I posted this in response to his thread. I just had to post it as a stand alone thread. I have been around this for 50 years. Some years better than others. I never started winning consistently until I started to establish some personal rules or guidelines that I hold sacred.
Here is my response in his post:
"" 70, but who is counting
If you are, or wanna be, a handicapper. (not the same as gambler) you are going to have to develop certain skills and a LOT of self discipline (I call them my personal RULES). You start with money management because even good cappers can have a bad streak. Live to bet another day.
Don't play too many games. It's hard enough to find 2-3 value plays a week. Sure, there are times when you might like 5-6. When that happens, make a list of your leans, rank them, and then taper your wager amounts. Put more on your top 2 or 3, and less on the next 2-3. You don't have to bet every game. The real goal is to make money. Keep your eye on the prize.
Don't ever think you are a professional....... you are not. Play within your self. (Clint said it best: A man has to know his limitations)
Learn how to evaluate matchups, this is your only chance. The books are very very good. If you can understand how two teams matchup, find the advantage there, then you have an edge on the public bettors. The books aim for the public bettors.
Bad teams are bad teams, Good teams are good teams. Good coaches are good coaches. Bad coaches are bad coaches... Always look for an edge in those areas.
In football.... The QB is the most important player on the field. Steve Wynn said it best: "In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king" A good QB is essential in today's football game.
Don't beat yourself up too much when you lose. Don't break your arm patting yourself on your back when you win. You can be very successful winning 2 out of 3. Nobody wins 70% NOBODY. In fact, it's hard to hit over 75% just picking the winner, without the spread.... try it sometime. (IF you pick every game)
Never put too much weight on a teams last bad or good performance. Books use that perception to set their lines against the public for the next week.
Your bet has nothing to do with who wins or loses a game. It has nothing to do with which teams you like or hate. That's a sure way to get to take advantage of a "reload bonus" It has to do with VALUE. Value is found where you find a matchup advantage for a team that is greater than the books line.
I have more, but you have to do these things well before you are worthy Grasshopper. ""
Hot Forum Topics
