The single most bizarre spread on the board in Week 1: The UAB BLAZERS -13.5 vs. Alabama A&M(FCS)

They play Alabama A&M (FCS) in their first game of the year at home.

I have little info on Alabama A&M of course (try as I might to find something meaningful, they appear to be your typical FCS pushover), outside of the fact that when they get fed to the FBS they get demolished.

Here are the scores of their last several (a blowout losses):

55-0 Auburn

55-0 MTSU

52-10 Cincinnati 

42-14 UAB (in 2014)

66-7 Georgia Tech

Their wins, typically 4 a year are in conference and of little worth in determining what this team is, because their opponents are awful.

What do we know about UAB? They have a ton of Junior College players and transfers and scrimmaged last year waiting for this game.

I don't want to be a homer and take UAB, a team that hasn't played a game in 3 years but what is the stance we take on this game and should we bet it?

Which angle do we take:

1) All the pressure is on UAB and having not played a game in 3 years they could actually lose the game, feeling the pressure of the moment, coupled with the inexperience, so +13.5 is golden, even vs. an FCS team?

OR

2) Despite the team they are playing hasn't played a single down together, Alabama A&M will do as it always will, get crushed by their FBS team that paid them to play them and they'll focus in division on wins, happily walking away with the paycheck. Lay the 13.5 which is a .5 under 2 TD's, a nice discount. 

I'm assuming the crowd and locals will be into this comeback season so that supports them but also adds to the pressure.

Does ANYONE have a play on this game or opinion? I'm leaning UAB at the moment but would like to hear some back and forth.

    I took the UAB -9.5 opener on 5D.  Of the 4 wagers I made then on FBS vs. FCS openers, they all jumped immediately by 2.5 and 3 pts.  UAB has been bet up another point since then.  The line came from Massey Ratings; what Massey really used since no football since 2014 is tough to say.  I think there is some decent continuity with HC Clark and his staff.  As you said, they've been together and practicing for quite some time now despite no real games vs. their peers.  The staff has done a nice job of bringing in some reasonable talent given the situation.  I do not think they will be the worst FBS team by the end of the 2017 season.  Bottom 5, sure, probably.  I think the defense is ahead of the offense in terms of talent / somewhat known quantities in their personnel.  I have UAB at a 48.0 PR# in my preseason ratings (similar scale to Sagarin).  Alabama A&M is in a bad FCS conference (SWAC) and is not a very good team even in conference play as you mentioned.  Talent wise they should NOT stay within two TDs of UAB.  That's really the bottom line for me.  Alabama A&M's final 2016 Sagarin Rating suggests that the line should be much higher.  Personally I think the line should be closer to 17 to 21.  I think UAB will get the feel good win in their first game back.  Scheduling this particular opponent for the game 1 return to football was not by accident.  I think they expect to win this game and that starts with HC Clark and the mindset that he instills in his players.

Boy would I have loved 9.5! Kudos to you for getting this 4 points less!

UAB's over Under season win total is 2.5. If this isn't one of the 2/3 wins, which is???

Chris Fallica (yes he's a bit of a mainstream homer but he has some good opinions) has them OVER at 4 wins.

That means this is a mandatory (blowout?) home opener? 

 

Let's hope! I'm more confident in taking UAB now.

BTW, tremendous value on this game's Total once 5D releases it.

Really the only way I see this not being a UAB cover is if QB Erderly has a terrible game.  But I think he'll be fine against this opponent.  Big O-line should lean on the A&M defense to help out their QB in his 1st start.

TD

If he has a bad game and a good O-Line, just ground and pound against what should be an inferior D-Line. 13.5 still should be covered even with such an approach given A&M just looks like it wants out of these FBS games. I wonder what the spread for the last match-up in 2014 was. Covers doesn't even have UAB's tram page.

Found this....  

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/alabama-am-uab-odds-september-13-2014

Between 35.5 and 36.5 at 5D & BOL at the time.  Pretty consistent with what Steele lists in his mag, -34.

Holy shi*! -34??? Wow, 13.5 is....uh...looking real nice.

A1. Get your bet in now and you won't have to worry! The entire point of the thread IS TO TIP other cappers off who might otherwise not play it.

BURN the books...

Scal, that's a hell of a find! Vegas won't have that line until mid-August I'm guessing and pretty sure nowhere close to -13.5.

I only play here in Nevada. Lose a lot of opportunities not using online books but it is cleaner this way. If I saw that line here would be all over it!

I was looking at the Missouri game as well. It opened at -22.5 and shot up to -26.5 on 5 Dimes. Funny that we are on all the same games out of the entire board! 

Not going CRAZY laying 26.5 but I think they will blow them out and will try to run up the score after last season's debacle. I won't get into specifics because I don't think I'll post it.

Appreciate it. I understand what you mean by 'cleaner'. I KNOW I would would have a far bigger role if I could only bet with cash in hand. I'd lose a lot of my exotics, but I'd have far more discipline putting the actual cash over the counter. Hopefully in the next year or two sports betting will be legal and I can do that here in the east.

Thanks to Scal for bringing it to our attention, and TD21 for filling in the gaps!

Cooler, what's up bud?  Hope you have a strong 2017 season!  And you know it on the obscure games.  As I've said on here before, I've attended a lot of small college football games (and Power 5 as well for that matter) over the years with my Dad's various coaching stops at the time.  I don't get to many games these days, but still monitor the Group of 5 conferences and lower divisions closely.  Overall -- Best line value you'll find is usually in these games.  

Scal,

    Will try to post more.  Usually don't have time to elaborate on my thoughts.  Just post my picks and wins/losses and that's about it.  

TD

Just come on in my threads and say your piece. I'm fine with that.

Cooler 

a1 - even at 31, it may cover easily! 

Well I can't go in GD so I'll post it here. Doug Polk is looking good in a field of 7,000+.

He's moving on to Day 3 with 300,000+ chips. Chip leader has about 600,000.. 

That's as good as we can ask for. Still a LONG LONG LONG shot in a field this big and he can drop at any moment but at 1000-1, all we ask is that we have an premier pro's chip stack grow so he can control a table of fish:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BWb9QRzngrn/

The current total is still too high IMO.