The Key to the Armed Forces Bowl

10-4 for + 17.8 units YTD in Bowl games so far: 

Going with Baylor -3 (-115) and UNDER 44.   Why?  Baylor despite some players not active for this game are much deeper than AF and can overcome that IMO, much like W. Kentucky did as that was all we heard that no one was left for the Hill toppers.     Baylor can run the ball despite being pass happy and I see their defense handling the triple option and pulling away late something like 21 - 14, or 28 - 14.  I don't see many FGs and possibly some missed PATs.

It also seems the forum here is predominantly on AF which always concerns me.  If AF covers I wont be shocked but I truly see Baylor as a step above them in talent and they should be motivated for this Bowl game based on their opponent being the AF Academy. 

GL with whatever you take!   

BoL!!

 Couldn't have said it better!

COMPLETELY AGREE WITH YOU 

@KeyMaster

@RedLambo207

@Capppro69

@Teaser78

Thanks!           I also played Middle Tenn + 7 this morning, they play Saturday versus San Diego State, the line dropped now to 6.5, not that I moved it, LOL but I think this line is too high and will drop further, something to consider or wait to see what happens, but I have been looking ahead for value and I see this as one.  

Middle Tennessee + 7

Please note I rate/play games from 1 to 5 units with 5 the highest.  All games are 3 units unless otherwise designated. 

With you on Baylor! 

Seeing a lot of AF love, most keying on the weather.  Yes, it'll be cold in Fort Worth tonight, but skies clear and this is Division 1 football, both teams will be well prepared for that.  I don't think it'll have any impact on Baylor's offensive game plan.  They have the superior skill players and none of the opt outs are on the offensive side of the ball. 

Both teams love to control the clock with the run, but the difference is that Baylor CAN throw and has plenty of tools to take advantage of a undersized Falcon secondary.  Also taking Blake Shapen OVER 145.5 yards passing.   BOL 

@KeyMaster

 I don't know much about CF, so let's do it

@DeTerMiNeD

 Exactly!!!! 

@bet-to-win

Great, don't go nuts, its a marathon, not a sprint!  LOL

Hope to see you at the Cashier window! 

The key is who is more motivated. If Baylor doesn’t care then all the talent in the world won’t matter.

@DeTerMiNeD

 yeah, I don.t see the weather as being a huge factor,  winds are 20 mph.

@jtoler

True and as I stated in my initial write up that I believe Baylor will be motivated for this game.  Why, its a nationally televised Bowl game, The Armed Forces Bowl played right before Christmas with friends, girlfriends and families watching them play the Armed Forces, Air Force....not some nickel and dime school. 

I think the adrenaline will be flowing and they will want to have a solid showing, maybe even win. 

@KeyMaster

BOL! Fellas

So to re- key todays plays: 

Baylor -3 (-115)

UNDER 44

Middle Tenn + 7 (Saturday)     

3 units on each, I may elevate Mid Ten as I continue to cap that game before Saturdays kickoff

Nearly 60% tickets are Baylor ML but 97% of the cash on AF.

Agree with what you’re saying except for one major aspect which is the weather. Winds sustained north of 20mph makes this a ground game. Obviously that hugely favors AF not only bc of the offense, but bc they are weak in the secondary. Have actually been strong against the run. Temps of 20 and wind chill around 0-10. Also favors AF. Think this is absolutely a factor tonight. 

AF outright, confidence level of 0/10 in these bowl games 

Love the under though!! 

The big Donut yesterday going 0-2

YTD in Bowls now 10 - 6 for + 11.10 units.   Back at it now and looking at Todays Bowl action 

The motivation factor i think is the hardest to cap a game on. S bama now baylor. Both games were no shows by one  side

you can make an educated guess or you have the info no one else has 

@soup-can

You are correct,  I thought Baylor would be motivated but they clearly looked lackadasical.  

    Oh well, need to move on, more games to cap today

GL this Bowl season @KeyMaster

Happy Holidays & Mele Kalikimaka