Some general questions for you guys

First of all, I would like to thank everybody that has helped me gain some understanding about sport betting these last few weeks. I appreciate your time and I truly feel at home here when everyone is trying to help each other out.

I want to eventually be able to bet on games based on my own research. I often see some of you guys saying "I currently have X team -5 against Y team" when the actual spread is -3 or whatever. My question is, how do you come up with the value on games? Out of the many college football games played per week, how do you narrow down which ones to wager on?

Any help would be much appreciated, and even some recommendations as far as reading material goes on how to develop my own betting strategy would be nice.

There are many ways to establish ' value " between teams.
The most commonly used is the Power Rating which is
nothing more than establishing a numerical value for all
teams  and measuring the differential to establish a
theoretical margin of victory and after adding a home
field advantage , cappers compare this result to the line
to attempt to find value. Some generate their own ratings
while most use ratings widely provided by others.
I do not use power ratings and do not recommend them
unless you can verify the quality , accuracy and method
used to derive them.
Phil Steele has a sample in his mag. Sagarin is widely
used for this as well as many others.
I do not believe that a generic number accurately reflects
the offensive / defensive matchups to a level necessary
to accurately predict the outcome of a contest, and that
a comprehensive analysis is necessary to determine
the likelihood that your conclusion will be correct.

Hope this helps 

how do you come up with the value on games?


here are a few Power Rating sources to use...
  *subtract / home team gets about 3 extra points
 
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf&sub=FBS

https://knology.net/~brucepayne/

https://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

https://linemakers.sportingnews.com/power-ratings?rating-sport=ncaaf

https://www.jhowell.net/cf/cf2014.htm

*note some are from the end of 2013


Building / maintaining your own is a SERIOUS time commitment
  *you can also generate a really good set using the Nugget's GOY lines

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Out of the many college football games played per week, how do you narrow down which ones to wager on?

depends on how much time you have...

easiest / most time efficient -  situational style

  *look for favorable / tough spots in a schedule to play or fade a team.....> look ahead / bounce-back / sandwich games +++

simple example >

week 2...Texas at home vs BYU (embarrassed the Horns LY 40-21)
   let's say Texas won but played poorly vs NT week 1...BYU off
   long road trip to UConn....where they won big (you also note
   they have a tough game vs Houston in 5 days)
    Texas with a HUGE game vs UCLA the next week....so they
     really need this one to build confidence / avoid getting killed
     by the Bruins......there will also be TREMENDOUS pressure
     on Strong here....as their next HG will be vs Baylor OCT 4

SO....say you like Texas here
  1)  WHAT is a good number?
  2)  WHEN can I get it?

ANSWER :  let's say these 2 are about even...given the HF... Texas maybe 'should be' favored by 3-4 or so
  *knowing that Texas is likely to be a big public favorite you MUST
    bet this the MINUTE it comes out....if you wait until LATER in
    the week and bet it at 7 or more you are an IDIOT  
       *1st line is Sunday afternoon/nite between 4-6 ??

note: this is all you need to do really....if time allows >
  * how does Texas O match-up vs BYU D?.....and vice-versa
  *how has Strong's teams played in this spot?....how about
    Bronco's?

another >

week 3   
    Miss St (.off 2 home blow outs) looks to be a TD+ favorite at S. Alabama ... .....BUT with a road game with LSU on deck
  *quickly...
     1)  how has Miss St performed in this spot?
          as a non-conf favorite....esp on road /esp with SEC on deck
           answer: Mullen's teams are tough on weaker teams
                      but struggle vs tough teams...but have not done well
                      in non-SEC / esp  with SEC on deck
  
     2)  how about S Bama?
           as a dog to big schools?.....
             also.....with a (winnable) conf game on deck? in their 1st
             HG?     
               answer; they look to be tough....in their short history
                3-0 ATS vs big schools....2-0 vs SEC

SO.....it seems like S Bama might be a play....
  now :  how much do we need to bet them?
                at this point at least 7
     
WHEN.....can you get 7+ ?     
     *note different here
 
ANSWER:  you are most likely to get the best number EARLY    

  *usually you bet the dog LATE.....the favorite EARLY
    here....MIss St does not figure to be a big public play....so the
    line (should) move in favor of the dog
 
$$$  if you F-UP......and  miss the early number.....MOVE ON......do not bet the bad number just because you liked S Bama
   *waiting until the end of the week and betting S Bama at 4 or so means once again you are an idiot....a triple idiot if you can't understand why you are losing......a quadruple super dumb-a-s-s
idiot if you are chasing your losses.....................

note:  I am not (necessarily) recommending these spots....just using as examples 
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as you have more time.....and develop more expertise
maybe introduce more factors....
  *the best way is what works for you and takes advantage of your strengths/ avoids your weaknesses

The guys that do this for a living are MATH guys....
  *they develop / maintain a solid set of PR numbers ....then 'buy' teams when value presents itself.....market style.....2-3 points suggests value....then consider the match-up ....situational stuff...and technical (historical records ATS in a similar spot)

BOL Big Steve............
    
