats these teams arent even in the same stratosphere

i think the committee learned a bi glesson last year when they felt obligated to put msu in the playoff when it was plain as day that ohio state was clearly 1a or 1b in the nation. and msu went out and got manhandled by bama. nobody wants to see penn state  get sodomized in the playoffs, although it would be fitting  
 
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Posted: #16
Playoff was always fools gold. They'll eventually "fix" it by making it worse. "Gotta settle it on the field," or some such.
 
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Posted: #17
Don't bet on it.  Big 12 was automatically 7 the first year until the conference championships games were played - the things changed. If Penn State wins, do not be surprised to see them ahead of Ohio State. Ohio State is better in my opinion, but the past committees have set  precedence - conference champions in conference championship games get in.  Will be very interesting to see if still go that way. Some different committee members now - Not sure if they dye was cast in recent years for future committees to follow or if they can go out on their own.  Best 4 teams I my opinion:
Alabama
Ohio State
Clemson
Michigan

The Pac 12 blows.
 
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Posted: #18
Sorry about all the typos.  Apparently don't believe in proofreading.
 
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Posted: #19
Jesus you clowns have zero foresight

If Clemson/Wash lose, B10 winner is in over Mich 100%

The committee only has them at #5 right now because you can't put Wisc there over them when Mich beat them. That changes

No chance a 2 loss Mich gets in over 2 loss B10 Champ. Then you would have 2 B10 teams in the top 4 and the B10 Champ out?

lol

The credibility of the committee will be gone forever
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

Jesus you clowns have zero foresight If Clemson/Wash lose, B10 winner is in over Mich 100% The committee only has them at #5 right now because you can't put Wisc there over them when Mich beat them. That changesNo chance a 2 loss Mich gets in over 2 loss B10 Champ. Then you would have 2 B10 teams in the top 4 and the B10 Champ out? lol The credibility of the committee will be gone forever


Problem is mich would be double digit fav over psu and wisc. Committe chairman already laid the groundwork this evening, stating over and over that their job is to get the 4 BEST teams. If given the chance, I find it hard to believe the committee won't match up bama-mich and I wouldn't begrudge them...
 
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Posted: #21
how long has it been since the big 10 er 12 has been this competitive?  Clemson and Washington win their in. Penn st and Wisconsin winner should be in and Ohio St out but pigs will fly before that happens.
 
 
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Posted: #22
AS OF TODAY, MICHIGAN (RANKED #5 IN THE CFP RANKINGS) WOULD GET IN IF CLEMSON OR WASHINGTON LOSES THIS WEEKEND

ARE THEY DESERVING, PROBABLY NOT BECAUSE THEY LOST TWICE IN THEIR LAST THREE GAMES BUT TIME WILL TELL COME THIS SUNDAY EVENING
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