Tuesday FBS Football

YTD: 33-30-

Three games this evening, but only like two.

Troy (1-5-0) vs USA  (2-4-0) -11.5 & 54.5 Hancock Whitney Stadium. 

The Trojans travel 168 miles to the University of South Alabama to take on the Jaguars.  Troy has the H2H advantage winning 7-3 SU the L10 mtgs as well as owning a 7-3 ATS during those games.  They have also beaten USA both SU and ATS in their last 6 mtgs.  The total in the last 10 is 2-7-1.  The line has gone anywhere between -11 & -13.5 and appears to be settling around -11.5 (Thats what it was when I made my bet) and the total anywhere from 54 to 57 and was at 54.5 (again when I made my bets).  I like to check the history of the odds because you can learn much from it.  When you all looked at the Offensive and Defensive Stats it was hard to overlook the Ave. PPG for both teams which had Troy at 20.7 PPG and USA at 36.5 PPG.  However, I think that the Jaguars PPG is misleading at 36.5.  When looking at USA's past performance, their game against FCS school NWST was an anomaly winning that game 87-10, merely 13 points away from a Benjamin.  When you scratch that score from the overall the Ave. PPG for USA drops to a believable 26.4 PPG.  Taking that into consideration, the SU and ATS form both the last 10 and 6 mtgs and the Total score always hovering around the under at 2-7-1 I believe that the line is off.  Who wins?  Who cares, I only want to cover.

Paying Troy +11.5

BOLTA  

Cont.....

LT (2-3-0) -11.5 & 49 vs NMST (1-5-0)

Aggie Memorial Stadium

The second game I liked tonight pits the Bulldogs and the Aggies.  It should be a pretty warm and dry evening and the people in the Stadium should enjoy the Static Shock until the evening sets in and raises the Humidity.  Getting right to the gut of things, LT has a 6-2 SU win advantage, but the Aggies own the ATS advantage at 5-3 (and yes, I know that you can all see the Stats).  LT scores 24.6 PPG and allows 21.6 PPG, conversely NMST allows 38.4 PPG and scores 18.5 PPG.  Where things start to matter to me is that the Aggies love the run game, it just doesn't love the back is all.  NMST run game is only ranked 67th Nationally and a couple of clicks shy of the very bottom when it comes to Passing at #132.  The pass game truly suffers here with a completion percentage of 42% with a season high game of 56.3%.  LT's Overall Defensive is ranked 23rd, 65th against the Pass and !4th against the Rush game.  Again, NMST focuses mostly on the Run and get about 162 YPG but LT allows only 93 YPG.  Something will have to change tonight or this game is done before it starts.

Single Plays.

Playing;

LT -11.5 

LT Over 49 

BOLTA        

Best of luck and appreciate the write-ups!

Really like Troy+11.5

but they lose a qb in Sept

6-0 SU ATS can’t pass that 

@domer1

Best of luck Domer! I kinda like La Tech tonight as well. I thought about buying down to -11, but just couldn't pull the trigger. 

@SweetDickWormy

 Good no play for you bro