All Forums | College Football

Question on line movement for college games

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 1103
Posts: 14
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 226
Posted: #1

I’m looking to change when I bet during the week for this season. But I haven’t paid enough attention in the past to when the lines move and settle each week. So I’m wondering if I have been hurting myself in the past by picking bad times to make my wagers.

For those who grab the opening lines, or bet mid week, or bet last minute, what is your experience with the movement? Are there certain days or times that have the most or least movement? Thanks for any insights. 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2015
Posts: 3280
Posted: #2

Hey bud! I'm by far no professional at this gambling stuff, but one thing ive realized over a few years is don't worry so much about how quick you can get a line, how good a number you can get unless you have really studied the bet and team first. In most cases if you are on the right side of the bet you will win. Of course teams cross key numbers sometimes 3-7-10-14 ect. but most of the time if you are on the right team you will win regardless if you got your line when the lined opened or closed.  Good luck bud!!!!!

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2007
Posts: 10153
Posted: #3
waiting until LATE in the week...seeing who likes what....using ONE book only....basically makes it impossible to win money in the LONG TERM...........BUT YET you just watch....guys will pop in and argue FOR that 'strategy'.....................

you have to plan at least a week / preferably 2-3 in advance......

eg.   let's say you have identified the HOKIES....as a team to play weeks 1-4 or so.....
  * let's say you already know you're gonna play them week 2 vs OLD D.....who kicked the crap outta VT LY and starting over this year basically

SO.....you MUST PLAY THE FIRST NUMBER YOU SEE
  * SUNDAY....somewhere between 12-4pE on BetOnline.....around 6-7p E most others

It ain't going down.....practically impossible......waiting to bet VT at a HIGHER NUMBER screams to the world you are a MORON

Let's say you lost your mind and wanted to take Old D.....
  * then you would WAIT......as long as possible

IF...the Hokies handle BC / Old D whoops up on the mighty Spartans ....it might look sumpin' like this

SUN  BetOnline 12:00p     VT -23  (seriously)
                           12:00p + 5 sec ha VT -25
                           12:01p    VT- 26
                            1:00p     VT-27........
          
          Bet Cris      6:00p    VT -27' 
          Bookmaker
          5Dimes ++        

                            8:00p     VT -28'

MON                                  VT -30
TUES                                 VT -32
  * most tip sheets come out here thru Thursday....usually you see some movement .....Gold Sheet / Steele etc.... 

WED                                  VT -33
  * usually line settles in here......as pro's wait for joe's to drive the line up further ha

FRI/SAT                             VT-35
  * here is when most Covers chumps / Hokie fans will bet ...."they'll cover the 35 anyway !"....if you like the dog....you have to anticipate 'sharps' hitting the inflated # at some point / line dropping so careful.....checking casino betting helps you get an idea of what might happen on offshore books  ..............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2007
Posts: 10153
Posted: #4
BTW.....just throwing out those numbers....probably opens higher unless Hokies struggle / lose to BC......OD destroys Norfolk St
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2011
Posts: 7891
Posted: #5
B.A. with some good advice as always!! 

In general, if I have an eye on a team that I know will be favorite, and even a public favorite, I'll try to get in early before it goes up, same for an over I really like when I know I won't be alone.  

If I like a team that opens at +8, but I'm slacking and missed that line and now it's +5.5, I'll almost always pass as the value is gone. Yes, they may still cover, but when you lose that much value, it becomes -EV long term.  (same even if not moving through a key number). 

I'm definitely not a pro at this though, and completely fine with that, so take my opinion for what it's worth.  


 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2007
Posts: 10153
Posted: #6
It's REALLY a matter of not being a dumbazz....and making life easier on yourself


CONTROL THE THINGS YOU CAN - FORGET THOSE YOU CANNOT


By not (really) trying to win money.....you take all the PRESSURE off yourself....."man if I only had the time / wanted to......I could kill it !!!!"  ................



Hell......we have several guys every year.....that will

a.  sleep till noon > watch NFL
b.  check out lines after last NFL afternoon game over
c.  actually ACCUSE the guys that GOT UP EARLY > prepared to hit early numbers > AND SHARED this with others  ....of making them up / CHEATING  
   note:  same guys will complain when they lose....maybe claim that games are RIGGED ......a conspiracy against them personally !!
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 226
Posted: #7

Thanks for the great write up BA. That's perfect and better than I had hoped for. Best of luck this season.

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2002
Posts: 12927
Posted: #8
"TUES                                 VT -32
  * most tip sheets come out here thru Thursday....usually you see some movement .....Gold Sheet / Steele etc.... "

I remember when Dr Bob used to move lines several points every Tuesday.

