SATURDAY GIFT

Gonna post a couple plays, which I have not done in CFB thus far, not because I seek attention, but because I believe in them.  Since there's not a whole lot of time until kickoff, lets get right to it:

PENN STATE (-2.5):  Nebraska is NOT good, hasn't played many games (2), and are playing a desperate Penn State team.  Problem is, to date, Penn State hasn't been good either (they only have one more game in hand than Nebraska).  IF they have any chance of doing anything with regards to salvaging the season, it starts now.  Literally in about 20 minutes from the time I'm drafting this.  I believe they have the better playmakers, coach, and, with little home field advantage, they will get their first W.  I'm going to throw out the trends here which do NOT support a Penn State selection, but I will take the better team with better value.  I think :).

MARSHALL (-23.5):  Was very close to posting Cincinnati last night, then saw some other cappers on opposite sides, started overthinking, and laid off the game.  Not gonna do it again.  BLOWOUT CITY....Marshall doesn't operate like other FBS teams in that they keep scoring.  Middle Tennessee doesn't operate like a very good team to say the least.  Leaning on the OVER here but with the number a shade under 24 for Marshall, I think they will get it done handily.  I have them winning by at least 28 so this should give me a buffer if MTSU can get a couple TD's.  Still think Marshall gets 42 on their own.

Looking at a couple more plays, will post throughout the day as numbers adjust or things progress.  Let's keep this productive, have a solid day, and roll into another profitable week.   As always, tail or fade, good luck to all.

Agree and on both.

ADDING:

UTEP (+7):  I really like this spot for UTEP, they are also a respectable 3-1 ATS on the road this year, and play a team they are very familiar with.  Trends also point to 7-0 ATS for the ROAD team in this tilt.  Total for the game is somewhat low, making me think this should be played as a low scoring affair.  Given the history and what both teams have in store for one another, I will gladly take the 7 points.  I realize this isn't a highly publicized affair, but then again I don't love those types of games in CFB as it seems the lines are always somewhat sharper with so much of the public playing those games.  I believe this will finish somewhere in the vicinity of a 3-6 point difference, not much off the line, but I also think it can be UTEP who ends up on top.

Good luck to everyone who has come into this thread.  Let's all be winners again today.

Can I give that gift back

love your nfl posts

wasnt in love with your first 2 college games 

saw them late and didnt play 

really like UTEP

think u have a winner there 

have a great day

yeah the Penn State play is brutal.  Marshall still has a decent shot though losing their top receiver is unforeseen.  no excuses just didn't think Penn State was this horrible.  i guess we can say the same about Michigan State as well.  obviously not the way i wanted to start the day.

I like UTEP too!!

well at least Penn State came back, but man, they are always digging holes for themselves!

PENN STATE (-2.5) L 

too early to call Marshall (-23.5) so will be back after the game wraps.  but I will add another upcoming play:

well, as they said that, they finished them off.  I actually am going to pat myself on the back for calling a 28 point deficit which it will end up being.  I guess the analytics do work.

MARSHALL (-23.5) W

added play:

OVER 54.5 (BAYLOR/TEXAS TECH):  Neither team is going anywhere and neither defense is really stopping anyone.  Baylor has a solid offense and I think the matchup here is right for them to potentially get a road win, but to at least put up 28 points.  Since Texas Tech is also capable of scoring (they average 29.6 points and over 30 at home) I think this is a STRONG play.  Not to mention, the OVER is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings so there's that going as well.

UTEP still pending, but hoping to see everyone at the window.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all.

college football is not for you. you should quit

Busy afternoon, so no time for the write ups on picks below.  Have to say, not sure what happened in the UTEP/UTSA game?!?  UTEP was winning 21-17 and now they are still stuck on 21 but UTSA has 45?!?  How bad of a coach does UTEP have that he can't stop this.  I think the UTEP defense must have flat out given up.  No excuses, but frustrated posting a loser that should have cashed.  I guess it could be worse as I was super confused why Stanford was favored?!?  Do people not realize how bad their coach is...same thing every year.  Run the ball, no QB, leaky defense, and losses mount.  Just was watching that game for a minute and they have a baffling offense.

Anyways, love these two night games, currently 1-2 on the day as I'm counting UTEP as a loss, they should be embarrassed.  So sorry to anyone who tailed that play.

OVER 62 (FSU/NCSU)

OVER 51 (WIS/MIC)

Nice call on Penn State! Disagree with your "they have better coaching" take. And funny how you claim Nebraska is NOT good, even though they have only played two games and those two games were against one of the best teams in the country and an underrated Northwestern team. Penn State was desperate? Well, you know what....Nebraska was desperate too! 

      Keep posting. Like your write ups 9win or lose). Taking in lot of views and appreciate your time.

Good luck tonight la