No systemic value here last week; slammed at 3-9 (.250). For the season thus far, it’s 16-17 (.485). Not good. Looking for that proverbial bounce, my rote system likes each one of these: 1) Purdue(+4)/OregonSt 2) SoMiss(+6)/JacksonvilleSt 3) FloridaAtlantic(+1.5)/Connecticut 4) Tulsa(+3)/LouisianaTech 5) Houston(+3.5)/Cincinnati 6) Duke(-14.5)/MiddleTenn 7) GeorgiaTech(+10.5)/Louisville 8) Tulane(-3)/LA-Lafayette 9) Oklahoma(+7)/Tennessee 10) BrighamYoung(+7)/KansasState 11) California(+2.5)/FloridaSt 12) OklahomaSt(+2.5)/Utah
Hey, my weekly post wouldn’t be complete without some “boring” technical stuff. Was flirting with a middle this week (Oklahoma State). The Cowboys were -2.5 when I capped Monday morning. At that point, they were a solid Home Fav nationally. During a rather-strange opposite-spike Tuesday morning, I bet them at +2.5.
Anecdotally, lines often move-back to their opening value by week's end. That kind of movement suggests the weekend Wise Men (& Women) were right, and an overreacting less-knowing public moved it without cause. Of course, that’s all Human Administrator humble opinion…..
Anyway, the Boys were at -2.5 nationally (-3 in some places) yesterday and this morning. That's a 5+ point gap. My trigger gap for betting middles is >= 4. If this one continues on that path -- I'll have an opportunity. As you may know, the bettor loses only the juice on one bet if it fails to middle. Intrinsically, it’s a gambit that can approach 25-1 in reward/risk, depending on the juice.
Players love their Home Favorites, and tend to grow the number as game time approaches. This one advantageously goes late; at 4:00 EST Saturday. So, I will keep an eye on it for a potential Utah place. Betting at -109 odds, such a wager would have a 22.2 to 1 payoff. Since 2018, I have attempted six (6) times. Hit it once. Fun stuff when the opportunity presents itself.....
Alas……..as I write this (and checking my rampant enthusiasm into the coatroom), those Cowboys have reverted to being a PK. Go figure! Given this one’s demonstrated volatility, I will still be watching on Saturday (3:59 EST).
54 on the board this week; 52 last week. Still a growing abundance of opportunity for us. Good luck, TheKingfish
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
No systemic value here last week; slammed at 3-9 (.250). For the season thus far, it’s 16-17 (.485). Not good. Looking for that proverbial bounce, my rote system likes each one of these: 1) Purdue(+4)/OregonSt 2) SoMiss(+6)/JacksonvilleSt 3) FloridaAtlantic(+1.5)/Connecticut 4) Tulsa(+3)/LouisianaTech 5) Houston(+3.5)/Cincinnati 6) Duke(-14.5)/MiddleTenn 7) GeorgiaTech(+10.5)/Louisville 8) Tulane(-3)/LA-Lafayette 9) Oklahoma(+7)/Tennessee 10) BrighamYoung(+7)/KansasState 11) California(+2.5)/FloridaSt 12) OklahomaSt(+2.5)/Utah
Hey, my weekly post wouldn’t be complete without some “boring” technical stuff. Was flirting with a middle this week (Oklahoma State). The Cowboys were -2.5 when I capped Monday morning. At that point, they were a solid Home Fav nationally. During a rather-strange opposite-spike Tuesday morning, I bet them at +2.5.
Anecdotally, lines often move-back to their opening value by week's end. That kind of movement suggests the weekend Wise Men (& Women) were right, and an overreacting less-knowing public moved it without cause. Of course, that’s all Human Administrator humble opinion…..
Anyway, the Boys were at -2.5 nationally (-3 in some places) yesterday and this morning. That's a 5+ point gap. My trigger gap for betting middles is >= 4. If this one continues on that path -- I'll have an opportunity. As you may know, the bettor loses only the juice on one bet if it fails to middle. Intrinsically, it’s a gambit that can approach 25-1 in reward/risk, depending on the juice.
Players love their Home Favorites, and tend to grow the number as game time approaches. This one advantageously goes late; at 4:00 EST Saturday. So, I will keep an eye on it for a potential Utah place. Betting at -109 odds, such a wager would have a 22.2 to 1 payoff. Since 2018, I have attempted six (6) times. Hit it once. Fun stuff when the opportunity presents itself.....
Alas……..as I write this (and checking my rampant enthusiasm into the coatroom), those Cowboys have reverted to being a PK. Go figure! Given this one’s demonstrated volatility, I will still be watching on Saturday (3:59 EST).
54 on the board this week; 52 last week. Still a growing abundance of opportunity for us. Good luck, TheKingfish
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