Good write-up BA, but you forgot to mention the "double-reverse fade the public line movement" angle
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2019
Posts: 1136
Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

waiting until LATE in the week...seeing who likes what....using ONE book only....basically makes it impossible to win money in the LONG TERM...........BUT YET you just watch....guys will pop in and argue FOR that 'strategy'.....................

you have to plan at least a week / preferably 2-3 in advance......

eg.   let's say you have identified the HOKIES....as a team to play weeks 1-4 or so.....
  * let's say you already know you're gonna play them week 2 vs OLD D.....who kicked the crap outta VT LY and starting over this year basically

SO.....you MUST PLAY THE FIRST NUMBER YOU SEE
  * SUNDAY....somewhere between 12-4pE on BetOnline.....around 6-7p E most others

It ain't going down.....practically impossible......waiting to bet VT at a HIGHER NUMBER screams to the world you are a MORON

Let's say you lost your mind and wanted to take Old D.....
  * then you would WAIT......as long as possible

IF...the Hokies handle BC / Old D whoops up on the mighty Spartans ....it might look sumpin' like this

SUN  BetOnline 12:00p     VT -23  (seriously)
                           12:00p + 5 sec ha VT -25
                           12:01p    VT- 26
                            1:00p     VT-27........
          
          Bet Cris      6:00p    VT -27' 
          Bookmaker
          5Dimes ++        

                            8:00p     VT -28'

MON                                  VT -30
TUES                                 VT -32
  * most tip sheets come out here thru Thursday....usually you see some movement .....Gold Sheet / Steele etc.... 

WED                                  VT -33
  * usually line settles in here......as pro's wait for joe's to drive the line up further ha

FRI/SAT                             VT-35
  * here is when most Covers chumps / Hokie fans will bet ...."they'll cover the 35 anyway !"....if you like the dog....you have to anticipate 'sharps' hitting the inflated # at some point / line dropping so careful.....checking casino betting helps you get an idea of what might happen on offshore books  ..............

Maybe I missed something, but in that situation, you said wait until later in the week to see who likes who. 

But if you wait until later in the week wouldn't Old D be the play or is it a no play? And with the knowledge that the line is going to move like that would it not be better to get Va tech early in the week as soon as it comes out?

Thanks
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2007
Posts: 10153
Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Ifan_Bates:


Maybe I missed something, but in that situation, you said wait until later in the week to see who likes who. 

But if you wait until later in the week wouldn't Old D be the play or is it a no play? And with the knowledge that the line is going to move like that would it not be better to get Va tech early in the week as soon as it comes out?

Thanks

naw man I was saying.....the KNUCKLEHEADS / or simple recreational types do that...."we" smart folks know better......
  $  I wouldn't take Old D at any #


eg.    interesting line issue in one game I like......

Rutgers currently 14' v UMass....(Rutgers should murder these boys) 

line opened at 10-11 offshore.......settled in at 14-15 say June 10th or so.....went to 15-15' in spots.....dropped SOON afterwards

SO...if you like Rutgers....do you take 14' now.....or maybe buy down to 14?.........NO / HELL NO

a.  this one an all or nuthin' game for Rutgers ....they show up big (in the only 'easy' W on their schedule).....>> win SU / ATS...or lose
  >> so 14'-15' or so probably no matter here 

b.  if played last year....line woulda been 5-6' or so.....so already inflated a bit....I was thinking 10-12 max
  >> SO......IMO it doesn't cross 16-17.....but rather is more likely to DROP to 14 / 13' or so.......(if you like Rutgers....wait for 14 / 13')


New UMass HC Bell is super positive / energetic (PJ Fleck starter kit kinda).......so we (should) have all kinds of 'positivity' coming outta that camp......WHICH PEOPLE INCREDIBLY BELIEVE....which might help line drop.........
   $$  we have seen NUMEROUS threads here "why would a HC lie / I believe !!"...........WHAT?!.....................



Meanwhile....unless a QB like TT (started vs Horns > got hurt) guy McClane Carter is just tearing it up......clearly emerges....not much to drive line up .... ...UMass loses most ALL their key players from a BAD team .....and excellent HC in Whipple....clearly in a 'year ZERO' situation......starting OVER....learning / building culture Bell wants.....plus UMass has 4 'winnable' games on deck....then 2 more later after .....Rutgers next solid shot a W is 10/26 yikes at Liberty......probably a tough W at that...........

(2016-17 played the hell outta SCaro...Tenn....Miss St.....whooped App St etc....)


The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2007
Posts: 10153
Posted: #11
(2016-17 played the hell outta SCaro...Tenn....Miss St.....whooped App St etc....)

c/p error ha.....under Whipple UMass had moments as a dog ....8-2 ATS run as road dog at one point
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2019
Posts: 1136
Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


naw man I was saying.....the KNUCKLEHEADS / or simple recreational types do that...."we" smart folks know better......
  $  I wouldn't take Old D at any #


eg.    interesting line issue in one game I like......

