Louisville vs Southern Mississippi
Southern Miss has a strong rushing attack that ranked 21st in the country while averaging 203.4 yards per game. They also ranked in the Top-20 nationally in turnover margin and rushing defense, which should make for a nice matchup with the Cardinals’ strength. Bilal Powell for Louisville used his blend of size and speed to rush for 1,330 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. The offensive line certainly works to his advantage, with Powell possessing the speed and vision to hit the holes his line opens and the patience to wait for those holes to develop. Southern Miss relies heavily on Austin Davis both in the passing game and on the ground. Davis finished the season strong, passing for eight scores and rushing for four more while throwing only one interception over the last four games. On the season, the junior passed for 2,898 yards and 18 scores while chipping in 10 rushing touchdowns. Louisville has some questions going into the bowl at the most important position, as senior Adam Froman is getting over a thigh bruise and his backup, senior Justin Burke dealing with back spasms. No matter who starts, the goal is to get the ball to Powell or tight end Cameron Graham. Froman took the bulk of the snaps and averaged 204 yards per game through eight games while throwing 11 touchdowns. This doesn’t appear to be a matchup that favors Louisville’s strengths. While the Cardinals boast one of the nation’s most productive RBs in late-blooming sr. Bilal Powell (121 ypg rushing on 6.3 ypc), Southern Miss counters with a somewhat underrated defense that, despite permitting 40 ppg over the last 5, has held teams to a mere 113 ypg on the ground (No. 13 in the country). And Louisville’s own stop unit seems ill- equipped to deal with the well-balanced Golden Eagle attack (255 ypg passing, 203 ypg rushing, 38 ppg).
To compensate for a lack of overall depth on defense, Strong & coordinator Vance Bedford (also from Urban Meyer’s Gator staff) employ a myriad of almost constant blitzes that have produced a whopping 38 sacks. But that strategy figures to backfire against USM, as quick-thinking jr. QB Austin Davis is not just an accurate passer (64% last 2 campaigns; 51 career TDP vs. only 16 ints.), but also very mobile (436 yards & 10 TDs rushing this season). Plus, Davis is well- protected (Eagle OL has allowed only 16 sacks TY) and gets good ground support from young RB duo of RS frosh Kendrick Hardy & soph Desmond Johnson (combined 1364 YR & 15 Tds). Southern Miss lost three times in conference play but all three misses were very close games. The Golden Eagles scored nearly 38 points per game this season, more than Louisville scored in all but two games this season. Southern Miss had very average defensive numbers but they allowed just 3.6 yards per carry, much better than Louisville did despite the drastic differences in the overall defensive numbers. The great offense hurt the defensive figures for the Eagles with more opportunities to put up yards. Louisville also faces some distractions as Coach Strong was a serious candidate for some of the marquee openings. Southern Miss is a high scoring team that averaged 38 points per game this season and scored 41 points or more on 7 occasions. Southern Miss did control the ball (80 plays per game) and quarterback Austin Davis does not turn the ball over (just 6 interceptions on 410 pass attempts), so the Eagles do have a better than average attack. Southern Miss should be able to run the ball well, as the Eagles are 0.3 yards per rushing play better than average since Kendrick Hardy became the main back in week 7 and Louisville’s defense is below average defending the run (5.1 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp).
If previous post-season experience has any bearing on the outcome of a bowl game, then the wrong team is definitely favored here. Southern Miss lands in Florida playing its ninth consecutive bowl and third in a row under current head coach Larry Fedora. Meanwhile, Louisville is making its first trip to the alleys after missing out three straight years under the disastrous Steve Kragthorpe regime, making them a ‘bowl virgin’. First-year coaches are just 29-46-1 ATS in bowl games – including 7-16 ATS versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss, while ‘bowl virgin’ favorites are just 22-31 ATS. The ‘Ville doesn’t exactly stand at the head of the class either when it comes to grabbing the post-season green, going 2-7 ATS in its last nine tries as bowlers (1-5 ATS if the Cards are playing off a win). Even worse, bowlers off a loss in which they scored 45 or more points are a miserable 2-8 ATS, and Big East bowlers in general have bungled their way to a combined 3-10 ATS mark versus a foe off a SU loss. The Golden Eagles counter with a 4-1 ATS record as bowl dogs versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win and a 3-1 ATS mark against Big East foes. Much has been made of Louisville head coach Charlie Strong’s 12th-ranked defensive unit but they’d better show up with their lunch pails as USM’s double-deuce offense rushes and passes for more than 200 YPG. With Southern Miss looking to avenge a 25-23 loss last year at Louisville, it will be a good idea to fade the Bowl Virgin favorite Redbirds and take flight with the more seasoned group of bowlers.
It’s not hard to make a case for the early bowl games to go Over the total. We see it every year – the defenses tend to lose more than the offenses following the post-regular season layoff. All three bowl games on Saturday were high scoring affairs that flew over the total. All three winning teams scored at least 40 points. Two of the three early bowls flew Over the total before the start of the fourth quarter, easy ‘rocking chair’ winners. This is nothing new or different. Last year, there were six bowls played before Christmas. Those bowls produced 63, 69, 74, 64, 64 and 55 points, cashing one Over ticket after the next. All six winning teams scored at least 35 points, and four of them had 40+. Only one losing team scored less than 20, just as we’ve seen in the early bowl games this year. Even without the prevailing trends, it’s not hard to make a case for this game to fly Over the total. Southern Miss has been an Over machine all year, cashing seven Over tickets in their last eight games. The Eagles play at an extraordinarily fast pace, running no-huddle uptempo offense for the full 60 minutes. They’ve scored 50, 59, 31, 46, 49, 41, 43 and 41 points in their last eight ballgames. But the Golden Eagles lost games down the stretch in which their offense produced 43, 49 and 50 points. Louisville hung 40 on Rutgers in their season finale and they’re quite capable of trading points with Larry Fedora’s squad tonight in optimal conditions for fireworks – indoors, on turf.
3* Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +3
1* Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML +125
1* Louisville/Southern Mississippi OVER 59 (hook)
.......................bud!
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