 

The highlight in red is something ALL should remember,
as most handicappers have the basic premise correct,
but tend to disregard the value ( or lack of it ) at a given
price. Value or lack of it determines the risk that you
are forced to assume when you initiate a wager.
BA is absolutely correct, if value is not present , pass on the wager.

bigsteve: It should be noted that computer guys like
                  Sagarin are only 50 % correct vs the
                  spread. Be careful. !!!!!!
                  Sagarin is most commonly used by the public.
                  So I would caution you again on using power
                  ratings that you have not personally verified
                  for quality and accuracy.

Well steve i'll try to help the best that i can. Over the last few years and my wife will agree with me on this i've probably watched too much college football{ I passed up loving from the wife to watch South Alabama-Hawaii and i didn't have a bet on the game} So by watching and betting these games i have a decent feel for these teams. A guy came into 1 of my threads LY on a Saturday and he might have said this as an insult but i'm not sure he said"Packers you are the best capper at covers betting on teams and games no one cares about} I take that as a compliment

For example LY Ohio was a 4 pt fave vs Akron and this was a few weeks after Akron beat Michigan{I don't care what the score was Akron basically beat Michigan} and when looking at the line i said where's the 1 to go in front of the 4? Most people have watched 1 Akron game the last 3 years and it was the game vs Michigan. Now Ohio being a 14 pt fave would've been a bit much but IMO they should've been an 8 or 9 pt fave

Steve at least IMO you get most of this by experience. You have to find what works for you.  bookieassassin and others use power ratings i myself don't. What works for bookie doesn't work for me and vise versa

As for how many games will i wager on and how i narrow it down. the games i bet are games where the line is where i want it. There are weeks i have 8 plays others 2. If i like say Oklahoma on Monday at -14 if that line is at -16 i won't bet it

Steve i hope i helped and BOL this season

Be aware of what everyone knows, but dont necessarily follow. EVERYONE is rarely on the correct side. Stats and trends are useful, but learn to use your eyes & gut.

To get some information on handicapping ideas , check
out a site called Football Study Hall .
BA turned me on to this site and you might just find an
angle or two that might get you started in developing
your own strategy.

Best of Luck to you this season.

Dont let the previous weeks results fool you. Teams are rarely as good or bad as they looked last week (sometimes they are of course). Beware the favored road team that just looked awesome the week before against mediocre competition (especially the 1st month of the season)

 

That wouldnt be the game when Geno Smith and crew showed up hearing heisman talk after going 5-0 and throwing like 27 tds vs no picks would it? Walked into a 35-7 h time arse whippin and 49-14 final I believe.....Their offense wasnt as good as shown and their defense had been skating on thin ice. What was the line? WV -6 maybe?

 

bws

It was WV -4
I remember clearly because I said to myself, "that number ia too good to be true", and then I still max bet the damn thing.... Good times

" I often see some of you guys saying "I currently have X team -5 against Y team" when the actual spread is -3 or whatever."

Thank you everybody so much for taking the time to write all of that useful information out!

I think I like the idea of my strategy including some power ratings as well as just having a feel for the game based on my own opinions as well as situational type stuff as some of you laid out. I've always been an NFL guy so I'm newer to college football. Until I am much more familiar with college football(which will take much time of watching games) I will have to rely on my own gut as well as stats to determine which teams I wish to bet on. I will also look into the various insights you guys and many others have on this board to help me determine what matchups I like.

Just like anything else in life, it's hard to know what you're doing until you JUST DO IT.

Good advice above and these guys although can be hecklers are good cappers on this thread.Good Luck man.I wouldn't wish anyone the road I went through, but life could be a lot worse.I like to hear why someone wagers a game if I don't know them well.I won't say any names but there are sometimes I think he's actually making that play for that stuuupid reason then the exact same guy I will think" Yep, that's damn clever..he s sharp" U just got to do research yourself.There s many ways u can do this and I'm guilty we can argue less about meaning juvenile shz and more about how we can win.