Looking for a consensus opinion from long-time sports gamblers
Betting moneylines: what do you feel is the "practical MAXIMUM" moneyline odds you would risk (to win $100) - actually risking real money; not merely "posting picks" on a sports-forum - if risking those moneylines bets on a semi-frequent basis?
IOW, what is the practical cutoff line, above which you would definitely NOT recommended exceeding for yourself or advise to others?
TIA
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Looking for a consensus opinion from long-time sports gamblers
Betting moneylines: what do you feel is the "practical MAXIMUM" moneyline odds you would risk (to win $100) - actually risking real money; not merely "posting picks" on a sports-forum - if risking those moneylines bets on a semi-frequent basis?
IOW, what is the practical cutoff line, above which you would definitely NOT recommended exceeding for yourself or advise to others?
Looking for a consensus opinion from long-time sports gamblers Betting moneylines: what do you feel is the "practical MAXIMUM" moneyline odds you would risk (to win $100) - actually risking real money; not merely "posting picks" on a sports-forum - if risking those moneylines bets on a semi-frequent basis? IOW, what is the practical cutoff line, above which you would definitely NOT recommended exceeding for yourself or advise to others? TIA
So what range of high ML odds would you fellas typical avoid?
Like anything over - ______ ?
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Quote Originally Posted by baish2012:
Looking for a consensus opinion from long-time sports gamblers Betting moneylines: what do you feel is the "practical MAXIMUM" moneyline odds you would risk (to win $100) - actually risking real money; not merely "posting picks" on a sports-forum - if risking those moneylines bets on a semi-frequent basis? IOW, what is the practical cutoff line, above which you would definitely NOT recommended exceeding for yourself or advise to others? TIA
So what range of high ML odds would you fellas typical avoid?
-150 is about as high as you should go....beyond that, if you dont think they can cover the spread, theres a decent chance they can lose the game....so if youre laying more than -150 (which still isnt a good idea), then you have to be right about 70% of the time (or more depending on how high the ML is).....Thats a tall task and almost guaranteed impossible long term. Sure, you might go 10-0 betting favorite MLs .....but it will bite you in the long run....
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-150 is about as high as you should go....beyond that, if you dont think they can cover the spread, theres a decent chance they can lose the game....so if youre laying more than -150 (which still isnt a good idea), then you have to be right about 70% of the time (or more depending on how high the ML is).....Thats a tall task and almost guaranteed impossible long term. Sure, you might go 10-0 betting favorite MLs .....but it will bite you in the long run....
If you are taking college then I am not a big believer in taking moneylines with favorites. Too many games end up off the spread by more than 6 pts. I would not go above -200 and if you do take it I would split with spread. Otherwise the odds get you in long run. If u take 3 teams -200 you could go 2-1 and break even to where the 2 wins both covered so instead of winning u break even. You basically double your losses if you lose. People like to do it for comfort - it sucks to take a game -6 and have them win by 3. For it to pay off you need to have the game win by less than the spread about 15% of time - this is at -200. I think at times it’s ok but don’t recommend it frequently. It’s same for teasers. Doing a fav ML parlay can be ok if you include a few high favs. I would go the other way - take the spread then bet 25% of that amount on an alt line giving pts. Like taking a team -3.5 and -9.5 - the 9.5 would pay around plus 175. Same with dogs - straight bet and 25% on ML. Take adv of odds - most coll games end up off the spread by 6 or more. This is why books like fan duel give better odds for college teasers.
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@baish2012
If you are taking college then I am not a big believer in taking moneylines with favorites. Too many games end up off the spread by more than 6 pts. I would not go above -200 and if you do take it I would split with spread. Otherwise the odds get you in long run. If u take 3 teams -200 you could go 2-1 and break even to where the 2 wins both covered so instead of winning u break even. You basically double your losses if you lose. People like to do it for comfort - it sucks to take a game -6 and have them win by 3. For it to pay off you need to have the game win by less than the spread about 15% of time - this is at -200. I think at times it’s ok but don’t recommend it frequently. It’s same for teasers. Doing a fav ML parlay can be ok if you include a few high favs. I would go the other way - take the spread then bet 25% of that amount on an alt line giving pts. Like taking a team -3.5 and -9.5 - the 9.5 would pay around plus 175. Same with dogs - straight bet and 25% on ML. Take adv of odds - most coll games end up off the spread by 6 or more. This is why books like fan duel give better odds for college teasers.
My example this year was doing a "can't lose favorite ML parley" 4 big favorites brought it down to 500 to win 100. Was looking solid until A&M beat Alabama. So there's always that.
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My example this year was doing a "can't lose favorite ML parley" 4 big favorites brought it down to 500 to win 100. Was looking solid until A&M beat Alabama. So there's always that.
-150 is about as high as you should go....beyond that, if you dont think they can cover the spread, theres a decent chance they can lose the game....so if youre laying more than -150 (which still isnt a good idea), then you have to be right about 70% of the time (or more depending on how high the ML is).....Thats a tall task and almost guaranteed impossible long term. Sure, you might go 10-0 betting favorite MLs .....but it will bite you in the long run....
Excellent points!
Thank you, sir!
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
-150 is about as high as you should go....beyond that, if you dont think they can cover the spread, theres a decent chance they can lose the game....so if youre laying more than -150 (which still isnt a good idea), then you have to be right about 70% of the time (or more depending on how high the ML is).....Thats a tall task and almost guaranteed impossible long term. Sure, you might go 10-0 betting favorite MLs .....but it will bite you in the long run....
@baish2012 If you are taking college then I am not a big believer in taking moneylines with favorites. Too many games end up off the spread by more than 6 pts. I would not go above -200
That's what I was looking for. Thank you. Another said around -170 and the still another said around -170 for hockey moneylines. I would guess it is similar with MLB.
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Quote Originally Posted by CFBLMONSTER:
@baish2012 If you are taking college then I am not a big believer in taking moneylines with favorites. Too many games end up off the spread by more than 6 pts. I would not go above -200
That's what I was looking for. Thank you. Another said around -170 and the still another said around -170 for hockey moneylines. I would guess it is similar with MLB.
The fellas on the NBA forum and NHL forum seem to be settling in around -170 give or take as a maximum (wager to win $100) in those sports - keeping in mind the "risk of ruin" with smaller bankrolls.
But does that apply similarly with football?
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The fellas on the NBA forum and NHL forum seem to be settling in around -170 give or take as a maximum (wager to win $100) in those sports - keeping in mind the "risk of ruin" with smaller bankrolls.
If your planning on trying to do it as an investment you just have to find a mathematical edge in some way to where you determine if the odds are profitable in the long run
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If your planning on trying to do it as an investment you just have to find a mathematical edge in some way to where you determine if the odds are profitable in the long run
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