No help here last week (5-8, .385). For the season, it’s 21-25 (.457). Not good. Turning that big crank; the box likes these:
1) Buffalo(+5.5)/Connecticut
2) WesternMich(+3.5)/Marshall
3) SouthFlorida(+5 )/Tulane
4) UTSA(+3)/EastCarolina
5) GeorgiaSouth(+3.5)/GeorgiaSt
6) LA-Lafayette(+4)/WakeForest
7) SanDiegoSt(+3)/CentralMich
8) TCU(+2)/Kansas
9) NorthCarolina(+3)/Duke
10) Washington(+3)/Rutgers
11) NotreDame(-5)/Louisville
12) Purdue(+10)/Nebraska
There has been some slim systemic rank-value in the top three (6-6. 500), but as you can see – just barely enough to build on. However, there’s always some “tech” to talk about while the box is contemplating better things to come.
I typically bet my Home Favorites early and my Away Dogs late, but is there solid line-movement reasoning behind that? The Home Dog/Away Fav is a more nuanced match-up, so not so straight forward for me.
I had come onto that method from a long-ago data analysis. Since it had been a while when I last ran the numbers, I queried the 10-year database (2013-23, 6844 games). I record both start and end lines, which makes such an analysis possible.
End result? My longtime casual operating-assumption was (blatantly) false. Regardless if the game starts as an AF/HD or an AD/HF, there was zero-movement exactly 15 percent of the time -- with directional movement equally divided. Indeed…….equally divided.
Yes, boring. But maybe that feeds into a question a few players wondered about (???). 53 on the board this week; 54 last week. There will be a pullback on that volume next week, but still great opportunity for all of us this time around.
Good luck,
TheKingfish
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