Some small success was divined here last week (6-5, .545). That mostly holds with the full-season system performance (75-61-3, .551). The box knows only incoming data, and has not a single-shred of bad-beat prejudice. Nor does it carry the opposite burden of cherished teams. This week, in typical rote fashion, the box likes all of these:
1) Buffalo(+2.5)/EasternMich W
2) Rice(-6.5)/UAB
3) OhioUniv (+2.5)/Toledo W
4) Oklahoma(+14)/Alabama
5) Florida(+10.5)/Mississippi
6) AirForce(+4)/Nevada
7) LA-Monroe(+3.5)/ArkansasSt
8) ColoradoSt(+3)/FresnoState
9) EastCarolina(+3)/NorthTexas
10) NewMexicoSt(+4)/MiddleTenn
11) SanDiegoSt(+4)/UtahState
12) WestKentucky(+1)/Liberty
13) Marshall (+2.5)/OldDominion
14) GeorgiaSouth(+2.5)/CoastalCar
15) SamHouston(+ 6)/JacksonvilleSt
16) NoIllinois(+3)/MiamiOhio L
Save for just one; all dogs. Rank value has taken a backseat since the algorithm was adjusted six weeks ago. Performance during that span has been .652 (43-23-1).
I know tech-talk is a hard sell on the forum, generating few replies, but I wonder if anyone employs an early-week quantitative handle on point spread magnitude. As in -- when to strategically hold, and strategically place (???). For example, the most compelling dog-hold level would be +2.5. And conversely, a timely persuasive favorite-bet would be -6 or -6.5. The power aspect of this logic feathers out with larger line magnitudes, but such strategy can be dollar-return significant over the course of a full season. Most pronounced of course, when the player has volume ability.
Our concluding two wager-weeks in 2024 will be bursting with opportunity. This week we have no less than 61 on the board. And next week (Thanksgiving) will have all 134 FBS teams in action; a full slate of 67 games. That will be a veritable “opportunity bonanza” for techies able to evaluate each and every contest!
Good luck,
TheKingfish
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