So i will sum this up and try make it short, been betting for years, only got serious around 2021, very indepth models projected spreads vs vegas etc.
Since then, with a bankroll of $30,000 AUD playing 1-5 unit plays, i am hitting around 68% ATS... BUT!! i usually buy 1-2 points, eg: +1.5 to +3. -5,5 down to 4. etc ... -7 to -6.5 and so on ...
This has saved my ass plenty of times (Dallas v Giants NFL other night) now .. i get the idea of seasoned veterans saying this will hurt you in the long run etc..
But upon calculating my first few years, if i dont buy points i would be hitting around 54% and would profit around 30 units, (big if ....) could be less then 54
But by buying points i am more around 65-68% and would result in a profit of 26.5/27 units
What is the big deal in a 4 unit ROI difference since buying points has saved me a lot and i could realistically be less then 54% if i dont? or worse.. in the negative...
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
So i will sum this up and try make it short, been betting for years, only got serious around 2021, very indepth models projected spreads vs vegas etc.
Since then, with a bankroll of $30,000 AUD playing 1-5 unit plays, i am hitting around 68% ATS... BUT!! i usually buy 1-2 points, eg: +1.5 to +3. -5,5 down to 4. etc ... -7 to -6.5 and so on ...
This has saved my ass plenty of times (Dallas v Giants NFL other night) now .. i get the idea of seasoned veterans saying this will hurt you in the long run etc..
But upon calculating my first few years, if i dont buy points i would be hitting around 54% and would profit around 30 units, (big if ....) could be less then 54
But by buying points i am more around 65-68% and would result in a profit of 26.5/27 units
What is the big deal in a 4 unit ROI difference since buying points has saved me a lot and i could realistically be less then 54% if i dont? or worse.. in the negative...
yes correct, but that is just assuming i hit 54% without buying points.. it could be worse.. not a risk i want to take when my bets range from $300-$1500 AUD
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@the1toturn2
yes correct, but that is just assuming i hit 54% without buying points.. it could be worse.. not a risk i want to take when my bets range from $300-$1500 AUD
What is the sample size for this experiment? A lot of books will severely overcharge you to buy points. You are likely just running hot over a small sample
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What is the sample size for this experiment? A lot of books will severely overcharge you to buy points. You are likely just running hot over a small sample
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