Rutgers currently 14' v UMass....(Rutgers should murder these boys) 

line opened at 10-11 offshore.......settled in at 14-15 say June 10th or so.....went to 15-15' in spots.....dropped SOON afterwards

SO...if you like Rutgers....do you take 14' now.....or maybe buy down to 14?.........NO / HELL NO

a.  this one an all or nuthin' game for Rutgers ....they show up big (in the only 'easy' W on their schedule).....>> win SU / ATS...or lose
  >> so 14'-15' or so probably no matter here 

b.  if played last year....line woulda been 5-6' or so.....so already inflated a bit....I was thinking 10-12 max
  >> SO......IMO it doesn't cross 16-17.....but rather is more likely to DROP to 14 / 13' or so.......(if you like Rutgers....wait for 14 / 13')


New UMass HC Bell is super positive / energetic (PJ Fleck starter kit kinda).......so we (should) have all kinds of 'positivity' coming outta that camp......WHICH PEOPLE INCREDIBLY BELIEVE....which might help line drop.........
   $$  we have seen NUMEROUS threads here "why would a HC lie / I believe !!"...........WHAT?!.....................



Meanwhile....unless a QB like TT (started vs Horns > got hurt) guy McClane Carter is just tearing it up......clearly emerges....not much to drive line up .... ...UMass loses most ALL their key players from a BAD team .....and excellent HC in Whipple....clearly in a 'year ZERO' situation......starting OVER....learning / building culture Bell wants.....plus UMass has 4 'winnable' games on deck....then 2 more later after .....Rutgers next solid shot a W is 10/26 yikes at Liberty......probably a tough W at that...........

(2016-17 played the hell outta SCaro...Tenn....Miss St.....whooped App St etc....)



Oh ok, I get it, thanks for clearing that up  
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2013
Posts: 949
Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by hokieal:

I’m looking to change when I bet during the week for this season. But I haven’t paid enough attention in the past to when the lines move and settle each week. So I’m wondering if I have been hurting myself in the past by picking bad times to make my wagers. For those who grab the opening lines, or bet mid week, or bet last minute, what is your experience with the movement? Are there certain days or times that have the most or least movement? Thanks for any insights.

So many bettors treat this as a passive endeavor. Bookie Assassin is a savant when it comes to analyzing football lines because he does his work in advance and is often able to see around the corners. If you, or anyone, are going to be successful at this, you absolutely must have your own angles, do your own handicapping and be able to spot and bet a good number when you see it. The answer to your question is - all of those methodologies apply! You just need to know when to implement them on any particular contest you are considering. 

Bettors do not understand this one simple fact of handicapping, which is - finding value. If you always get the best number you are doing this correctly. If you always get the worst number - your money will go to money heaven. Simple as that. Thus, do your work and look ahead, trust your handicapping, and have the courage of your convictions when you see that great number - it probably won't be around for long. 

 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2002
Posts: 54462
Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

waiting until LATE in the week...seeing who likes what....using ONE book only....basically makes it impossible to win money in the LONG TERM...........BUT YET you just watch....guys will pop in and argue FOR that 'strategy'.....................

you have to plan at least a week / preferably 2-3 in advance......

eg.   let's say you have identified the HOKIES....as a team to play weeks 1-4 or so.....
  * let's say you already know you're gonna play them week 2 vs OLD D.....who kicked the crap outta VT LY and starting over this year basically

SO.....you MUST PLAY THE FIRST NUMBER YOU SEE
  * SUNDAY....somewhere between 12-4pE on BetOnline.....around 6-7p E most others

It ain't going down.....practically impossible......waiting to bet VT at a HIGHER NUMBER screams to the world you are a MORON

Let's say you lost your mind and wanted to take Old D.....
  * then you would WAIT......as long as possible

IF...the Hokies handle BC / Old D whoops up on the mighty Spartans ....it might look sumpin' like this

SUN  BetOnline 12:00p     VT -23  (seriously)
                           12:00p + 5 sec ha VT -25
                           12:01p    VT- 26
                            1:00p     VT-27........
          
          Bet Cris      6:00p    VT -27' 
          Bookmaker
          5Dimes ++        

                            8:00p     VT -28'

MON                                  VT -30
TUES                                 VT -32
  * most tip sheets come out here thru Thursday....usually you see some movement .....Gold Sheet / Steele etc.... 

WED                                  VT -33
  * usually line settles in here......as pro's wait for joe's to drive the line up further ha

FRI/SAT                             VT-35
  * here is when most Covers chumps / Hokie fans will bet ...."they'll cover the 35 anyway !"....if you like the dog....you have to anticipate 'sharps' hitting the inflated # at some point / line dropping so careful.....checking casino betting helps you get an idea of what might happen on offshore books  ..............
Then you can get into some wicked advanced level moves like taking VT -23 on the open and Old D +30 or better (obviously ya gotta be willing to risk the juice for a middle attempt). ONLY way you can make that type of play is to do your homework. If you think the true line is 32/33/34 and bet online throws out 23 then you pounce....the market will correct the number (in theory).Games like this there are some variables....but oddsmakers arent dumb....you see a number you think is a mistake/trap then you better analyze the game again. YOU missed something. You think a road team should be -7 and they open the game at a pick em??? Red flag time.....

BA 
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.