The Beauty Pageant Series Games

Semi-Important Games for voters in the Beauty (Pageant) Championship Series

Arkansas --

Razorbacks an elite team at home. The record bears out they are an average team on the road. They will win going away here vs Volunteer team that is struggling to move the ball to even THINK about a score, let alone convert in the redzone. Anyone who is entertaining thoughts of the Razorbacks upsetting LSU on the road are seriously deluded. Tigers have two weeks to prepare for the Razorbacks. Next two weeks are cupcakes at home (W. Kentucky and Miss.). There will be a lot of “fluff” press like “LSU facing a Big Test vs Arky” and “What if LSU Loses…?” type headlines. Aint gonna happen. All that will happen will be a blowout loss for the Razorbacks. The Tigers are as a big a LOCK in Baton Rouge as you will get. Saturday however is a different story. Look for Arky to roll here, and this will contribute to doubts in “voters’ minds” (if they use them) whether LSU can handle Arkansas. They can and will. LSU is a LOCK to destroy Arkansas. The only good Arky will do for LSU is ADD to their computer points by defeating a 1 loss team. But that’s off in the distance from this weekend.

Arky -13/13.5/-14/-14.5

TCU +15

Horned Frogs are surging now. True this game is fortunately (for BSU’s sake) on the blue turf. These two are destined to follow each other to a new conference—whether the Big 12 or the Big East. They both have proven (given their few chances) they belong in the upper echelon conferences (although the Big East is looking to be a bad choice with the exit of W. Vir and others). TCU beating Wisconsin handily last yr.; Boise with an eye catching win over a good Georgia team, and a win over Oklahoma as a ‘signature win’ that might help them in the Big 12. They have travelled and beaten Va Tech last yr and Georgia this year, and they play headsy football.  (I have no idea what will happen as far as what conference they go, and besides not being overly interested, don’t feel it matters, except for them to reach National Championship games in the future). They both seem like perfect Big 12 teams, and the 2 that the conference should add, but who gives a shit except the pageant voters for next year.

Boise will deliberately be left out in whatever scenario, because of the way it is. Many would like to see a senior QB like K. Moore getting the shot on the big stage, but it is difficult to pass up a 1 loss team from the Big 12 or SEC. They have kicking issues and injuries on defense they will have to correct to compete with an elite team from one of those conferences. They can do it—but they WILL NOT be given the chance. A narrow win over TCU will not help much, given TCU lost a few narrow games in the early season to a pair of in-state rivals. I like their defense to make this a very tight game all the way to the end. Waaa---y too many points here folks, in what is a rivalry game between two excellent programs who are both busting to show it, and have done so in their few opportunities.

TCU +13.5/+14/+14.5/+15

Cardinal lucky to have this game at home. Stanford does have an impressive O-line, yet an average defense (whatever that means) with very average pursuit speed. Interestingly Oregoan has more California recruits than Stanford—STAN—41 Cali recruits; ORE—53 Cali recruits. I believe it has to do with recruiting focus, and also the easier entrance requirements of Oregon. Hard to get into Stanford. The QB is a #1 draft pick (if he wants to go there) and he is from Texas. Oregon recruits are from Ore, Ariz, Cali and Texas. The Ducks’ speed and offensive schemes are the best there is in the PAC 12. Stanford comes to play every week—there are no sea level games where they float on in (as Auburn did last year). Missing a few receivers, but the run game is pushing even USC’s talented big men off the line, and they should move the ball well. This is unchartered territory for Stanford, and not sure how they will respond. They did respond to USC’s stark challenge, and this Oregon D is not as crisp and complex as a Kiffin-esque defense. Lean STANFORD in a tight one, simply because they participated in the best game of the year, and responded down the stretch in OT. I think they keep Oregon’s O on the sidelines for too long to develop all important momentum and rythym.

STANFORD -2.5/-3/ BUY DOWN

The Crimson Tide has set the standard for all other SEC teams who have sailed in after them, riding their TIDE and following their strategies for recruiting and coaching. They have had to deal with these bastardly sons of bitches now to remain on the high stage--sometimes excellence creates its own challenges. LSU and Auburn would not have had their recent successes w/o Alabama paving the way. On Saturday they will revisit Miss St, and it appears to be a bad time to face Alabama on the FB field. Last yr the score was 30-10 and this year will be even worse, as Miss St will probably not find the endzone when the clock ticks away this game. Beauty voters appear to have learned their lesson when they dropped an elite team like Oklahoma too far down, and this week kept the Tide in the top tier of gridiron Champion hopefuls.

Final Prediction:

Ala 38 Miss St 6

ALABAMA -16.5/-17/-17.5

Oklahoma will destroy Oklahoma State.

Bama can be proud the road to the Championship goes through Tuscaloosa; they played well enough to win, but didn't capitalize. This is a good time to travel away from the pressure and fix all the bad feelings and play like men--and Champions. It is not as a fan that I say they will play well here. I previously selected them as a fan--and I was concerned about LSU, which is why I didn't wager ( I don't wager as a fan). Here, I would wager. If 17 'feels' like too much. It probably isn't. Bettors will shy away from Bama after the "sadness of defeat." Like Warren Buffet says, "Buy when others are retreating."

Oregon has a right to believe they deserve a NC bid. They were in it last year. They played LSU on the road to open--and were outplayed in the trenches, and found no open seams until late. They also made critical special teams errors against arguably the best special teams in the country (LSU has very good S.T.). This is new territory for Stanford. Attitude is everything in all facets of life. An Oregon win--would that surprise anyone? Stanford is a lean--but I fear Oregon, and usually fears are better wagers than steam plays, and riding the FAVS.

I watched the Okie St/K St game, and saw a lot of issues / problems that a team like Oklahoma can exploit. Okie St has had a bad time of it vs Okla, and encourage others to ignore the polls and pundits and back the Sooners--mark it on your calendasr. Arky rolls.

Quote Originally Posted by onenitestand:

Gin and Tonic(Lime twist)

ARKANSAS -14

STANFORD NO PLAYas expected, twas 'new territory' for them and their defense not up to the task.

ALABAMA -17 PUSH--NO PLAYPush is a win.

TCU +15 These DD dogs are now winning. Time to jump on 'em . Wyoming was another I had slated.

Looks like LSU vs Oklahoma/Oregon or Alabama in the NC--no idea really.